Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimed
The promise by No10 to turn next month’s crunch customs union vote into a vote of confidence in Theresa May is the ultimate display of ERG’s power - the 70 strong Brexit grouping inside the Tory party - over her administration.
No10 gambling Tory remain rebels not as brave
This is the calculation, I would generally take if I were May; the rebels fear a Corbyn government more than anything.
BUT
Colin Talbolt @ colinrtalbolt
It is not a “confidence vote” unless in the terms of the FTPAct - it would have no legal force and certainly would not trigger a General Election or even necessarily force May’s resignation.
She can promise to resign if she looses, but that’s different.
Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
This is correct and worth remembering: it can’t be a technical confidence vote; but can be treated as an issue of confidence
But given this is the case, I would not underestimate the rebels. They fear hard brexit and think it their duty to stop it. Especially since polling currently doesn't look as good for Labour as it has of late. How well/badly the Conservatives do in the local elections before the vote becomes crucial.
Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
^Update: while 8am radio 4 headlines suggested No10 wd make next month’s customs vote a confidence issue, now language is softening. Note
- it can’t be a formal confidence vote because of fixed term Pt act
- remain rebels were promised by @JulianSmithUK it wouldn’t be confidence^
So its not been decided and the rebels are still prepared to stand their ground.
Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Will next month’s customs union vote be a matter of confidence. Senior gvt source now: “People are getting ahead of themselves”. The official line is gvt will not back down on the issue (meaning we’ve gone back in time to the 730am BBC headline, forgetting 8am ever happened)
It depends on who this senior government official is. Clearly not a done deal and its still being argued over.
May could face a leadership challenge if she ignores the ERG. But leaving the customs union is not an option and the rebels know this and the EU know this and May knows this.
The question is whether May will put clinging on to power ahead of reality.
If she does. Cliff Edge.