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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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DGRossetti · 11/05/2018 17:14

Meanwhile, sneaking under the radar, the spearhead to get us all to pay (again) for NHS services

services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/nationalhealthservicecofundingandcopayment.html

A Bill to make provision for co-funding and for the extension of co-payment for NHS services in England; and for connected purposes.

Doesn't sound so bad, does it ?

mrsreynolds · 11/05/2018 17:32

...was only a matter of time...

DGRossetti · 11/05/2018 17:35

.

Westministenders: Amber Alert
prettybird · 11/05/2018 17:46

The question about identity reminds me of when I was doing my year in France and I would be corrected by my French friends for saying "en Europe" when describing eg for coming back from the UK or differentiating something that was different in the UK compared to what I should have said, which was "sur le continent" . They would quite rightly remind me that Ecosse/Grande Bretagne/Royaume Uni was already. In. Europe.

I said earlier that ethnically I am Commonwealth. That's not actually true Shock: I am Commonwealth by birth (and only not affected by the current Windrush/Commonwealth scandal because we were middle class and travelled regularly, so naturalised quickly Hmm). I am European ethnically (and that's usually how I will answer the ethnicity question in the Census) with German, Swedish, Danish, English, French and Irish but no Scottish in my heritage. Smile

I am not a "citizen of nowhere": I am a proud European and a proud Scot (who embraces being European Wink)

BigChocFrenzy · 11/05/2018 19:45

Book: Brexit & Ireland by Tony Connolly (RTE)

Anyone identifying as Irish who has high BP should NOT read this post !

https://books.google.de/books?id=lAbhDgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=de#v=onepage&q&f=false

Connolly (a very respected Irish journalist) has 2 sources for this nationalistic gem from May, when she was talking to Tusk last November

He kept asking her how she was going to resolve the NI border issue and she kept waffling.
Eventually she replied:

“One country cannot hold up progress“

“The UK“ she said “was a much bigger and more important country than Ireland“

Westministenders: Amber Alert
woman11017 · 11/05/2018 19:52

“The UK“ she said “was a much bigger and more important country than Ireland“
she really is a piece of work.

Quiz on now for Eurovision Song Contest lovers. In a good cause. Smile
twitter.com/FinalSayForAll/status/995007470144819200

BigChocFrenzy · 11/05/2018 19:54

So May thinks that the Uk & EU should sacrifice Ireland, because it's small & can be bullied Angry

all so that she can have the kind of Brexit she wants,
i.e. one that neither causes a Tory split, nor causes sufficient obvious damage to harm Tory electoral prospects

She forgets that over half of the E27 countries are small and would sympathise with the RoI
Also, that every country - including the RoI - can veto any trade deal with a 3rd country, which the UK will be.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/05/2018 20:05

Brexiters are adopting an indiscriminate scorched earth policy against all opposition

They have no sense of irony and appear to have neither memory of recent events or respect for British institutions
Very strange patriots Hmm

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/05/tory-mps-and-daily-mail-have-no-right-complain-about-house-lords

The great irony of Brexit is how its advocates have turned on British institutions one by one: the judiciary, the civil service, the free press, the BBC and, now, the House of Lords.

Rather awkwardly, then, Rees-Mogg and Jenkin were among the 28 Brexiteer Tories who voted against Lords reform in 2012.
Jenkin denounced the government’s plan to replace the “current effective, proven and appointed House with more elected politicians”.

In 2012, the Mail itself branded Lords reform “irrelevant and dangerous”, and the paper frequently heralded the defeats endured by Labour on issues such as fox hunting and Section 28.
“The truth is this prime minister [Tony Blair] hates the robustly independent Lords which has proved a more effective check on an over-mighty executive than the Commons,”
it declared in an editorial on 19 September 2003.

Icantreachthepretzels · 11/05/2018 21:09

Has this been posted?
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords
Marina Hyde is always good value.

ElenaGreco123 · 11/05/2018 22:28

I agree Icantreachthepretzels. You have got to love Marina.

At some level, it feels apt that Brexit has already descended into a pub car-park fight about who’s more drunk, given that heavy drinking is the only discipline in which we would probably win the world cup every time.

Indeed, the customs endgame is starting to feel like a warm night in a European square, with England two disastrous matches into a tournament. Rees-Mogg is already in a plastic tommy hat and eyeing the cafeteria furniture – the analytic equivalent of the fan who thinks the reason the side aren’t doing well is because they aren’t playing with enough “passion”. They don’t want it enough, was basically his verdict this week on the UK’s negotiators.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 11/05/2018 23:34

Did anyone catch the Recession thread earlier. I only read a few pages, but there was already talk of recession being caused by people talking it into happening.

I've been talking myself into winning the lottery for years, its not happened yet Hmm

Clearly I'm not talking slowly and loudly enough.

mathanxiety · 12/05/2018 05:02

Marina Hyde in top form there.... Grin

I regard myself as Irish, but that assumes European-ness.
I can still remember the school terms spent at age 8 in about 1972-3 discussing the theme of how Ireland is part of Europe and always was, learning about the New Money - how rational it was and what a huge improvement it was over pounds, shillings and pence (about which I knew nothing). The Irish schoolgirls in my convent school class were the first generation, we were told, for whom the whole world would be our oyster, and not just Ireland and the US and mission territory (Africa, South and Central America) which had previously been the unofficial Irish empire.

The UK was strangely enough never mentioned. I think it was considered shameful, deep down, that so many Irish people emigrated to Britain throughout the 20th century and found it a congenial place to settle and have a family. (There was still a bit of cognitive dissonance about independence in Ireland in the late 60s and early 70s. Massive change was afoot but old narratives took a while to yield the field.)

Joining the EEC was portrayed as a rejoining of a cultural family from which Ireland had been separated by British influence. Old links with Spain and France and the University of Louvain were celebrated. The Wild Geese became relevant again. It became possible to think of emigration to the UK partly as an expression of European-ness when the UK joined the EEC too. This thought became much more possible when the Irish moving to the UK tended to have university degrees and to head east to white collar work.

Mistigri · 12/05/2018 06:37

Did anyone catch the Recession thread earlier. I only read a few pages, but there was already talk of recession being caused by people talking it into happening.

There's an element of truth in that though. Economic growth is the result of the cumulative effect of millions of individual decisions. If everyone decides to defer purchases because they are worried about the security of their income, then demand will fall and economic activity will contract.

This is of course just another reason why it is a bloody stupid idea to forge ahead with a disruptive political process without a plan and without attempting to build a national consensus.

mathanxiety · 12/05/2018 07:31

That is a consensus based on millions of individual observations of real life conditions, though. It's not anti-Brexit or pro-Brexit feelings influencing events.

DGRossetti · 12/05/2018 07:41

Is it just me, or is there a swelling backlash against the systemic racism that's been allowed to fester. Not a result of Brexit (since it predates it) but which Brexit was trying to normalise ?

A slew of stories on the BBC this morning: asylum seekers denied study, NHS charges ripping families apart, UKs immigration policy criticised by the UN.

woman11017 · 12/05/2018 09:13

@JolyonMaugham
How an obscure rule about court costs could enable the plutocrats to spend their way to victory. Again. /THREAD

There is a rule that if you fight a case and lose you have to pay the other side’s costs. This is a problem in public interest litigation where cases, crowdfunded by the people, are brought against powerful, wealthy organisations. /1

You can do deals with your own solicitors and lawyers where they act for free or for very low rates. You can manage your own costs. /2

But you can never be sure whether you will win a case. And the rules means that if you lose you can have a costs liability which would put you out of business or bankrupt you. /3

The @GoodLawProject faces these difficulties day in and day out. One of the ways in which I manage those risks is by giving a personal indemnity to other claimants. /4

Those other claimants are usually MPs but could also be charities or affected individuals. Giving a ‘personal indemnity’ means that if the case loses I personally will meet the other side's excess costs. /5

I have some ability to do that. Although I now only spend about a quarter of my life doing paid work I am still paid very well by normal standards. /6

But some defendants spend huge amounts of money and issue stark threats that you will be the one to pick up the tab if the case loses. /7

Uber, for example, which I am personally suing to expose what I believe is tax avoidance of around £1bn and counting could easily spend £1m before any appeals. Why would it not? And I have no financial interest in the case. /8

Uber has issued several threats that if I lose I will pick up those costs. And however, ‘right’ you think you are, it is a risk that is difficult to contemplate. With Uber I believe I have found a ‘work round’. /9

However, the issue is coming to a head with the case the @GoodLawProject’s case against the Electoral Commission in respect of Vote Leave’s spending. /10

Vote Leave is spending furiously . Several months ago, for far less output than the @GoodLawProject’s legal team, it had run up bills of £84,000 (goodlawproject.org/judicial-review-electoral-commission-papers/ …). /11

By comparison, @GoodLawProject’s costs, for far more output, at the same point in time were less than half of that. And we have only raised < £55,000 for all of ours costs. This is considerably less than what we will pay to our legal team. /12

One of the ways in which you can manage your exposure to the other side’s costs is by asking the Court to ‘cap’ them – to limit your liability. And we have asked the Court to do this. But we do not know what it will say. /13

On Monday I will tell the Court that if it does not cap our costs we will abandon the litigation. That litigation, remember, has already succeeded in causing the Electoral Commission to reopen its investigation into Vote Leave. /14

But we also say – an argument the Court has already said has real merit – that there is no need to investigate because on the facts already known it is clear that Vote Leave broke the law. /15

The case is incredibly important for two reasons. First, because Vote Leave was the official campaigner in the Referendum and if it broke the rules MPs set down MPs must know (see this thread twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/994875291691573248 …). /16

The following things are plain:

(1) Parliament set out rules for the fair conduct of the Referendum
Show this thread

Second, because the same or similar rules will govern future election and referendum spending. And we need to know whether – as @SteveBakerHW claimed in an email – Vote Leave found a loophole in those rules. /17

But the case will be dropped if the Court does not grant a costs cap because, although I am wealthy by normal standards, I am a (part time) working barrister and I cannot fund the legal bills of plutocrats. /18

What a supreme irony it would be if a case brought to challenge overspending by plutocrats in our democracy was brought to a halt by huge spending by plutocrats in our courts. /19

Anyway. I am tweeting this for two reasons. First, because you, the funders of this case, and the people for whom democracy should work, should know what’s happening. /20

And, second, because if there’s someone out there who wants to see our democracy protected and has greater financial means than I do, I need to know by tomorrow. /21

I have spent nine months working on this incredibly important case. I have not earned one penny - and that's fine. But to contemplate having to throw the towel in because the plutocrats can outspend the people? That leaves me very fearful for democracy. /ENDS

twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/995210585649434625

Above all else, the collapse of our legal system: impending lawyers' strike; rogue HO and gov departments; defendants with no legal representation; this potential collapse of Maugham's challenge, is the most dangerous threat to our democracy.

frankiestein401 · 12/05/2018 09:28

recession being caused by people talking it into happening
the cameron government did exactly this, post crash q on q growth had been accelerating upto q2 2010, the cameron govt came in and kept referring to the mess we were in to justify austerity and growth stalled, yet none of the measures they talked about came into effect until mid 2011 and we still haven't got to the level cameron inherited.

cf ons q on q growth figures

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pgdp
(q1 2011 was recovery from bad weather q4 2010)
2008 Q4 -2.2
2009 Q1 -1.6
2009 Q2 -0.2
2009 Q3 0.2
2009 Q4 0.3
2010 Q1 0.5
2010 Q2 0.9
2010 Q3 0.5
2010 Q4 0.1
2011 Q1 0.6
2011 Q2 0.1
2011 Q3 0.4
2011 Q4 0.2
2012 Q1 0.6
2012 Q2 -0.1
2012 Q3 1.2
2012 Q4 -0.1
2013 Q1 0.6

BigChocFrenzy · 12/05/2018 09:38

Could a kind Westministender link to the recession thread, please < hopeful >

BigChocFrenzy · 12/05/2018 09:42

Brexit customs standoff could go on for another week

No hurry to decide which previously rejected proposal you want; it's not like A50 has a deadline …
< wakey, wakey, No 10 - SHOUT >

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/brexit-customs-standoff-could-go-on-for-another-week-sources

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 12/05/2018 10:27

UK has seen 'Brexit-related' growth in racism, says UN representative

UN special rapporteur on racism says ‘extreme views’ have gained ground in Britain since vote

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/uk-has-seen-brexit-related-growth-in-racism-says-un-representative

BigChocFrenzy · 12/05/2018 11:21

Thanks, woman SmileThanks

Icantreachthepretzels · 12/05/2018 11:41

I've just seen something that made me laugh and is now making me hopeful and delighted in a way I haven;t been for a long time. The Daily Express - The Daily Express have just run a headline EFTAs 'British values' suit UK much more than ECJ.
And whilst I am not going to be clicking on their link -the first line seems to be 'Brexit Britain should join the EFTA court which suits British values a lot more than the French and German influenced ECJ.'

The Daily Express seems to be softening readers up for a soft brexit. They have been spewing pro brexit vitriol everyday since forever - they always have by far and away the most brexit stories of any news outlet and today there is only 2. One is about TMs problems with the custom unions, and one is suggesting we voluntarily enter another European institution - just not an EU one.

The tide is truly turning.

Just one last push and we can stop all this!

Icantreachthepretzels · 12/05/2018 11:47

And Lord Kinnock has called for Jezza to change his brexit stance.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44092538

LadyTy · 12/05/2018 13:01

DGRossetti, no not just you. I noticed that while reading the headlines this morning too. There does seem to be at least the start of a shift in attitudes, or at least in reporting. Not before time.

Swipe left for the next trending thread