Not the Brexit Arms

[bearbehind]

Since BrexitArmsLandlady says she isn't starting anymore threads here's a place to discuss Brexit developments for those that still want to.

It never ceases to amaze me what a shambles this is.

The cabinet still can't even agree what we want, let alone what we're going to get.

Unless customs posts and HMRC are 'ready to go' organised and staffed etc there would be no freight leaving the UK until it is sorted out. The UK gov (HMRC and Customs) COULD waive goods from the EU into the UK through as a short term measure (obviously collecting no tax) which would be unsustainable for any significant amount of time.

Sacre this will be a subject on the agendas of Airlines that have any connection to the UK even if not UK based, Airport operators, Aircraft maintenance companies, UK based airlines, all private jet operators, all hobbies involving aviation, Pilots and their unions and the insurance industry. It will also be a topic to cover for holiday firms using air transport - check their booking small print for 29 March 2019 onwards.

Not as familiar with sea based oversight, but if that has any EU safety agency then the same will apply.

And what is HM Gov doing in the UK - currently advertising for a DExEU civil servant appointment (middling grade @£60-70k) to be responsible for aviation discussions with the EU, no aviation industry experience required.

My only hope is that the EU negotiators will continue to be open, fair and reasonable in their approach to the UK Gov's appalling negotiating so far.

According to the luscious Liam Halligan on Any questions on Friday , the Civil service are ready and able to deal with all and any customs issues as they have an up and running computer system to deal with it. Either he skim read the article , the civil service are bigging their project up and haven't actually tested it or he might have misunderstood

Only calling him luscious because he had a little moan about how he was routinely abused as the only Brexiteer on panels, he isn't actually my type at all , looks like the sort who would spend an awful lot of time getting ready to go out

They might have a computer system 'ready to go' but you can't stack 800 lorries up in a computer, you need customs booths and acres of tarmac to put them all while checking. Is there enough space at Dover?

thanks

So even if we leave with a deal with the EU flights to third countries can still be grounded?

Do I have this right?

54321 the last plan that was being floated was to extend operation stack around the M25 in both directions (can't see any issues with that at all ). It's insane how unprepared we are. I think they are hoping a convenient piece of land will pop up out of sea near Dover. With optional Britannia walking hand in hand with King Arthur while unicorns lay a customs building...

Well is there suitable infrastructure for that? Toilet and food facilities for all the drivers. The extra emissions from vehicles stop/starting and generally hanging around.

Well Dover is about 95miles away from the M25 , but stacking on the normal roads leading to Dover could cause chaos, I believe they already use the M20 ( or part of it ) when there are issues related to ferry or tunnel services. These issues tend to be short lived though, so adverse weather conditions, where it isn't possible for ferries to sail.

Someone mentioned on another thread that if the volume of freight traffic travelling through the port of Dover in a week took one whole minute extra each to process through customs then it would take an additional 6 days to get them all through, which is worrying to say the least.

Sacre unless we leave with a deal that includes the UK remaining a member of the European Aviation Safety Authority (EASA) we will have no internationally recognised aviation safety authority overseeing any aspect of UK aviation from the pilots flying to the mechanic who carries out routine maintenance to the manufacturers of any part in any aeroplane eg Airbus wings. And there will be no insurance cover either. We can set up our own equivalent to EASA but the UK aviation industry and Civil Aviation Authority have already said that is impossible in the timeframe available and not what that industry wants in any case.

EASA is an EU Agency so if we are to remain a member of EASA we will need to be a member of the EU under the current rules. EASA currently negotiates on behalf of all members with 3rd country aviation authorities. There will be no obligtion on those 3rd countries to extend what EASA has agreed to a newly separate UK so 3rd countries may want to renegotiate terms such as landing slots in their state or in the UK.

But try telling all that to the Brexit loonies in the Tory party, and they just shut their ears and go la, la, la, I'm not listening. I think TM is hoping to have Associate membership of the EASA, which I didn't think was possible, but the rules could be changed. That would almost certainly require oversight by the ECJ which is one of the Loonies red lines, but this week's meeting at Chequers might see that line rubbed out. Or it might be an Agatha Christie mystery and there might be blood on the carpet.

(In Agatha Christie murders it's very often the Doctor that did it.)

Sort of academic but Dover to Aylesford (nearest point on M25) is about 44 miles and possibly 47 minutes, using the M20. (AA route planner).
Not sure how many trucks go through Dover in a day but if you say 500 that represents a line around 15Km long, about 9 miles.

Sacre, if you're interested in the details on flights and regulation (and hey, none of us are really but the one of the joys of Brexit is that we've all found ourselves learning FAR more about this stuff than we've ever wanted to), the government impact analysis report is here:

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/380/380.pdf

The most relevant bit, if you don't want to plough through the whole thing, is on page 15 where the impact of "no deal" is discussed.

Frumpety - the 6 extra "days" to process because of just one extra minute's worth of paperwork was based on a single day's normal lorry traffic going through Dover (c8,500 per day ) - not a week!

Well is there suitable infrastructure for that? Toilet and food facilities for all the drivers.

Bearing in mind drivers from the UK will still be subject to EU driving time rules - so will need tacho-type proof of hours logged ....

@Pineapple.
Unless your work requires you to read these reports you are a 'sad' person. This is not a personal insult, and I for one thank you for researching it. It does however distract me from doing what I should be doing.
Has anyone found any equivalent properly reviewed 'discussion' stating that leaving the EU/CM IS a really good idea?
Once we get over the 'we won' and similar crap, what are the tangibly 'good' reasons to leave?

There isn't any.

@JWIM

But it's not just EASA membership right?

An aviation treaty will incorporate recognition of EASA but there are a host of other things in a treaty right?

So even if we leave the EU with a deal that retains EASA oversight and enforcement the UK still needs a treaty with the US doesn't it?

@PineappleSunrise

Thanks a lot!

Page 15 talks of EASA. but that's not enough is it? We still fall out of OpenSkies and a host of other treaties with third countries which we need to replace. Or do I have that wrong?

@Sacrebleu
There will undoubtedly be many more treaties that will need changing but even with the 'headline' problems being almost intractable delving into deeper murky depths is almost pointless.
In a strange way the 'threat' of a possible flare up of violence over the NI border is a significant reason to remain. If there had been no significant 'spin' at the time of the vote leaving the EU would hardly have come into it.

In a strange way the 'threat' of a possible flare up of violence over the NI border is a significant reason to remain.

For me, that was the key argument which easily overrode my desire to give two fingers to Cameron. How much traction does it have with Grease-Smug and Gove? None, I would imagine.

Sacre Yes, we may have to negotiate new aviation treaties.

There are over 700 different trade/transport agreements that the UK benefits from as an EU Member State. Legally they all fall away if the UK leaves the EU.

Legally now there is a word that underpins why leaving the EU is not as simple as implied pre/post Referendum by all those non Lawyer MPs etc.

The parliament report linked by @Pineapple suggests getting new treaties worked out just for that aspect could take up to 5 years.
A few years of 'no flying' would certainly help the pollution problem.

A few years of 'no flying' would certainly help the pollution problem.

Or exacerbate it, as people revert to even more inefficient methods ?