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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
DGRossetti · 30/04/2018 09:57

I wonder if taken as a whole the entire Windrush affair - from the horror stories of British Citizens treatment, to the slow striptease of Home Office institutionalised racist incompetence - has actually been a slow poison to neutralise the swivel-eyed Brexiteers influence ?

Or, to put it another way, will JRM et als brand of Brexit be quite as popular in the Tory party after Rudds departure ?

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 10:00

According to this the public stance on immigration hasn't changed much.

Also interesting that political scandals have less effect than you think. "Party supporters are normally willing to give the party they support the benefit of the doubt and place blame elsewhere."

yougov.co.uk/news/2018/04/27/where-public-stands-immigration/

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:04

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/29/amber-rud-theresa-may-crisis-windrush?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true
With Rudd now gone, Theresa May faces a new crisis
The Windrush scandal has claimed its first scalp. But the prime minister is in a desperately weak position and the focus will turn to her own role

and this is something which is wider in society but no less disturbing and is a consequence of the current political climate

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/30/free-press-uk-journalist-police-extremist-legal-action
A free press? I’m a UK journalist, but the police labelled me an extremist
I was named on a secret police list and couldn’t do my job. Now I’m taking legal action

Last week the Reporters without Borders Press Freedom index dropped the UK to 40th. Norway is 1st with a score of 7.63. The UK has a score of 23.25.
rsf.org/en/ranking
That puts us behind Jamaica, Uruguay, Surinam, Ghana, Namibia, Chile and Trinidad and Tobago.
(The US is 45th).

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:06

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
Hearing from a source that Brokenshire could be to housing, Javid to Home..... not confirmed

Twitter pretty much saying its between the two now and that Rudd's replacement is at no10...

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 10:08

We were saying the other day ( at school) that children's fads last a much shorter time now. Rubik's cube lasted for years. Now fidget spinners, slime, squishy stress ball things are in vogue for about two weeks.

Is politics the same? Joining the United States and France in taking action against Syria over chemical weapons was only two weeks ago and seems to be forgotten.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:10

In a word lonely, yes.

Hence "a week is a long time in politics".

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:15

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Late swing back to Sajid. Ususally reliable Whitehall source: "they're taking the signs down in DCLG."

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 10:15

Perhaps that's why lies (like Pfeffel's Darius Guppy debacle or Fox's Atlantic Bridge/Werrity role) do not matter either, if they were more than a political week ago.

TomRavenscroft · 30/04/2018 10:16

Thanks Red.

I think ultimately she might be grateful that she can now enjoy the naughty corner with Anna Soubry et al... potential headache for May though, increasing the number of potential rebels

I think so too. Far from 'weakening' the presence of the Remain cause in government, she will cause trouble. Anna Soubry's tweeted a somewhat fulsome message in praise and support of her, which I hope and trust means she's already been on the blower to her to invite her over for a fag behind the bike sheds.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:18

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
New Home Sec is Javid

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:18

UK Prime Minister @10DowningStreet
Sajid Javid MP @SajidJavid becomes Secretary of State for the @UKHomeOffice

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/04/2018 10:19
RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:24

Javid is not a May ally.

He is of Pakistani descent. It really works for PR in terms of Windrush ahead of the local elections. He is also now in charge of counter-terrorism too.

There will be people exploding at the prospect in the same way that they explode at Sadiq Khan.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/04/2018 10:25

true. It does add a new fascinating dimension to all of this.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 10:25

Sigh

Will the press dig around to see if his Dad's arrival from Pakistan in 1961 with just £1 in his pocket was properly documented.

Oh sorry -am I behind the times? The press don't do their racist digging thing anymore right?

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:25

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Well well

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:26

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Break: new Housing Secretary is James Brokenshire.

He has to do questions to the Commons at 2.30pm

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:29

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Quite a surprising decision. Reveals a very nervous PM has prioritised sorting out Windrush debacle over longterm problems of Brexit and immigration, where Sajid Javid is no ally.

Surprising? Really? Honestly?

No. It was not. At all.

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DGRossetti · 30/04/2018 10:29

Is this the (terrifying) rise of Bromsgrove Man ?

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:30

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Penny Mordaunt takes Rudd's Women and Equalities brief. Brokenshire back, this time at Housing Secretary. Looks like PM had time to plan it a bit more than usual.

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IrenetheQuaint · 30/04/2018 10:34

Javid used to be a typical right-wing Tory with zero respect for the public sector or the disadvantaged sector of the population, but he did seem generally appalled by Grenfell (admittedly not hard) and seems to have shifted politically since. Whether genuinely or not, who can say.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 10:42

Javid used to be a typical right-wing Tory with zero respect for the public sector or the disadvantaged sector of the population

I know very little about Javid but I do think that (making a sweeping generalisation) people who have had a harder path and made it to the top tend to be less compassionate to others.Thinking of the woman at my first job who was a lone female voice on the management board in the 1980's.She was so unsympathetic to maternity leave, part-time working etc. A sort of " I had it tough- so what's your problem attitude."

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 10:48

Adam Wagner @AdamWagner1
Home Secretary and London Mayor both sons of immigrant bus drivers. UK is a great country for immigrants. Or a terrible one. Can’t decide

The two people in charge of security for Trump's visit.

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PawprintsOnMyHeart · 30/04/2018 10:48

I posted this on the other thread, but wanted to ask my question here - I don't know much at all about Javid, but this seems like a cynical PR appointment to me - he's the son of a pakistani migrant, who has been vocal about the Windrush scandal - so it looks great for TM to appoint him as Home Sec to sort it out...

but does he have the experience to be Home Sec ?

(I don't think Amber Rudd did either to be honest, does anyone?)

Motheroffourdragons · 30/04/2018 10:52

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