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Brexit

Westminstenders: Exit 2020 Vision

982 replies

RedToothBrush · 19/03/2018 18:02

Yet it is a great mistake to suppose that the only writers who matter are those whom the educated in their saner moments can take seriously. There exists a subterranean world where pathological fantasies disguised as ideas are churned out by crooks and half-educated fanatics for the benefit of the ignorant and the superstitious. There are times when this underworld emerges from the depths and suddenly fascinates, capturers and dominates multitudes of usually sane and responsible people, who thereupon take leave of sanity and responsibility. And it occasionally happens that this underworld becomes a political power and changes the course of history.
Norm Cohn ‘Warrant for Genocide’ 1970

(As referenced by Nick Cohen).

We have a deal (or bits of a deal). Bino til Dec 2020. Then the cliff?

Still a long way to go. It sounds better than it could be. But worse than it initially seems.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2018 18:29

_ Too little, too late ? Business have been quietly activating contingency plans_

Rolls-Royce, GlaxoSmithKline, the financial services sector and many lesser names have all been prepping – so jobs are going, or have gone

and uncertainty remains, because transition may not be approved by the UK (E27 almost certain to vote for this transition) - vote in Parliament maybe not until September ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-20/brexit-deal-too-late-to-stop-some-eu-firms-from-moving-businesss_

The U.K.’s transitional agreement to smooth its departure from the European Union is too late to stop some of Brexit’s fallout

Nearly one in seven EU companies with U.K. suppliers have moved some of their business out of Britain,
according to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

Almost a third of U.K. businesses with suppliers from the bloc have increased prices as a result of Britain’s 2016 vote to leave

While businesses welcomed the news Monday of a preliminary deal on a transitional agreement, some have been activating contingency plans to make sure they’re not caught out by Brexit

Nearly a quarter of U.K. businesses are planning to reduce their workforce to offset Brexit-related costs,
according to the report, based on a survey of more than 2,000 supply-chain managers globally.

“Businesses have little choice but to pass on some of their rising costs to consumers
in order to protect their profit margins and stay in business, as a result of the crippling cost of Brexit”

“Businesses that fail to plan ahead and use this opportunity to reduce costs in their supply chain may not survive.”

More than 1 in 10 EU companies have moved some of their employees out of the U.K. since the referendum
and
22 percent of British businesses are having problems securing contracts with EU suppliers after the March 2019 leaving date,

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2018 18:30

RNorth also very gloomy in a BTL comment on his blog:

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86805

“Meanwhile, the economic lifeblood of the nation slowly drains away ...
Soon there won't be any need for a trade deal. We'll have nothing left to trade”

prettybird · 20/03/2018 18:31

Silos is a current managerial jargon term describing reporting structures/functions that are very vertical, without any cross-fertilisation (sorry Wink)

lonelyplanetmum · 20/03/2018 18:33

*Olivia
*
That letter is very interesting, produced at speed, intelligent, detailed, insightful and experienced.

I've always been in favour of elected representatives over the Lords. However on this- the standards of skill, insight and intelligence are an acute contrast to the other house and I now wish the Lords had more power rather than less.

prettybird · 20/03/2018 18:37

...sorry, posted by accident. So in that tweet, they're suggesting stating that HQ and Jeremy Corbyn's office didn't talk to each other.

If you're wanting to be generous, you could claim that they were blaming the structure rather than either HQ or JC's office, for any differences in message.

If you were being less generous, you might say that they wanted to silence dissent and any voices from the membership that JC/his office/Momentum don't want to listen to Hmm

OliviaD68 · 20/03/2018 18:37

@lonelyplanetmum

I agree. It's a robust piece of work. It will be painful for Davis. I doubt he will understand it.

They have clearly been assisted by good lawyers to which they refer in the letter.

But just knowing what questions should be asked and which should not is of value (as is knowing which lawyers are good and which are not).

Chapeau as some froggies might say.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2018 18:37

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/brexit-bulletin-the-bridge-gets-built

Aviation

The U.K.’s Civil Aviation Authority doesn’t have the capacity to take over the functions of the equivalent European regulator,
and it would take five to 10 years even to begin that process,^ according to a parliamentary committee report.&

The chief executive of the U.K. authority told the panel that ^
“it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option.”^

Any transition from one authority to another would lead to disruptions and risks to the industry

Financial Services
Royal Bank of Scotland Chairman Howard Davies said on Sky News:

“If you suddenly faced a cliff edge, you’d have to move people very quickly into another a city,”

But the issue would be finding apartments — it wouldn’t be building huge facilities.”

Banks are well ahead of other companies when it comes to contingency measures,
and RBS has plans for a subsidiary in Amsterdam.

OliviaD68 · 20/03/2018 18:48

@BigChocFrenzy

How depressing. It's worse than I thought.

mathanxiety · 20/03/2018 18:56

That is the case DGRosetti (wrt chem weapons) - it's a pity to shoot the messenger here, and I'm fair play to Corbyn for the implied reminder about the rule of law.

Good news from Jo Maugham, speaking of which...

mathanxiety · 20/03/2018 18:56

I'm = imo

Hasenstein · 20/03/2018 19:06

Olivia

This link concerns the Russian bank I was talking about in the "Petition: Parliament's vote on the Brexit deal must include an option to remain in the EU" thread last Saturday. You thought that Mogg couldn't be hoist by this particular petard, but it seems he does indeed have something to answer for, if only hypocrisy! SCM has a £60 million stake in Sberbank (which has been subject to sanctions since 2014), but Mogg has called on Teresa May to impose a "freeze on assets". I knew the devious bastard had something to hide, or just not mention.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/20/rees-mogg-criticised-over-firms-russian-bank-investment

OliviaD68 · 20/03/2018 19:12

@Hasenstein

Yes I thought about that the other day and remembered our discussion.

Whether this is illegal depends on the jurisdiction of the funds - I think. It's possible that Singapore or other jurisdictions - not sure where his funds are set up - don't impose such sanctions.

Whether he gets caught in this or not while his funds don't (not sure about this) is a good question.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/03/2018 19:19

Thanks prettybird

Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
EXCLUSIVE: Trump’s election consultants secretly filmed boasting that they helped create the “Defeat Crooked Hilary” brand of attack ads. www.channel4.com/news/exposed-undercover-secrets-of-donald-trump-data-firm-cambridge-analytica … #CambridgeAnalyticaUSA

Disappointingly, they didn't mention brexit at all.

woman11017 · 20/03/2018 19:39

Disappointingly, they didn't mention brexit at all
and still no judges.
I'm pretty disappointed in this again from Channel 4: seems like a bit of theatre, with the party line on brexit on repeat.

woman11017 · 20/03/2018 19:44

This item was more shocking. What the dickens is the FO up to?

@foreignoffice
The nerve agent came from Sweden,
Ukraine did it to frame Russia,
It was contamination from the UK's own research facility...

Instead of providing an explanation for the Salisbury incident, Russia has launched a campaign of disinformation

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2018 19:52

Rees-Mogg criticised over firm's Russian bank investment

Russian dirty money sloshing everywhere Hmm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/20/rees-mogg-criticised-over-firms-russian-bank-investment

MP who sought tough sanctions is partner in firm…
his fund management firm profits from a £60m investment in a Russian bank that has been the target of European Union sanctions since 2014.
< no wonder he wants to leave the EU Hmm >

Rees-Mogg told May in the Commons last week that “tyrants need to be stood up to” and added:
“I encourage her to impose a freeze on assets, so that people do not have the opportunity of taking them out of the country in the short term.”

< maybe start by freezing business dealings of ERG members ? >

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/03/2018 20:48

Sberbank:

www.msnbc.com/transcripts/rachel-maddow-show/2017-08-28

The next one we learned about was I think the biggest Russian bank of all, a bank called Sberbank, which announced in March that they have hired new counsel to represent them in a big complicated civil case that was filed in the federal court of New York in which Sberbank was accused basically of rigging the granite mining industry in Russia.

Why is that a federal civil case in New York? Its a long story, but in March, Sberbank in the middle of this case, they kind of surprised everybody. They made a lot of eyebrows arch in the legal news when they announced that they had chosen their new counsel for that long complicated and presumably very expensive case and they said their new counsel was going to be Donald Trumps personal lawyer, Marc Kazowitz, right?

Marc Kasowitz supposed to be heading up President Trumps legal representation on the Russia investigation. If youre the lead lawyer coordinating legal defense for the president of the United States, who is facing a major counterintelligence and criminal investigation from the FBI while he is serving as president, you are in charge of that.

You think he`d be too busy to take on other clients, right? But, you know, looking at it from another angle, if there were Russian interests who are particularly concerned to know what was going on in the Trump-Russia investigation.

It may be handy to have conversations undercover of attorney-client
privilege with the lead lawyer for the president on the Trump-Russia
investigations so who knows? Maybe that was just a coincidence too.

Whats that big Russian bank doing with the presidents Russia lawyer? So, maybe the Alfa Bank thing was just a coincidence. Maybe the VEB-Jared Kushner meeting was a coincidence. Maybe the Sberbank thing, hiring Donald Trump`s Russia lawyer, maybe it was all just a coincidence.

Maybe none of this has anything to do with President Donald Trump and whether or not he has some sort of illicit relationship financial or
otherwise with Russia that explains why Russia attacked our election and tried to rig it on his behalf, right?

Maybe none of those bank connections, Alfa Bank, VEB Bank, Sberbank, maybe none of those have anything to do with the question of whether Trump and his campaign knew about or were involved with the Russian effort to disrupt our election.

I mean, if you want to talk about Donald Trump personally and specifically, honestly until today the only so big and sort of suspicious banking relationship weve known about him at least recently isnt with any Russian bank, it`s with Deutsche Bank, right?

Which as the name implies is not Russian, Deutsche Bank still to this day is the bank that Donald Trump owes hundreds of millions of dollars to. Deutsche Bank is the bank that dealt with Donald Trump in business terms for years when no other major banks would.

Deutsche Bank is the bank that continued to lend President Trump hundreds of millions of dollars for various deals even after he was unable to pay them back on some of his earlier loans.

Even after he went so far as to file lawsuits against Deutsche Bank because he failed to pay them back, which is a certain kind of hubris. There are aspects of the Donald Trump-Deutsche Bank relationship that have always seemed unexplained by the bounds of normal financial business dealings.

Deutsche Bank at least on the surface appears to have been uncommonly generous to him and forgiving of him. Deutsche Bank also, it turns out, gave Jared Kushner several hundred millions of dollars in loans in October of last year, right before the election.

Loans that Jared Kushner personally guaranteed, which made it all the more unusual that he failed to disclose those loans from Deutsche Bank on his financial disclosure statement, hundreds of millions of dollars.

Deutsche Bank has also been plagued over the last year by its legal
liability for a multibillion dollar Russian money laundering scheme that was operated out of Deutsche Bank offices in Moscow, London, and elsewhere.

But you know after today, the Deutsche Bank Russian money laundering case will no longer be seen as the most concerning Deutsche Bank connection for President Trump when it comes to the Trump-Russia investigation.

Because there was Alfa Bank with the server thing, VEB Bank with the Carter Page connection and then the Jared Kushner meeting. Theres Sberbank hiring Trumps Russia lawyer.

Theres all of these Russian banks getting strange new storing roles in American politics. Theres another one, Alfa Bank, VEB Bank, Sberbank. There`s another one called VTB Bank.

It is a very large Russian bank. Its not as big as Sberbank, but its
really big. VTB Bank is sanctioned by the U.S. government because of
Russia invading Crimea.

This bank got sanctioned by the U.S. government as punishment for Crimea because this bank is seen as the Russian government. Its an arm of the Russian government and thats how the U.S. government views them.

In fact, if you go to VTB`s website tonight, click on about VTB and they will tell you in exact mathematical terms how they are controlled by the Russian government.

The Russian government owns and controls 60.9 percent of the VTB bank, the majority shareholder of the VTB Bank is the Russian government, which owns 60.9 percent of the voting shares.

What that means in plain English is that Putin runs VTB. Putin controls the bank and what it does and what it spends on. And today, we learn that up until last year, up until the middle of the presidential campaign VTB Bank was lined up and committed to provide hundreds of millions of dollars in financing to build Trump Tower Moscow.

The Russian government was going to do that deal. Actually, even without the knowledge that the financing for this deal was going to come from the Russian government, its still a heck of a bombshell. This is not some old deal that happened back in the past that people may have forgotten about. This is not something that Trump worked on in the 90s and it fell apart.

This is what he was working on during the campaign after he announced that he was running for president, months into his presidential campaign when he was full on running for president, he was trying do this deal with the Russian government in Moscow.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/03/2018 20:48

Anna Soubry MP
@Anna_Soubry
Now we need to know what role #CambridgeAnalytica had in the #Leave campaign & whether similar illegal and underhand tactics were used to manipulate voters in the #EUReferendum

woman11017 · 20/03/2018 21:00

Trump Tower Moscow.
All this rubbish we've put up with, for a phallic symbol for a sad old man. What are they like.

woman11017 · 20/03/2018 21:03

Stephen Kinnock questioned the validity of the EU Referendum result in light of the developing Cambridge Analytica scandal in HOC today too.

SwedishEdith · 20/03/2018 21:08

Placemarking - losing track of these threads.

RedToothBrush · 20/03/2018 21:08

Esther Webber @ estwebber
Govt defeat: Peers vote 265 to 194 for amendment to allow Euratom withdrawal to be paused if international agreements not reached by exit day

This is the 12th defeat for the government in the Lords this session

Govt defeat: Peers vote 244 to 194 for Labour amendment which would require independent reporting on future arrangements with Euratom

13th defeat for the govt in the Lords this session

OP posts:
Peregrina · 20/03/2018 22:11

Govt defeat: Peers vote 265 to 194 for amendment to allow Euratom withdrawal to be paused if international agreements not reached by exit day

I hope this cannot be overturned by the Commons in subsequent votes. Why it was ever included, apart from the oversight of the ECJ, is a mystery. How many people would have voted Leave if they had known that there was a good chance that cancer treatments could be compromised? Precious few, I would imagine.

borntobequiet · 20/03/2018 22:17

The Information Commissioner is taking a long time to get a warrant to examine CA's data. Why so long? Who needs to be protected? Hint: Brexit is seen by many as a dry run for swinging the US election.

OliviaD68 · 20/03/2018 22:36

All

Are we witnessing the death of Brexshit? So much negativity right now.

Is this a turning point?

Thoughts?