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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 14:50

In fainss, RNorth and associates fought very hard to make his Flexcit the base of the Leave plan

I disagree with many of his views; he is an old-fashioned conservative nationalist.
However, his Flexcit would perfectly workable, or just starting off with EEA / EFTA if they wanted something looser
BUT
The Leave campaign would have lost heavily if they had proposed any particular plan, because it would have offended many of the very different voters they needed.

Cummings has been widely quoted as saying they avoided having any plan and just focused on immigration and that 350 million for the NHS,
because that was the only way they could win.

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 14:54

Tory MP today on twitter:

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 15:01

If that is a genuine MP's account, then it's disgracefully irresponsible & shocking for the childishness.
He'll be blowing raspberries next Hmm

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 15:03

Genuine, BigChoc .

DrivenToDespair · 11/02/2018 15:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2018 15:32

If that is a genuine MP's account, then it's disgracefully irresponsible & shocking for the childishness.

Really ?

It was the childishness which convinced me it was genuine. saved a blue tick.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 15:47

No surprise we're in this mess and facing worse, if this is the calibre of govt MPs Angry

Mistigri · 11/02/2018 15:47

He makes Trump look articulate.

If you were representing an employer, that would be a sackable offence. But somehow we tolerate it in our elected representatives.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2018 15:55

If you were representing an employer, that would be a sackable offence. But somehow we tolerate it in our elected representatives.

It's hard not to feel like the third estate sometimes. Which isn't really a good thing, especially for the first and second estates, seeing as what happened to them last time ...

BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 16:07

Mendacity / misleading everywhere too:

Liam Fox: "exports of our goods increased by 15.9 %and services rose by 11.6 % … in the year to October 2017."
BUT
he doesn't mention these figures are in Sterling - which automatically increases the value of the same amount of exports , because these goods were sold for a fixed Euro or dollar price
AND
he doesn't mention UK imports, which are also denominated in Euros or dollars, increased automatically too.

TheElementsSong · 11/02/2018 16:47

Mendacity / misleading everywhere too

YY, more rank hypocrisy. Funny that Leavers get utterly outraged if a Remainer even vaguely hints that, maybe, there is a slight deficiency in their understanding of the issues surrounding Brexit. How patronising, elitist, evil, etc etc.

In actual fact, it's their own ringleaders and fellow Leavers who are happily treating them as utterly ignorant and foolish, blithely scattering complete fabrications and fantasies at them, like confetti.

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 17:47

We have a new term for them 'Mogglodytes'. Courtesy of Sarah Woolaston.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-told-by-tory-mp-to-go-down-fighting-against-the-brexiteer-mogglodytes_uk_5a8074c8e4b08dfc930520a0

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 11/02/2018 17:47

Sarah Wollaston MP‏Verified account
@sarahwollaston
The #Mogglodytes plotting to oust the PM unless she bows to their demands need to face the reality that there is no Parliamentary majority for their disruptive, disastrous hard #Brexit

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/besieged-may-pressed-to-put-some-brexit-meat-on-the-cabinet-table-33snfj5p0?shareToken=ceec1d371a2e144cedd9778910822e8d

Personally think it likely that the #Mogglodytes will try oust her anyway once she has done their bidding. PM should publish the evidence & clearly set out the case for alignment & a close relationship with EU in the National interest.

Better for PM to go down fighting the case for what is the best for the economy of all parts of the UK. The indecision is no longer acceptable

Hard #Brexit sucks for Sunderland & £350m per week was always an outright deception so would be good to hear the #Mogglodytes set out how their vision of walk away Brexit will help the North Easr

#EFTA may not be perfect but it would be less harmful than a walk-away, no-deal hard #Brexit and it should be considered as the best route for transition. Link here for info from Commons Library researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2018-0031/CDP-2018-0031.pdf

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
More Faisal Islam Retweeted Sarah Wollaston MP
Quite a thread...

Personally think it likely that the #Mogglodytes will try oust her anyway once she has done their bidding. PM should publish the evidence & clearly set out the case for alignment & a close relationship with EU in the National interest.

There is this... a couple of top Brexiters do say that they are putting everything in to getting the Withdrawal Bill passed, and then the Europhile rebels “lose all leverage”

So how does the voting on the Withdrawal Deal shape up?
Remember the Government has now said that completed impact studies will inform the vote.

No alignment hard/clean Brexit: no majority?
High alignment soft Brexit: majority in Commons but not for Conservative MPs or members.

Obviously presumption that when push comes to shove so-called mutineers would not vote against the deal for fear of toppling Government..
Then again that surely applies on the Brexiter side too...

Answer - depends on what we default to - no deal WTO terms or Article 50 extension

So - in theory, if there are enough Tory rebels to reject a Withdrawal Deal in the meaningful vote in Autumn, then there are enough to vote to mandate the Government to extend Article 50, surely...

In effect, Tory europhiles threaten to “reject and extend” A50, if hard Brexiters get their way, so they have the leverage.

Brexiter MPs say there is no legal way to do this, and No Deal would be the only outcome, and so they have the leverage.

going to be quite a 12 months.

I’m not predicting either of these outcomes by the way - but what we are seeing right now is a battle for leverage on the Cabinet discussions, but in order to work out who has it, you have to reverse engineer what happens if the Deal gets voted down.

Sarah Wollaston MP‏Verified account
@sarahwollaston
Replying to @faisalislam
I no longer think that the divisions in either Party can be healed. The PM is going to have to make a choice

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 18:15

Petition update:

@remain_central
Following Following @remain_central
More
Remain Central #FBPE Retweeted Remain Central #FBPE
Thousands more signatures to help #StopBrexit in the last 24 hours.

We’ve just smashed through the 62,000 mark on the petition for a #Remain option - incredible.

Take back control from the #BrexitBadfellas. Keep going until we get to 100,000. #FBPE.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/205169

And I understand that mr timothy's intervention has led to an extra £35 000 being donated to Best For Britain in support of Mr Soros.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2018 19:00

We’ve just smashed through the 62,000 mark on the petition for a #Remain option - incredible.

You know, normally, I get the confirmation email within a second or two of clicking.

1 hour and counting.

(dons tinfoil hat) ....

DGRossetti · 11/02/2018 19:01

Aha, my ISP had routed it to "junk" ...

now the 12 other petitions I have signed in the past 3 years, on the other hand.

Arborea · 11/02/2018 20:56

Mine went into the junk folder too...

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 21:58

Great! lala matched funding, so they are appealing for donations too, as are @50 challenge. There will be some cross anti semites tonight.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 22:00

Theresa May faces revolt of leading Tory donors

Tory business donors want a clear lead from May on Brexit
They are very nervous about next GE, if they ditch May
but disgusted at the negotiating performance on Brexit

“It has been like a Premier League team playing their best against Tranmere Rovers playing their worst,” said one senior backer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/10/theresa-may-faces-revolt-from-top-tory-donors-sir-john-hall

woman11017 · 11/02/2018 23:10

Maybe they've seen this BigChoc
Jacob Rees-Mogg Is a Nightmare for Britain's Bosses
High-value manufacturers would suffer even if Britain signed trade deals with every non-EU country after a hard Brexit, according to a new research model
www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-09/jacob-rees-mogg-s-brexit-dreamland-is-a-nightmare-for-many
Funny having a tory gov which is so intent on destroying businesses.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 23:50

Excellent charts in your link, woman that clearly show why business is worried

What's at risk is not just the £230 billion a year with the EU that I posted above.
Add in the other EEA countries, then the countries with whom the EU has an FTA and those it will shortly have, well before the UK does …
RNorth, Booker & co have calculated £350 - 400 billion per year

When did the Tory party start sneering at the "business elite" Confused
Many such remarks from Tory Ultra over the last year, especially recently after the forecasts

There always has been an aristocratic strand that sneered at people who had to go into business, instead of just managing their own (inherited) wealth
but I mistakenly thought that died out 30 years ago.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/02/2018 23:52

Brexit & Aviation

Planning of European flights and confirmation of airport slots" is done by airlines & airports 12 months in advance.

Hence Brexit / transition terms for aviation must be fixed by 29 March this year
Reportedly, the UK govt have not even started negotiating an alternative to the Open Skies, which is not just European flights

Does this mean they will definitely not allow a WTO / crash Brexit ?
Or just that they have their silly heads in the sand and their hairy arses in the air ? Angry

Andrew Haines, CEO of the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) has been urging that aviation be prioritised - there are several issues involved, not just flight schedules.
He has said how some airlines are already planning to move their aircraft fleets, bases and jobs from the UK to the EU mainland.

His speech in September outlining 4 principles:

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/News/Speeches_files/UKTiE%20-%20Andrew%20Haines.pdf

"So we are very uncompromising in our view that we should not be planning for a new independent aviation safety system in the UK.

Indeed, we have consciously decided not to do that work as it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option."

mathanxiety · 12/02/2018 05:22

It's yada. One word. He couldn't even get that right.

TheElementsSong · 12/02/2018 08:01

Indeed, we have consciously decided not to do that work as it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option.

Has any Leaver ever had a response to the Aviation problem? You know, the usual practical and concrete contributions we get from Brexiters about every issue: He's a Remoaner Talking Britain Down, more Project Fear, if we all just Pull Together and BeLeave it will be fine, EU Bullying/Punishment, and finally when pressed, something about imagination, computers or drones?

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