The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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No kicking off on this thread!!!

Bear has kindly set up another (non-pub) thread, so that leaves this one free for the Brexiteers!!!

Good speech by Theresa May today - onwards to Brexit 🍻🇬🇧

We’re special.
That alone is not a reason to give preferential treatment.
And such an attitude will hardly encourage the EU negotiators to budge.

75% of the UK's economy is services.
A significant part is banking
If the UK were to fully lose its passporting rights, Paris, Dusseldorf, Milan and Madrid would all profit MASSIVELY
so they have a strong incentive to screw the UK over

Being the 5th biggest economy in the world ( ok 6th ) is a reason to give us preferential treatment.
We’re rich, they want our money, why would they make things difficult for themselves?
It just doesn't make sense for them to screw us over.

Surferjet as is apparent at times on this thread it can sometimes be hard to infer the sentiment behind the written word. So it may be just me but
'did you mean to be so rude to user?

and
your 'were special' observation
was that a joke?
Just want to be clear on the tone they were written in before responding.

@howabout

"Literal" is a meaningless term in legalise

Indeed. I meant literal to indicate the English translation from Latin.

Being the 6th biggest economy in the world does make us special. That’s something to be very proud of & to celebrate.
I know remainers think the UK is shit & we’ll be nothing without the EU, but that’s absolutely not the case.
They need us more than we need them.

75% of the UK's economy is services
A significant part is banking
If the UK were to fully lose its passporting rights, Paris, Dusseldorf, Milan and Madrid would all profit MASSIVELY
so they have a strong incentive to screw the UK over

Yes they could but, they run the risk of screwing themselves over in the process as you only get one chance to get that right if they take it on. I have posted on passporting before, I personally don’t believe any other EU country at this moment in time have the structure or expertise in place to be able to take this on, its massive and is a huge gamble for the EU. Equivalence is more likely to be the way forward.

But we were, until this turn of events, the 5th largest economy.

I know no remainer who has said the "UK is shit" but we will be 'less than' without EU membership, even Mrs May said that on Friday as one of the 'hard facts'.

Who says, and why, do the EU need us more than we them, apart from you that is?

We’re not some bankrupt Mediterranean country who only export olives.

What a nasty, condescending comment. Proof that Brexit is over inflated nationalism.

We’re special.

Indeed, but not in the way you think.

time with the transition/implementation period where all things remain the same as now, might the UK's competitor financial services centres be getting their ducks in a row to successfully transfer EU banking services from London?

Being the 6th biggest economy in the world does make us special. That’s something to be very proud of & to celebrate.
But it does not magic up trade deals - as the USA and China have found

JWIM - and that is exactly why I am not a fan of a transition period. Two years would be a big ask but is certainly possible for the EU to make progress in this area - there is no doubt that they have their eye on this as the star prize.

They need us more than we need them.

Farage et al. used to say this before the Referendum, but even they have dropped it from their rhetoric since then. Does anyone still seriously believe it?

But the UK's issue is that 2 years is insufficient time to put in place the infrastructure alluded to by Faith in order to be free of the EU bonds that means 'leaving the EU' as was been described by one T May. So not such a strong negotiating position for the UK.

I am reminded of the Steptoe and Son episode where father and son decided to divide the household down to the TV. Only problem was, although they could both see the screen, only one had the knobs - we're talking pre remote control, just showing my age.

surfer Being the 6th biggest economy in the world does make us special. That’s something to be very proud of & to celebrate.

Our economy has particularly thrived since we joined the EU. Shame we didn't think that was something to celebrate, particularly in the face of growing globalisation!

JWIM Two years is not a lot of time and ideally UK would have/need more, but EU will obviously not be sitting on their hands while we disentangle ourselves at this end so yes they could screw us over easily.

Unfortunately, the UKs eggs are all in one basket (something that should never have been allowed to happen but that’s a whole new thread).

Being the 6th biggest economy in the world does make us special. That’s something to be very proud of & to celebrate.

Up until a few months ago, the UK was the the 5th biggest economy and now the UK should celebrate crashing out of the world's top five economies:
money.cnn.com/2017/11/22/news/economy/uk-france-biggest-economies-in-the-world/index.html

Now UK productivity is lagging well behind G7 peers. the question is how far lower can we fall (and celebrate )
www.ft.com/content/4f798c5b-eb97-3680-bd21-df52a72ec83e

The goal of Brexiteers seems to be the celebration of failure.

But the UK's issue is that 2 years is insufficient time to put in place the infrastructure alluded to by Faith in order to be free of the EU bonds that means 'leaving the EU' as was been described by one T May

We haven't got two years. 6 months is probably optimistic at this stage.

If the UK wants an EU-wide approved deal, then that deal has to be available to all EU members about September so that can either ratify it, or dissent.

It's probably worth bearing in mind that one or two of these members may have their own priorities in legislation. Just because it's the UK, and important to the UK doesn't mean anywhere else is going to drop everything for Brexit.

It really has to be countenanced that we might end up with no deal by default. Simply through administrative drag.

Bear in mind the man in the street in the bigger EU states - France, Germany, Spain, Italy - has absolutely no idea what Brexit is all about. So part of that time may be needed for each member state to explain to their citizens what is going on.

Just because the UK never really got the hang of "doing Europe" doesn't mean everyone else is the same.

There may be a transition agreement - to be discussed/agreed March April EU Council but no final agreement for EU wide approval.

I agree the 'end state' may be some way off, so the transition period (assuming it is 'maintain the status quo' with full alignment, paying in including under a new budget post 2020) may end up being extended off in to the future.

Rossetti - Why do you think every state needs to explain Brexit to it's citizens? It's not that they are all going to have to vote our deal in or out. It will be for the governments and their EU representatives to vote for it. Also no one is expecting others to 'drop everything' because of Brexit, There will be parliamentary time given to it in the EU parliament just as there would be here.

Rossetti - Why do you think every state needs to explain Brexit to it's citizens?

Not all governments are like the UK. And the UK government has - on occasion - called for debate on EU measures it has then been asked to vote on as a member state. The restriction on EU expansion being one.

It will be for the governments and their EU representatives to vote for it.
Or against it
hence the need to explain it to members of smaller parliaments who could not give a flying &&&& about the UK and Brexit
( remember Wallonia and the Canadian deal )
If they do not think it is in their interests, they will vote it down

and saying that the UK is special will not help

In reply to surferjet's we are 6th largest economy and therefore special.
Also a risk of getting on her wick even more
Yes we are special to all of us and we claim a special relationship with USA
But to individual EU countries I am not sure
We aren't any of their main trading partner.
Second trading partner to 3
Ireland (15%)
Cyprus (10%)
Poland (6%)

Third largest to 4
Holland (9%)
Sweden (7%)
Germany (7%)
Denmark (6%)
So we may be a major export destination to whole of EU, but to most individual countries not really.
Those figures come from National Insitute of Economic & Social Research report:-
After Brexit, how important would UK trade be to the EU
Sorry to bore you surfer

we claim a special relationship with USA
Which the Donald tipped into a trash can yesterday

Talkin
Not Brexit, but I always thought special relationship was more important to us

Too right.
When I go see family in the US they have not heard of it
Hence my DEEP cynicism when Brexiters say that trade with the US will replace the EU