Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

Violet No real reason other than that the electorate seems unusually contrary and belligerent at the moment and so I wouldn’t regard poor council election performance for the tories as a given.

Also, I think a lot of Labour councils are coming up for election, and as has been said, if the theme of protesting against the status quo continues, that means a vote for someone else. To be fair, there are a lot of poorly run Labour councils (and lots of poorly run councils of all stripes) stuffed with complacent and useless councillors so I don’t think we should be surprised if we get a shake up of some kind.

Petition for you all.
Parliament's vote on the Brexit deal must include an option to remain in the EU.
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/205169

The current response from the government on the above petition reads:

The result of the referendum held on 23 June 2016 saw a clear majority of people vote to leave the European Union. Parliament overwhelmingly confirmed the result of the referendum, on 8 February, by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill. The Government is clear that it is its duty to deliver on the instruction of the British people and implement the result of the referendum.
The Government has committed to hold a vote on the final deal in Parliament as soon as possible after the negotiations have concluded. The terms of this vote are clear; Parliament will have the choice to accept that deal or to move ahead without a deal.
We are confident that we will get the best possible agreement and one which Parliament will want to support.
Department for Exiting the European Union

What a complete load of bollocks.

^Web giant Cloudflare stores extreme neo-Nazi content on UK soil
UK urged to act against company that protects the websites of banned far-right groups^

The web content of NS131, a neo-Nazi terror organisation banned in the UK and associated with National Action, the first far-right group to be proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the British government, is being stored by Cloudflare in London and Manchester and delivered to users in the UK.

Five months ago a banning order against National Action, an antisemitic white supremacist group that celebrated the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, was broadened to include two aliases used by the group, one being NS131

The order means it is a criminal offence to belong or invite support for NS131, known for its fetishisation of violence, admiration of Hitler and extreme antisemitism. Yet NS131’s website remains online and protected from attack by Cloudflare

Joe Mulhall, a senior researcher of Hope not Hate, said: “Cloudflare is protecting neo-Nazi websites using technology housed in Britain. It’s been likened to guarding the podium at a Nazi rally

It’s spreading virulent racial hatred direct into the UK, at a time when we’ve suffered four terror attacks over 12 months, including one from a far-right extremist

It follows the recent conviction of Darren Osborne, jailed for life for his murderous attack on Muslims in north London last June. On Monday a white supremacist who tried to join National Action, Ethan Stables, from Cumbria, was convicted of preparing act of terror and making threats to kill

Hope not Hate found other groups currently enjoying protection from Cloudflare’s systems include major neo-Nazi forum Stormfront, key alt-right websites such as Richard Spencer’s alt-right.com, along with European far-right parties like the British National Party and the Swedish Democrats

Among the Holocaust denial websites using Cloudflare is the notorious Committee for Open Debate on the Holocaust (CODOH) and its integrated publishing arm Castle Hill Publishing, established by convicted denier Germar Rudolf

John Mann MP, chair of the all-party parliamentary group against antisemitism, said: “If Cloudflare wishes to continue to be the industry-standard for website protection, it is clearly going to have to raise its own standards. Not only is there a business case for doing so, there is a legal and moral imperative

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/web-giant-cloudflare-storing-extreme-neo-nazi-content-on-uk-soil?CMP=share_btn_tw]

This is now going on in plain sight.

Thanks Eeee, will be interesting to see what happens in the local elections, everything is so difficult to predict.

Signed
Thanks

@50 challenge folks are normally very measured. Even in US there is recourse to law to challenge what is going on.

Fundamentally in the US recourse to the law is the means to challenge what is going on.

Whereas, they are dismantling law here math There's recourse to nothing if we don't have ECJ. Very quietly they've been undermining the legal system for years. With an impotent legislature, that leaves the executive supreme.

‏*@A50Challenge*
The rule of law and democratic norms are bigger than shouty here-today-gone-tomorrow egos

We represent 1000s putting some sensible shoes on and paying attention to protect something ancient beautifu and cherished.

"We represent 1000s putting some sensible shoes on and paying attention to protect something ancient beautifu and cherished."

I do like that

Indie: Brexit is not about sovereignty – it’s about restoring the class system ?

Maybe the dream for the hard right Tory grandees.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/letters/brexit-jacob-rees-mogg-eu-referendum-lib-dems-a8202851.html

… "why posh boys such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson have jumped so eagerly on board.
…
the Victorian era and the early decades of the 20th century
…
Here was a society where the lid on working-class aspiration was clamped firmly and unyieldingly in place.
< despite the nostalgia, the Empire didn't do a lot for the UK working class, just a useful nationalist tool so they didn't rebel >

It was not until the 1960s that anyone from my family could afford to go on to further education.
Before that it was a never-ending story of youthful promise snuffed out, of a “gig economy” where if you lost your job you starved, and if a wife lost a husband she would swiftly find herself a “pauper”.

Healthcare was virtually non-existent and education beyond school-leaving age prohibitively expensive.
…
The truth is that, for the likes of Rees-Mogg and Johnson, Brexit is not so much about sovereignty
as about restoring a “natural order” lost in the aftermath of the First World War."

BigChoc, I don't think that article is referring to Irish Citizens from the ROI. I think they are discussing Irish Nationals from NI. There is a distinction. People from NI can have Irish nationality as a right not through any separate relationship to the Republic. Ireland does issue the passports etc for Irish Nationals from both territories on the Island.

I think it is discussing how Irish nationals from NI can now exercise their rights as the MEP's they elected before were part of the UK cohort. Elected by both Irish and British nationals in NI. The question is how these NI Irish nationals will exercise their rights. Irish nationals in other parts of the island of Ireland (Rep) still retain own MEP's.

Cailleach I did mean NI Catholics who have RoI nationality.
They are citizens of the RoI, which will remain an EU country

I was considering the potential loss of all their other EU rights, e.g. to take the UK govt to the ECJ to enforce their human rights if need be,
rather than their right to elect MEPs.

The MEP issue is not difficult to deal with - the RoI could add these citizens to the remit of one or more of their MEPs, so they could vote for them, e.g. like Gibraltarians until now could vote for the MEP in SW England

I am curious about the rights of (for instance) the children of Polish citizens born in NI. Or even Polish (or other EU) people with 'settled' status in NI. Can these people claim Irish nationality for the purposes of legal protection?

If you were born in the UK on or after 1 January 1983, you’ll be a British citizen if your mother or father was either:

<span class="italic">a British citizen when you were born</span>
<span class="italic">‘settled’ in the UK when you were born</span>

‘Settled’ means you can stay in the UK without any time restrictions. This includes people who have one of the following:

<span class="italic">‘right of abode’</span>
<span class="italic">‘indefinite leave to remain’</span>
<span class="italic">permanent residence as an European Economic Area (EEA) national</span>

www.gov.uk/types-of-british-nationality/british-citizenship

I've heard a lot of discussion in this back home, -math, and most people seem to believe so,
for many children born in NI to parents from other EU countries.

The Irish citizenship rules are fairly complex, as you'll know, but in its simplest form, anyone born on island of Ireland can get an Irish passport and thus prove citizenship. (If since 2005, and to parents who aren't Irish citizens, the parents need to have been resident on island of Ireland for 3 of the 4 preceding years IIRC.)

^^ So a baby born to Polish parents who've worked in Belfast for 3 years will be an Irish-born-in-NI citizen (if the parents so choose, or if they do as they reach 18) and will share the enduring rights stated within the GFA. I think!

Probably on foot of today's rugby match, Ireland v Italy. Had a quick peek at Bundee Aki in Irish Rugby squad. New Zealander, in Ireland since 2014. For naturalisation, in the case a person of Irish associations, the Minister will normally waive 2 of the 5 years' reckonable residence requirement. Also for refugees and stateless people. I don't know if he has naturalised, but suspect may have done for the national rugby squad.

I suspect being a really good rugby player (especially for Connacht) will fulfil the requirement of 'Irish associations'. There are a few of these chaps around now. I suspect they may be fast tracked.

I know what you mean BigChoc. I probably wasn't very clear (everyone's fav word). I suspect nothing to be straightforward, though. I think Somerville's phrase "Irish-born-in-NI citizen" possibly more reflects the lines along which I was thinking.

The nitty gritty hasn't even been reached yet and the brexit endeavours have been a thing of satire. Anything which requires sorting something out, especially NI "where?", does not give cause for optimism.

On DP, it took a dutchman (MEP Paul Tang) to be direct about consequences for NI. If UK leaveS CU and SM, there will need to be checks. So, they must want a hard border in Ireland if they leave both.

I would hope that would be the case, Somerville. If the parents are legally 'settled' then their child's status if born in NI is surely 'citizen'. If a citizen living in NI, then the GFA has to cover them - at least that would be my reasoning.

You don't even have to really identify as Irish to get the passport, as evidenced by Ian Paisley Jr signing his constituents' passport applications.

Irritating that Brexit Ultras like Paisley & the DUP, also probably Farage, will not lose the EU rights they are blithely removing from the rest of the UK

(paywall) Booker: With only eight months of Brexit talks left, May has locked us into an impossible position

Another dedicated longterm Leaver who despairs of the UK govt is bungling Brexit.
So of course the Torygraph have long demoted him to shorter pieces in the naughty corner.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/10/eight-months-brexit-talks-left-may-has-locked-us-impossible/

"Ever since the Brexit referendum, one enormous question has overshadowed all others

How can we completely leave the EU while still retaining access to our largest single export market, worth £230 billion a year, eight per cent of our GDP?

For six months Theresa May assured us that we would remain “within” the market.
But at Lancaster House in January 2017 she slammed the door on that by saying that she wanted us to leave the single market while somehow continuing to have “frictionless” access to it
…
After 11 months of talking we still haven’t resolved two of the three problems the EU made a condition on negotiations moving on,
including the Northern Irish border.
The EU has made clear that, by our choosing to become “a third country”, border controls are inevitable.
…
But after October this year all negotiations will be at an end. We still haven’t begun to unravel all the complexities of how our major economic sectors can continue trading with the EU once the transition is over,
from chemicals, pharmaceuticals and aviation to the motor industry. These alone are worth nearly £100 billion a year.

Mrs May still gives us not a clue of what she means by that “deep and special relationship” she hopes we might have.
Yet all this and much more has now to be resolved by October

The EU has slammed the door on our retaining those “passporting rights” that helped to make London the financial centre of the EU.

We haven’t begun to negotiate for those “Third Country Operator” certificates needed to allow our airliners to continue flying in EU airspace,

or even how we replace the EU licences that allow us to drive in EU countries;
< except for 1,200 out of 75,000 commercial truckers >

let alone what happens when we drop out of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies next year.

Mrs May still gives us not a clue of what she means by that “deep and special relationship” she hopes we might have in the future.

Yet all this and much more has now to be resolved by October, in just eight months,
for two of which, July and August, Brussels will be on holiday.

A lot of worrying facts in that article Bigchoc. We are indeed running out of time. Andrew Rawnsley in the Guardian thinks the Government can't govern, the Opposition can't oppose, and it's now time for Parliament to take over.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/11/since-this-government-cant-govern-parliament-must-take-charge

That article reminds us that May has a Brexit "war cabinet" in the sense of being at war with itself
Their bitterest anger and almost all their energy is spent on fighting each other

Frankie Boyle 😂😂

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/night-of-the-living-dead-britains-brexit-team

If the EU had created Brexit as a deliberate The Producers-style disaster to demonstrate how difficult it was to leave,
they’d probably have been tempted to tone down the casting.

The key players include

Liam Fox, a man who looks like he could finish a steak while looking at footage from Hiroshima; 😷

Boris Johnson, who for the first time finds himself in a cabinet without it involving someone saying: “Quick! My husband’s home early!”,😷

and David Davis, Sid James after a This Morning makeover and a half-hearted tilt at therapy.😷
…
It seems that everybody wants Theresa May to be prime minister, with the exception of a majority of the electorate, and herself.

Just for lolz, on the "other thread", I half-heartedly wanted to dig up some semblance of a plan - any plan - with dates and milestones that was issued by the Leave side before 23/6/2016.

Not easy is it ?

FFS the plans I helped DS draw up when he needed a hand to organise his coursework/classwork would have been more detailed.