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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Cherrypi · 29/04/2018 22:33

Please not Gove.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/04/2018 22:39

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/04/2018 22:42

Thanks, red Flowers

So with Rudd, yet another one has bitten the dust !

I wonder if Javid will replace her - he is one of the few ministers with brains & energy, also useful business experience with Deutsche Bank.
His speech to the Jewish Students Union a while ago showed a very nice line in humour and self-deprecation, not the typical stuffed shirt

However, he said during the ref campaign that "his heart was with Brexit" and he only supported Remain out of concern for the economic consequences, also loyalty to Cameron.
May would probably want to maintain the Leaver / Remainer balance in Cabinet - and I'm not sure what he counts as !

BUT whoever it is, please not Gove Shock I dread to think what he would do as Home Sec

prettybird · 29/04/2018 22:50

I think ultimately she might be grateful that she can now enjoy the naughty corner with Anna Soubry et al Wink potential headache for May though, increasing the number of potential rebels Grin Shame WinkGrin

Might mean that she might even be able to retain her seat at the next general election whenever that might be Wink, given that she currently has such a tiny majority Shock

Motheroffourdragons · 29/04/2018 23:05

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Peregrina · 29/04/2018 23:34

I still feel she was sacrificed to save May.
Absolutely agree.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 06:30

Well the first paragraphs of Red's opening post came true before the bell struck 12.

Star for Red

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 06:54

Will there be a backlash from the Daily Vile and those who thought Leave meant get people to Leave. Surely Amber's department was trying to deliver and there was (horrid) collateral damage on the way?

What I don't get is that Rudd allegedly had a mandate to kick forrinesr out. The people wanted to get rid of ?? EU citizens ? any possible illegal arrivals?? and any one who may look like a potential terrorist??

So why didn't the gov get behind Rudd saying " She's only trying to do what the people wanted" ? They could say 'Yes of course we have targets, that's what the people wanted'. Why lie ( as she did) to cover up targets?

Why not counter with 'look here are some twenty something men who arrived in the back of a lorry, we have kicked them out too?'

There could still be apologies and compensation for the fact that some nice elderly Windrush British people have been collateral damage.

So whilst Amber has a veneer of substance she did lie. I also really didn't like the way she sneakily passed a note to the chair to shut down a speaker last year. Remember an independent candidate was criticising arms sales to Saudi Arabia during election hustings. I appreciate he was a bit impassioned.

The way both May and Trump scampered off to Saudi after deals (presumably involving arms) seems to be the love that must not be mentioned. Amber should not have shut down any candidate raising this. She should have responded on the merits of her position.

mathanxiety · 30/04/2018 06:55

Amber Rudd no doubt hurting after that bus rolled over her, cursing whoever it was who threw her under it.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/04/2018 07:04

So the question is, does this now make May more vulnerable?

lalalonglegs · 30/04/2018 07:35

.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 07:37

Newspaper treatment interesting...

forced to quit

May in crisis

www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-43944692

mrsreynolds · 30/04/2018 07:44

Another one bites the dust....

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 30/04/2018 07:54

I've been feeling a bit sorry for Rudd as she's clearly TMs fall guy but not that sorry as she was clearly bought into it. This morning I also realised that it seems fine the the likes of dd, fox and especially Johnson can lie - in Johnson's case at the expense of a British citizen's freedom - but its not enough for them to go. If Rudd had been male I'm guessing she'd have been more protected.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 07:56

If you think Rudd going was to save May, I think you are wrong. Rudd went because of May's weakness and May could no longer save her. Remember the last memo to May that was leaked talked about targets. May therefore has no way to deny their existence either. It really does expose May more than ever. We know that May was up to her neck in this whilst at the Home Office and she chose Rudd to take over there as a safe pair of hands to carry on and protect her legacy there to achieve the target of tens of thousands. To show that May was actually a success at the Home Office.

May is now left in a situation where her time at the Home Office looks like a total car crash and the public are supposed to trust her on Brexit and the fate of the 3 million. I'd argue that as more and more comes out that makes her position more and more untenable.

It really doesn't help the way Rudd was ousted. Rudd was put in a difficult position from the word go. The infamous speech she gave in Oct 2016 was out of character and looked liked she was following orders from above and thats how she has looked all along. Trying to please her boss and take the blame for her boss whilst protecting her boss and never really being allowed to run the department herself. Just run it how May would have. Which meant she was never really in control. Arguably she sacrificed her career and political ambition in doing so.

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lonelyplanetmum · 30/04/2018 07:58

And Fox -don't forget his litany of lies over his Verity Veritas Werrity friend.

For blokes lying is a prerequisite for most cabinet positions.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 08:05

Not only that but now she's been hung out to dry despite of everything, you have to wonder how much loyalty she has left. Her political survival in future now rests on her demonstrating herself to her highly remain constituency. May will undoubtedly be disliked there.

If she wants to stay in politics she really has very little option but to go to the naughty corner and be very vocal and opinionated.

She wil have to make the decision quickly. The week of local elections is not ideal in many respects. In others its perfect: if she goes full on Remain, she might actually help May in London.

What happens to the Cabinet now is intriguing. Upsetting the balance of leavers to remainers, might lead to exodus to the bank benches which would spell disaster for May. And even if replaced by a hard line Brexiteer that could spell disaster for the government and indeed Brexit. A moderate replacement to May who took the soft line on Brexit might save Brexit but wouldn't be acceptable to hard liners. So the government might go.

This is where fear of Corbyn really sets in. Who is most scared of him?

Second half the year is going to be R-O-C-K-Y

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borntobequiet · 30/04/2018 08:16

Perhaps someone who is a Leaver at heart but clearly able to see the car crash Brexit is likely to become might be a more effective spokesperson in Cabinet for the case to Remain than a committed Remainer...IYSWIM.

SergeantPfeffer · 30/04/2018 08:19

Is Amber Rudd’s constituency remain? Pretty certain Hastings voted leave.

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 08:20

Robert Peston @ peston
If @sajidjavid isn’t new home secretary, it would be pretty extraordinary. Though he may fear that as chalices go, it’s pretty toxic

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
Who’ll be new Home Sec? Has to be a Remainer for Cabinet balance, and PM badly needs a competent operator who knows where the bear traps are. Ben Wallace or James Brokenshire most likely. Karen Bradley and David Lidington also possible.

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RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 08:24

I thought it was remain. Just checked. It was indeed 57% leave

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Peregrina · 30/04/2018 08:36

Isn't Brokenshire ill though? Surely he wouldn't want a high profile job at present?

RedToothBrush · 30/04/2018 08:38

Brokenshire is ill. Lidington won't be moved from the Cabinet office. Javid much more likely. There is a lack of names it could be tbh.

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prettybird · 30/04/2018 08:52

Brokenshire is apparently back at work (on the back benches) but I would've thought that the Home Office is too big a remit if he is still recovering.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 30/04/2018 09:01

born I agree, a Eurosceptic but a sensible one would probably be far more effective. However they may also be far too sensible for the likes of the brexshiters in cabinet.