Not the Brexit Arms

[bearbehind]

Since BrexitArmsLandlady says she isn't starting anymore threads here's a place to discuss Brexit developments for those that still want to.

It never ceases to amaze me what a shambles this is.

The cabinet still can't even agree what we want, let alone what we're going to get.

You keep telling yourself that daisy, I guess it’s easier than admitting TM has had to go down this route as there’s simply no alternative.

She has walked a tightrope to appease remainers whilst respecting the vote to leave.

I think it's Leavers she's trying to appease while and the same time limiting the damage to as low a level as they'll let her get away with. Leavers don't care about the automotive or aerospace industries (fuck business) or the city (elites) They clearly don't give a shit about the peace in NI as it's obvious to anybody with two brain cells to rub together that the hard Brexit they want is completely incompatible with an invisible border. What is it exactly they do care about?

I think I got my answer to that on another thread. They only care about being OUT, it's an emotional act and doesn't have to make any sense and Remainers will never get it.

Exactly kenn

It's madness but Leavers are still convinced having no plan and no actual way of leaving is fine.

The White Paper is offering sod all and that's going to get negiotated down to half of sod all ie, remaining in SM /CU as it's the only way we can have frictionless trade.

Can't see that she's trying to appease Remainers. She's just trying to make it as un-batshit as she can. And failing. Because it's batshit.

The question of Brexit is a national issue and not a party issue. The Conservatives have shown there is too much disunity in government to deal with Brexit. Therefore, the main parties should take politics out of Brexit, which should now be negotiated on a cross party basis. It would take out the heat and it is likely a cross party negotiation would produce a Brexit the UK and EU could accept and deliver. There would still be trouble from the headbangers, but I can’t see any other way.

There's no appetite for a "national government " to sort this shit. Corbyn was too grand even to share a platform with Cameron to campaign for Remain. Probably because he was a not very secret Leave supporter.
Ain't going to happen now.
This is squarely caused by voting Leave.

Mrs May can write whatever she wants on the 'white paper' but if they cross the red lines of the EU basic principles they will be rejected by the EU.
Since no one REALLY knows how many people actually come in and go out of the UK there is a possibility for some 'fudge' but the CU and SM HAVE to remain as stated by the EU. A destruction of the EU should be absolutely unthinkable as weakening it would allow the likes pf Russia to 'annexe' the eastern countries and the possible failure in resolve against ISIS and any further large scale immigration from Africa and elsewhere. The childlike squabbling over some words in Westminster is nothing compared to the possible break up of the EU.

It suits Russia and the US to pick apart the EU and gather up the pieces. Both doing pretty well at it and we helped them by voting Leave.
Foolishness.

With Mr Trump at the helm, with his ability to contradict himself in the same day is one aspect, and the attempts by Russia to destabilise as much as possible. Where will the next vial of Novichok appear?
I would anticipate a 'blind eye' approach to get it out of Russia and into the UK with relatively 'nobody' taking it to some place. Even more 'panic' could be created by putting it in the (carefully gloved) hands of ISIS.

Just when you think TM is starting to talk a bit of sense:-

I know there are some who have concerns about the ‘common rule book’ for goods and the customs arrangements which we have proposed will underpin the new UK-EU free trade area. I understand those concerns

But the legacy of Brexit cannot be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland that unpicks the historic Belfast Agreement.

It cannot be the breaking up of our precious United Kingdom with a border down the Irish Sea. And it cannot be the destruction of integrated supply chains and just-in-time processes on which jobs and livelihoods depend.

She tops it off with this:-

She also warned the Government could not accept an amendment by pro-EU Tories which would keep Britain in a customs union with the EU after Brexit.

This would be the ultimate betrayal of the Brexit vote. It would remove our ability to have an independent trade policy at all, conceding Britain’s role on the global stage as a force for free trade and endangering people’s jobs and livelihoods. This Government will never stand for that,” she said.

Which just goes to show we haven't moved passed 'cake and eat it'

She has also said this plan is not up for negotiation, either here or in Brussels, it’s this deal or no deal. Let’s see what happens next.

I would say 27:1 that the EU 'principles' take precedent.
She is still doing that old 'wild west' trick of throwing a hat in the air and shooting at it to keep it up. Eventually there will be no hat of course.
How long does the UK have before the EU simply says 'enough is enough, go now, and leave what you owe at the door on the way out'.

She has also said this plan is not up for negotiation, either here or in Brussels, it’s this deal or no deal.

And there lies the problem.

This plan is not going to accepted by the EU because it compromises the SM /CU and we're not going to leave with no deal so something is going to have to give.

Leave is just being dumbed down at each turn.

The next big speech will be to announce staying in SM /CU.

I think some Countries would be content to accept that deal though.

'enough is enough, go now, and leave what you owe at the door on the way out'

Why would they say that, all they need to say is ‘no’ to the deal next week and if TM doesn’t negotiate as she has said she won’t then we have to walk. Will she stay true to her word because we now have a plan and it will be clear for all to see if it changes.

She has laid her cards on the table now if they don’t accept it I think she will be ousted and we will have someone else running the show. She has said out of the CU/SM from the get go and several times, I don’t think there is any going back on that while she is running the proceedings.

This should be the point that Labour galvanise but that’s looking slim.

Doesn't matter if "some countries" would accept that deal . Trade deals have to accepted unanimously.

Even if the Withdrawal Agreement itself manages to avoid any specific trade references, it still has to be approved by a majority of the E27. Which just puts off the cliff-edge, as these proposals would not get unanimous acceptance by the end of the transition period.

But it not even a detailed plan, it's full of waffle and fudges.

TM can't just say it's this or nothing because we are 'negotiating'.

The details need to be discussed and agreed but there are some fundamental breaches of EU policy which they cannot accept.

TBF I don't think even she believes it's going to be accepted by the EU so I'm not sure why Leavers are so convinced it will.

Doesn't matter if "some countries" would accept that deal confused. Trade deals have to accepted unanimously

I’m well aware of that, I was just saying I think there would be Countries that would accept it in its current form.

TM can't just say it's this or nothing because we are 'negotiating'.

She can if she is not prepared to back down on SM/CU.

Its probably not going to get past first base anyway. Hard brexit never goes away.

Mrs May is the one remaining drunk sitting at the bar at the pub, way after closing time and the landlord wants to lock up and go to bed.
One solution would be to give her the remainder of the bottle of beer/gin and sit her on the doorstep outside and lock up behind her.

For the EU, SM and CU are NOT negotiable, for very good reasons.
If it were turned into a 'free for all' it would severely weaken the EU, which the Bwrecksiteers may see as a good thing BUT it removes the capability of the positives of being a union, being security and a very significant force in world trade, upholding high standards.
The Northern European states particularly would do much better 'alone' in many respects but they are prepared to 'sacrifice' some of their success in business and technology in return for improved security (against war and terrorism). The Plucky Brits going it alone outside the EU when faced by stronger 'attacks' by Russia or whomever will not be able to EXPECT any assistance from the EU.

“It is non negotiable that freedom of movement will end. it is non negotiable that we are coming out of the customs union it s non negotiable that we will end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.'” TM

Apparently the paper has already been seen and discussed with Angela Merkel prior to the Chequers weekend.

It’s going to be an interesting few weeks.

OK, then it could be a massive conspiracy by the EU.
Simply by the EU standing still and doing relatively little, major companies with UK interests will shift to the EU and thrive, while the UK simply closes the door after they have gone.
Brilliant plan!

No, I don’t think conspiracy but would read that it could be possible for some slight movement?

Freedom of movement is a 'flexible' situation as it is easy to 'fudge' at governmental level. Only the UK Border force have any data on that so relatively easy to keep quiet.
Customs Union, Single Market and the ECJ are not possible to 'negotiate' in a practical way 'indefinitely'.
Besides , FoM from the EU into the UK will reduce drastically as the UK may not be able to provide jobs worth coming for due to lack of investment and taking the 'grey' market out of seasonal fruit picking etc. With all the redundant workers from EU based companies being 'available' the UK won't need pickers from abroad. Workers rights are set to be toned down when leaving the EU and already talk of 'workhouses'.

I think it boils down to three possibilities:

1. The EU doesn't accept the white paper and we default to a WTO Brexit which has been the plan all along.
2. The EU does accept the white paper, we have a 'soft' Brexit... 2i) ... which is as good as TM says and the matter is resolved. 2ii) ... which isn't as good as TM says (she falls) and we fight the next election (with a new leader) for a real Brexit against continued status as a colony.
3. TM caves, the EU dilute the white paper, it doesn't pass parliament and the Tories replace the PM with a Brexiteer to deliver a WTO Brexit.

So either we will get a real Brexit, a good deal or will have fight on another day. Still to early to say.

Would be interesting to hear at a general election if Jeremy Corbyn was pro being an EU colony or pro a real Brexit. Not sure his policy of not deciding which he is will stand up to an election campaign.

I don't think there is anything 'soft Brexit' about the white paper unless it has been written is such 'doublespeak that any statement can read 'yes or no'. Certainly the 'headline' phrases are totally at odds with the EU so unless the 'finer print' version (114 pages) actually contradict the headline versions it is definitely 'hard' Brexit.
Mrs May is trying to front a 'plan' that supports some unachievable rhetoric that will destroy the UK financially.
There is no point in electing anybody else, both major parties are split so it is not a Lab/Con divide it is largely a 5 way split with Lab split (2) Con split(2) and 'all the others' (1), differing views but not large enough to influence.