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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
Peregrina · 12/02/2018 14:46

When the "business elite" (dog-eared, because they're not really that good at business) thought it could buy class.
They're "trade". Always were, and always will be.

Don't forget that this applies to Moggy himself. His father was Editor of The Times. Despite what he would probably like you to think, that he's an old English Catholic descended from a line of people who came over with William the Conqueror and later had family priests hiding out in priest holes during the reign of Elizabeth I, his Catholicism, like most people of the UK comes via Irish Ancestry. In short, he's a fraud.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 15:04

Mogg's pedigree is very underwhelming:

His double-barrelled dad was not impressive as editor of the Times - wrong on lots of things and kept failing to be elected as a Tory MP,
so at least Mogg did better there than daddy.

PM Harold Wilson's riposte when questioned in the HoC about a Times editorial written by Moggy daddy:

” It spoke with all the authority of a twice failed Conservative party candidate” Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 15:06

I hadn't realised at the time that I'd look back so nostalgically to Harold Wilson,
as a PM, as a Labour leader, as someone v nimble-footed on Europe

DGRossetti · 12/02/2018 15:30

Don't forget that this applies to Moggy himself. His father was Editor of The Times.

WHO BREAKS A BUTTERFLY ON A WHEEL

DGRossetti · 12/02/2018 15:31

I hadn't realised at the time that I'd look back so nostalgically to Harold Wilson, as a PM, as a Labour leader, as someone v nimble-footed on Europe

I'm a big fan of Wilson keeping the UK out of Vietnam (whatever his motivations).

Which makes Tony Blair even worse ....

Peregrina · 12/02/2018 15:42

Harold Wilson was known for his craftiness. He did not deliver a Referendum on the EEC until he knew what the answer would be. That pretty much put the issue to bed for the next 15 years, certainly as far as most of us, apart from the Bastards in Major's Government, were concerned.

Motheroffourdragons · 12/02/2018 16:02

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Peregrina · 12/02/2018 16:04

Really none of the party leaders are much cop at the moment.

DGRossetti · 12/02/2018 16:06

Harold Wilson was known for his craftiness.

The deluge of cat photos on the internet drowns serious research Sad.

Somewhere, many years ago, I read a story which involved Wilsons staying out of Vietnam. Wilson had given some instruction to the MoD/FCO about rendering the US "every possible assistance it is possible for the UK to offer". When the aide enquired what that meant, Wilson said everything but actual assistance.

Annoyingly I can't find it to cite. Oh hang on, I forgot, this is a thread about Brexit. Who needs facts ?

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 17:33

BMG Poll Fieldwork 6-9 Feb

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-best-prime-minister-second-favourite-best-prime-minister-exclusive-new-poll-the-a8205521.html

Parties:
Excluding DK and won't vote:
LAB = CON = 40%

Preference for PM:
May 32%
JC 30%

JC’s leadership: net -9%
43% dissatisfied
34 % satisfied

May’s leadership: net -18%
51% dissatisfied
33 % satisfied

Preferred next Tory Leader

  1. Bojo 13 %
  2. Moggy 7% - gaining support from men and votes aged 50+; losing support from women and younger voters
  3. Hammond 5% Davidson 5% - might she be higher if she were an MP, if many of her fans know she isn't ?
  4. Rudd 4%
  5. DD 3%

BUT
Which of the following Conservative politicians would make the best UK Prime Minister”^ should Ms May fall^
None of the above” … 57% ! Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 17:46

As welll as craftiness, i.e. political skill to push consensus to get his way.
Harold Wilson had the backbone to resist massive pressure from the US to send at least a token force to fight in Vietnam,
to bolster propaganda at home and abroad - world and US public opinion was turning against US involvement

President Johnson demanded at least a regiment - he suggested the Black Watch - as a key allyshow the USA was not alone (Australia joined briefly, didn't go well for their troops)
He even threatened that the US would not defend the UK against a USSR invasion - allegedly he said in a rage that he wouldn't care if England were conquered

So, well done Harold Wilson for being both clever and brave wrt Viet Nam
I just wish later Labour and Tory poodles PMs had had such backbone & wisdom - so many Uk service personnel killed & maimed, so much hatred stoked up for the UK

btw, Churchill also refused US requests in the 1950s to send British troops to aid the French who were the original Western forces in VietNam (it was their colony)
Even the arch-imperialist knew better.

woman11017 · 12/02/2018 17:57

None of the above” … 57% !
It's in someone's interests that we are so divided, but not ours. Sad

Wish that a great article like that Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel' could change minds, or even resonate, these days DGRossetti*

“If we are going to make any case a symbol of the conflict between the sound traditional values of Britain and the new hedonism, then we must be sure that the sound traditional values include those of tolerance and equity,” Mr. Rees-Mogg wrote, under the headline “Who Breaks a Butterfly on a Wheel?"

www.nytimes.com/2013/01/05/world/europe/william-rees-mogg-former-editor-of-the-times-of-london-dies-at-84.html

Wish there was more reference to Swift too in these times.

DGRossetti · 12/02/2018 18:23

ISTR Wilsons antipathy towards Vietnam stemmed more from a fear of the NEC at home. He knew if he supported an Imperialist US war, he'd be out before the week.

Or that's what he told Johnson ...

Either way, that's one illegal war we dodged.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 18:26

imo, a mix of domestic political reasons and genuine belief the war was unwise
As an election winner, he was in a pretty strong position wrt the NEC, iirc.

At least, he didn't prioritise US interests over those of the UK or his own party opinion

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 18:27

He used party issues as an excuse to LBJ, to find something more acceptable than "this is a stupid war"

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 19:16

More trade complexity

During transition, the UK and EU can organise WTO waivers, because there are special WTO provisions for trade during transition conditions
(afaik, no other country has ever transitioned to leave a trade bloc though, only to enter !)

Around 50% of all trade between countries in the EEA single market is currently done under MRAs (Mutual Recognition Agreements), not EU regulations.

The EU don't offer this MRA privilege to any 3rd countries, i.e. any country outside the EEA, not even to any MFN (Most Favoured Nation) countries

Therefore, post-transition, if the EU did grant the UK trade access via an MRA,
then under WTO rules they would have to offer the same provision to all other MFN 3rd counties, e.g. Canada, Korea, soon India …

lalalonglegs · 12/02/2018 19:16

For anyone who would like to tell the Labour Party their thoughts on its Brexit policies before the front bench's awayday at the end of the week, Open Britain have set up this email link. Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 20:47

(paywall) Jeremy Corbyn has a new enemy: Mumsnet

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/jeremy-corbyn-has-a-new-enemy-mumsnet/

Which brings me to the most politically pressing thing I’ve learned.
Mumsnet is angry

And here’s something I already knew.
When Mumsnet is angry, someone in politics is in trouble.

Mumsnet is fab and full of serious, interesting people talking about serious, interesting stuff.

For an increasing number of them,
that means gender recognition, self-defined gender and the implications (practical, social, political and philosophical) for women — by which I mean, people who were born female.

And again, purely anecdotally, it seems to me that a lot of those people are seriously unhappy.

They think that the sort of self-declared gender laws that may end up in force in the UK, as they have in other countries,
will do nothing less than render the word ‘woman’ meaningless, with all that that implies for equality and freedom and, well, civilisation as we know it.

To paraphrase some common sentiments:
you can’t become a woman, because womanhood is based on biology, socialisation and experience that only those born to it can know;

if the law dictates that a man can attain womanhood simply by signing a few forms, womanhood becomes empty and women lose any standing in society.

To quote the formidably eloquent Kristina Harrison, accepting that people can define their own gender without external check or scrutiny is
‘to assert that subjective and unverifiable will subordinate objective biological sex as the pre-eminent cultural-legal category.’

So I’m going to stick to the mundane politics of Mumsnet’s epistemological essentialism.

Some important voters are angry, and a lot of them are angry at Labour.

Partly that’s because some of them are Labour people and they feel let down by their own party.

For all the caricature of Corbynistas being twenty-something men angry at their middle-class parents,
much of the Corbyn surge in Labour membership has come from older women,
some of whom have rejoined the party after years away.

Labour women made Corbyn; could they yet unmake him?

Partly it’s because Labour is the party pushing hardest towards self-ID in gender.

Jeremy Corbyn talks like a man who wants rules that allow someone to define their own gender.

That would mean that the party’s all-women shortlists (AWS) would be open to someone who was born male, retained male physiology and had undertaken no action to change that physiology, and was legally recognised as male.

Such a person would be eligible for an AWS purely because that person declared themself to a be a woman.

This, for now, is the hottest political flashpoint in the gender debate.

And if you read Mumsnet, it could be the spark that ignites a full-blown political firestorm, where women abandon Labour in droves.

Mumsnetters are girding for war and have armed themselves with a hashtag:
#labourlosingwomen

a banner that also covers concerns about the Corbyn leadership’s somewhat macho attitude to the treatment of Labour women who don’t worship St Jeremy and the way allegations of sexual wrongdoing by some Corbyn allies have been handled.

Does this matter?

Isn’t this just some online grumbling in an angry echo-chamber?

Maybe, but some Mumsnetters scent blood.
YouGov’s regular tracker on 28-29 January put Labour on 42 percent overall and 46 percent among women.

The latest tracker, conducted last week, has Labour on 39 percent overall, 4 points behind the Tories, and down to 40 percent among women.

Has Mr Corbyn really lost 6 points of female support (close to 1 million votes) in a few days?

Almost certainly not; these are just two polls and nowhere near enough to call this a trend.
But could Labour’s stance on trans and gender issues alienate women in significant numbers?

Sometimes in politics, perception matters more than reality.
Narratives matter, and the narrative of ‘women vs Corbyn’ could quite easily take hold, and become self-fulfilling.

The gender wars are currently a niche interest,
but if this debate goes mainstream (and Britain’s slide into identity politics and culture war suggests it will),
there is surely at least the potential for a lot of women to start thinking very hard about the implications of Labour’s approach.

In short, all the necessary components are in place for a real political grudge-match,

the sort of no-holds-barred ultimate fighting cage-match that aficionados of political combat will tell their grandchildren about.

Ladies and gentlemen, take your seats, grab your popcorn and let’s get ready to rumble.
Because it’s showtime:

Corbynistas vs Mumsnetters. May the best women win.

RedToothBrush · 12/02/2018 20:51

I was just going to post that MN article.

Yesterday I posted stuff about how women were particularly pissed at Labour and their vote was softening and someone in the mainstream media should pick up on it as its showing up in the polls and no one was reporting it well.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 21:13

Labour's TRA policy has certainly irritated me and others on MN threads elsewhere
and Labour tend to get more votes than the Tories from women, or at least rely on doing so, to counteract the slight Tory advantage in male voters.

iirc, before Blair vs IDS & co, women voters tended to support the Tories more than Labour

However, a mimority of Tory politicians, e.g. Maria Miller also support TRA,
imo because it removes the need for measures to reduce inequality, if the oppressors can identify as the oppressed

  • a good trick
Next step: white people may identify as people of colour, so the race hate & equality laws can be scrapped ?
Eeeeeowwwfftz · 12/02/2018 21:50

Right. Well I for one can’t be doing with this intolerance towards trans people so that’s me off now.

mathanxiety · 12/02/2018 21:57

How about a joint invitation to Corbyn and Maria Miller for a webchat...

mathanxiety · 12/02/2018 22:02

It's not intolerance towards transpeople to point out that that there is such a thing as biological sex differences and to ask that the rush to usher in identity based use of spaces set up for the safety of bio women, and children, be very much tempered by the fact that biology doesn't disappear just because so.e people don't acknowledge it. Or history.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 22:11

It's unacceptable to help one group you consider oppressed, about 0.5% of the population,
by removing rights not from the privileged,
but rights that safeguard a much more vulnerable group that are 50% of the population.

I also posted on the Lily Madigan thread in Feminist Chat:

I'm a floating centrist voter,
but my feminism is firm, not floating.

I'm disgusted that Labour committed this outrageous betrayal of feminism
So I won't consider voting Labour until they stop throwing women under the TRA bus

BigChocFrenzy · 12/02/2018 22:14

As a lifelong sportswoman, I also see the death of competitive womens' sports here

It's time that Labour stopped offending large groups of potential voters and started being a serious alternative to this government.

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