Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thanks

Placematking again!

Placemarking!

thanks red

Thanks red

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/29/davis-under-pressure-to-disown-criticism-of-civil-service-chief-on-brexit?__twitter_impression=true
David Davis downplays reports he might quit over Brexit civil servant
Minister seeks to defuse row after backlash to claims he wanted Oliver Robbins sidelined

After unexpected interventions from the cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood and May’s close aide Gavin Barwell defending Oliver Robbins, an aide to Davis said on Sunday evening that no such threats had been made. The aide added that Davis considered Robbins to be “a fantastic civil servant”.

Thank you.

Thanks Red

Thank you

Loyal name changer signing in. Thank you red .

Thank you RTB. Think this week will prove the cliché that a week is a long time in politics.

Good stuff, Red.

Amber Rudd is one of the less repulsive Tory cabinet members (I realise that's not saying much), but she has blatantly misled the House (and betrayed her own civil servants, let alone many thousands of long-standing, hard-working immigrants) and must go. Though of course it's all the PM's fault really.

Following

Placemarking

Thanks for the new thread RTB!

AAAAANNNNDDDDD.....

Rudd's gone

It's always the lying that gets them. You can say the truth however awful but lie and your toast!

Amber Rudd has resigned! On the basis of her lack of awareness of yet more targets that she should have been aware of

So, they succeeded in outing Rudd, but I still feel she was sacrificed to save May.

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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43944988?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

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Now, back to the post I was in the middle of writing I did comment during Yvette's "dog at a bone" excoriation of Amber Rudd at the Home Affairs Select Committee that AR was trying to deflect questions about "numbers" relating to the targets for removals onto "percentages" - with an apparent unawareness that was at best naive and at worst incompetent that percentages are a function of numbers , real, quantifiable numbers

That would tie in with the letter that the Observer uncovered today, which she must have been recalling/aware of even then, which talked in percentages rather than numbers.

Place mat king (again) 🎣🐟👑

Although it was probably right for her to go, I'm kind of dreading who might replace her.
Or is this the beginning of the end?
Wonder if it'll affect voting this week.