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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:04

Plus Brokenshire did such a good job in NI....

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:05

Tim Shipman @ shippersunbound
Ministers increasingly of the view that only one person ticks all May’s boxes: woman, remainer, loyal, doesn’t leak, would bore journalists, agrees on immigration - Karen Bradley

Definitely not Bradley then.

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:08

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak

  1. So while waiting for delayed flight... here is a thread of the nonsensical guessing game about who gets the keys to Marsham street
  2. Only a handful of Cabinet ministers really share May's particular view on immigration - Lewis, Bradley, and probably Williamson - they were all once upon a time Remainers, but it would be big step up for any of them to a dept that's as easy to manage as an angry snake
  3. Brexit balance still matters - Remain rebels worried the strongest supporter of soft Brexit has gone - so to put a Brexiteer into that job, which has a place on the Brexit cttee - would rile some on the backbenches
  4. Sajid Javid's name keeps coming up - made his anger at Windrush clear in interview yday, he would be the first BAME Home Sec - he was officially also a Remainer but with less gusto - not necessarily seen as a big details person which Home Office (after the last week) requires
  5. Hunt also been mentioned - he certainly is a details person, has charts of individual hospital performance on his own office wall - whether is dept has been so good at meeting those targets, well, that's a different question - but also dug in on NHS reform not sure he'd move
  6. Gove would make waves - but not sure May really trusts him enough yet to move him onto what was her turf despite his shall we say, eagerness, to display public loyalty these days, while promising to save puppies
  7. Could Number 10 persuade Hague to come into Cabinet from the Lords? Obvs was a Remainer and a Tory unifier these days - seems pretty unlikely
  8. If May wants to drive Brexiteers round the twist she could bring Morgan, or Soubry back to govt - that would certainly be a story, but would have them choking on their cornflakes
  9. This might be the occasion for Brokenshire to return in some way
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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:09
  1. Final point I promise - May will want to avoid a reshuffle that might provoke any further drama - remember there are elections in three days! Some Tories despondent this morning, 'all of this is symptomatic of much bigger problem for the party - going nowhere, no mission'
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Peregrina · 30/04/2018 09:12

I was thinking similar to your point 10 Red. Despite being the biggest party in the Commons, May has a dearth of talent at her disposal.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 09:15

May will want to avoid a reshuffle that might provoke any further drama

But she is generally criticised for being weak. How about a shocking curved ball like Rees Mogg! I'm joking I think.

Or ,seriously, Gove. After all he seems to get given hot potatoes. He has suffocated the GCSE system with very little protest.

A sort of high risk, sink or swim decision.

Peregrina · 30/04/2018 09:17

I thought of Rees-Mogg too. It might be a good way to take the wind out of his sails.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:21

Not my point. (sorry no italics) Laura Kuennsberg's.

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:23

Ladbrokes.

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:26

Tom @tomburke_
Amber Rudd has resigned on 29 April, which is shortly before May

Not sure whether to laugh or cry at that one!

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BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 09:27

Rudd is the 4th cabinet minister to resign in 11 months Hmm
Strong and Stable, my arse, indeed

Matthew Parris:

"I'm asking you to consider that our ghastly British government - that lurching, panicking, sightless, deaf, incoherent, blundering thing -

is the product not always of the personal failure of a politician we could name and throw rotten tomatoes at,

but of the inherent impossibility of exercising notional control over a complicated modern state,
while at the same time keeping one finger firmly on the fluttering pulse of popular 'feeling', whatever that is."

Even so, this seems the most unstable, ignorant & incompetent govt since say the 18th century

Or is it partly that they are having to handle the most complex & technical problem ever facing the UK - Brexit - on top of the usual work of govt ?

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 09:31

Irish Westministers - feel free to correct me - but I thought Brokenshire was particularly incompetent as NI Sec,
with little knowledge of, or sensitivity towards, the Nationalist community.

He seemed to blunder around like he was in Home Counties England
i.e. typical May minister

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 09:32

Red! Amber Rudd has resigned on 29 April, which is shortly before May

SmileGrin

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 09:33

Westministenders - autocorrect wants to abolish us

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 09:34

It's odd how we are a paleish reflection of the States.

Interference from sinister money in elections. High turnover of ministers.Xenophobic influences. Protectionist policies.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/04/2018 09:35

Unfortunately wrt May, it really is a case of the Tory's fav motto, especially probably JRM's.

"Keep tight hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse"

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:36

Autocorrect wants to abolish us

Is that the Russians or the Zionists who are behind this scandal? Or can we find some other group to blame for all ills. Like I dunno, The Met Office messing with the weather, so this affects the internet.

(Must have our very own conspiracy scandal to be politically relevant these days).

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:39

Also, Rudd was also the Women and Equalities Minister in addition to the Home Office secretary.

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 09:41

Around me, local election posters seem to have been pushed down. I'm wondering if the Rudd fuss will mean entrenched cynicism against politics generally will be running even higher and people won't bother voting?

Locals always get lower turn out anyway.

Goes off to check weather forecast for Thursday...

Peregrina · 30/04/2018 09:44

Met Office messing with the weather? Seriously, one person in Exeter told me that the weather hadn't been as good since the Met Office moved there!

Having said that - the weather can have an effect. There was severe flooding in London on the day of the referendum. How many people didn't vote as a result? Either directly because their homes were flooded or because of other effects like transport delays stopping them getting to the polls in time? Now it might be assumed that this voted Remain and Leave equally but I suspect that it was more Remain votes which weren't cast.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:44

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Sounds like announcement might come very soon

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:46

Chris Curtis @chris__curtis
As of the middle of last week just 3% of the public thought Amber Rudd was mainly responsible for the Windrush scandal - compared to 22% who selected the Prime Minister.

Interesting political point.

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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CardinalSin · 30/04/2018 09:48

Why does YouGov never ask me these kinds of questions? Is it because they know they won't like the answers?

I'm constantly asked about television that I barely watch!

TheElementsSong · 30/04/2018 09:55

Why does YouGov never ask me these kinds of questions? Is it because they know they won't like the answers?
I'm constantly asked about television that I barely watch!

Me too! You would think they'd find more dedicated TV watchers!

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 09:56

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
In other news I’m at a presser with Michel Barnier in Dundalk near the NI border —- where the Irish government is upping pressure to get key decisions by June council. The UK gvts approach to the talks “needs to change in some way”, says Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
“There will be no withdrawal treaty if there is no (legally binding) backstop”, says deputy PM Simon Coveney

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