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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

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DGRossetti · 07/02/2018 16:35

Did I read upthread that the assumption with all this customs shit was that the presumption is that NI will NOT be part of the UK at the point of Brexit?

So by what process will NI be removed from the UK ?

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2018 16:52

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Here is the full regional breakdown of the economic impact assessments that MPs have now been able to see

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
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RedToothBrush · 07/02/2018 16:56

That didn't last very long before a denial required

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
No10 say that NHS will not be part of a UK-US trade deal.

Here is full answer from No10 spokesman in lobby ruling out opening NHS to the UK-US trade deal

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
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Motheroffourdragons · 07/02/2018 16:58

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2018 17:06

David Allen Green said that in order for us to be outside the custom union, logic says that NI must leave the UK or the UK government is in breach of an international agreement.

The point was essentially reminding us of Schrodinger's Border and the GFA.

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prettybird · 07/02/2018 17:08

I don't think that there was a specific suggestion that NI would no longer be part of the UK - just that the only way for the UK Government to square the irreconcilable circle of its own statements of "No Customs Union" and "Being able to control our own regulations" is either a hard border in the Irish Sea or a unified Ireland.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/02/2018 17:09

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 07/02/2018 17:14

David Lammy
‏*@DavidLammy*
PM is promising that NHS won't be part of any future UK-US trade deal. I tabled Amendment 21 to European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill 12 months ago to guarantee this. Government didn't support it...

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
RedToothBrush · 07/02/2018 17:19

But Faisal Islam was right to say:

Why did the DUP have a representative at the EFTA Debate Earlier today?

Repeat. Why did the DUP have a representative at the EFTA Debate Earlier today?

I said. WHY DID THE DUP HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE AT THE EFTA DEBATE EARLIER TODAY?

This sounds like the DUP might well be onboard with an EFTA deal. Without the DUP, May CAN NOT get a majority unless there are enough Labour Rebels (there are not enough Lexiter MPs anyway). And even with those few pro-Brexit Labour MPs that opportunity to score such a bit hit to May's government would be too irresistible for them to miss. At most you'll get a Hoey. By contrast the Brexiteers have 33 ERG hardliners and its difficult to see them getting many more. How May will push through us leaving the customs union is as big a mystery as Schrodinger's Border itself. She COULD manage to get through an EFTA option with the help of opposition parties. The problem she has, is selling this to the grass roots and Johnson. And that's what it ultimately comes down to I suspect. Holding off as much as possible, so there is no opportunity to take her down before a deal is struck with the EU.

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Frankiestein401 · 07/02/2018 17:28

not sure that samcoatestimes interpretation is correct - saying the NHS is not for sale is not incompatible with allowing parts to be run by a US corp. it wasn't an unequivocal yes/no so nothing is certain?

RhuBarbarella · 07/02/2018 17:55

I think I remember that NI costs more than it delivers and without CAP would be losing a lot of money. Scotland of course brings money to the table. Ditch NI, keep Scotland. Simples.

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2018 18:02

I thought you guys might enjoy this nice graph of the regional loses given in the impact report. I do like a nice graph Wink

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
thecatfromjapan · 07/02/2018 18:07

The regional breakdown is scary stuff. North East loses 16% of its GDP with No Deal. Is that me reading correctly?

I do wonder how a country remains viable if it loses 10% of its GDP overall. I do wonder how an area remains viable losing 16%. That's a great deal of money - at a time when income across the UK falls, making subsidisation through the 'transition' (absorbing that loss and accommodating) is not possible.

Surely a lot of councils will go bankrupt? There will be mass unemployment - with its attendant issues and impact on health and education. People will lose their homes. Bloody hell.

thecatfromjapan · 07/02/2018 18:08

I think if I were choosing where in the UK to live - or to locate my business - right now, it wouldn't be the North East. Sad

DrivenToDespair · 07/02/2018 18:15

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 07/02/2018 18:26

I wonder if you could get the support to reverse Brexit if Londoners held street party having now seen the regional breakdowns ?

DGRossetti · 07/02/2018 18:27

Wales is looking pretty miserable in all scenarios

That's just the weather Grin

DGRossetti · 07/02/2018 18:30

I think if I were choosing where in the UK to live - or to locate my business - right now, it wouldn't be the North East.

I'm stuck in the West Midlands ...

NotReadyToMove · 07/02/2018 18:41

Yep. It’s unfortunate that it’s exactely where I live :( with a business I can’t move unless I want to start again from scratch.....

NotReadyToMove · 07/02/2018 18:44

Well seeing that this government has told us again and again that it’s not privatising the NHS despite getting more and more contractors in, selling bits to the NHS to Brandson etc...
I would take that their coment about not selling the NHS to the US will come under the same line.
I wouldn’t trust them.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2018 18:49

Just think of all the cheap property you can buy up...

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lonelyplanetmum · 07/02/2018 18:51

Interesting graph. To put the figures in context (and I know it's I told you so ish) I would like to reminisce about a debate I had with a vociferous MN leaver. It was on another thread at the time of the referendum.
The gist was me saying that our contribution to the EU budget at around 1.2% was a very small percentage of GDP especially bearing in mind the size of the market we got access to. But he / she was saying but it's still billions and they'd rather have control of that contribution too thanks...

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 07/02/2018 19:27

Not entirely sure how London coming out relatively compared to other regions unscathed will go down. Surely twisted into some glory hunting elite selfish bastard.

TheElementsSong · 07/02/2018 20:19

this nice graph of the regional loses given in the impact report.

No point discussing it with Leavers though. It'll be "fake news" and "saboteurs/traitors talking Britain down" and "nobody has a crystal ball" and "all forecasts (except ours predicting sunlit uplands and the imminent collapse of the EU) are inherently WRONG" and so on.

And if all else fails, "even if we have to eat rats and cockroaches it will still be worth it because Sovereignty and Control".

woman11017 · 07/02/2018 20:20

Eurovision Song Contest: You decide. Smile
BBC have used blue lights to blot out the euro flags, but there's lots!

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