The Brexit Arms

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

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do you want me to go on about all the trade deals we will do in the future which will be specific to us?

Yes, please do explain how on Earth could Little Britain negotiate better trade deals on our own compared with the ones EU is able to get from the partners. You know what happens to the smaller players in those negotiations, right? They receive their deals...

I'd love to hear about all the wonderful trade deals that are going to allow us to export all our services. Because we know just how many of those there are at the moment...

That we will regain our sovereignty etc.?

I'm pretty sure, you can't regain what was never lost.

And Jacob Rees-Mogg stated yesterday that the UK is a sovereign nation as a member of the EU. (He didn't mean to, bless. He actually worried that the proposed transition deal would lose the UKs voice in the EU - tacitly admitting that the UK has - until now - always had the final say.)

@Doubletrouble99

You've had some reactions...

I suppose in the face of now fairly clear evidence that the UK will be worse off economically, I still fail to see what we gain in return. Mind you, it is easy to conclude that raising trade barriers leaves one worse off - which all versions of Brexit do.

So if I'm being asked to pay, what am I paying for?

Sovereignty is BS. We now know it's the opposite- we lose it because we will be beholden to EU regs and possibly directives if we want to trade with the EU - we will.

Trade is BS. We basically curtail trade with the largest (richest) market in the world at our doorstep.

Cost is BS. Replicating the EU institutions we are leaving will be much more expensive.

I agree we might be able to hide assets offshore. That could be good for me personally.

@Doubletrouble99

Another option is to simply say: you made a mistake and in light of the evidence you now have you no longer want to leave the EU. it appears many in the UK are now following that road.

Here's on such individual on Twitter just now:

I voted Leave but now am convinced Remainer. One of things which really riled me in referendum was @GeorgeOsborne's economic analysis. I thought he was fiddling the figures - today's leaked report (8%/5% relatively poorer by 2030) means I owe @GeorgeOsborne an apology. Sorry.

According to DExEU, the UK will lose 2% GDP under soft Brexit, 5% under hard Brexit and 8% under no-deal.

Which are not dissimilar figures to the Treasury report from April 2016 (one of the ones that got rubbished as “project fear”):

After 15 years:

WTO scenario - 7.5% loss GDP (equivalent to £5200 per household)
Bilateral trade agreement - 6.2% loss GDP (equivalent to £4300 per household)
EEA - 3.8% loss of GDP (equivalent to £2600 per household)

www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

Just dipped in and haven't read the whole thread so this simple point may already have been made.

One thing I will never understand is why the 8% economic loss figure is dismissed by some.

By contrast 'saving' our 1% contribution to the EU budget was seen as a predominant motivator (eg Gove + Boris) in the run up to the referendum.

For the sake of completeness, more fantastic news to rejoyce on the Brexit Farms today: another government contractor is folding and UK domestic demand for cars fell 10%.

Otoh car production in 2017 at 2nd highest level since 2000 (despite fall in domestic demand) and Capita restructuring to learn the lessons of Carillion.

There is always a silver lining on the Brexit Farms, even a 40% share price collapse is a positive sign of restructuring, which is weird because restructuring news typically lead to positive price action.

If Capita can't make a profit, despite fleecing the DWP for their shitty "assessments", you really have to wonder where this surfeit of talent that is supposed to pull us out of Brexit is ?

Probably queuing up for Maltese passports.

Another success story courtesy of David Dottard and team:

EU rejects Brexit trade deal for UK financial services sector

EU Brexit negotiators have set out a tough line on financial services, ruling out an ambitious trade deal for the lucrative sector and arguing that Europe would benefit from a smaller City of London, according to confidential discussions among the other 27 EU member states.

In a rebuff to the UK, which is seeking to put financial services at the heart of a new trade deal with the bloc, an internal EU27 meeting this week concluded that future arrangements should be based on "equivalence” — the limited and revocable access given to third-country institutions — rather than a wide-ranging new pact.

At present, such provisions give financial groups from countries such as the US conditional access to the single market for some services.

“There was a strong commission message that there would be no special deal,” said an EU diplomat briefed on the discussions — a first attempt to thrash out the bloc’s position on the issue before negotiations with Britain start in March.

Au revoir NHS!

London if the trend for outsourcing to incompetent private sector reverses as a result of Carillion / Capita woes then why would that be bad? Alternatively if Capita / Govt get a grip on staffing / regulating / pricing / speccing outsourcing and corporate governance thereof that would work too?

Stellar share price rises on the back of fleecing the public sector doesn't really float my boat.

Hang on, surely the government outsources to cut cost, right? If outsourcers fail then the government will have to raise taxes or cut services. Either sounds bad. The failures cause job losses, and cost regular investors such as pension fund beneficiaries. The only people benefiting from the debacle are short-selling speculators. Here we graciously assume that the reason for the difficulties is not that the Brexit-embroiled government is actually running out of money, which of course would add another layer of tragedy to this.

Nope, the Government supposedly outsources to harness private sector expertise.

The failures don't cause job losses if it is a given, as with Carillion, that the services still have to be delivered.

Don't know where to start assessing whether Carillion etc's previous underfunding of their pension schemes is greater or lower than potential losses to all pension funds from a fall in their share price.

Public sector finances have been improving ever since the Brexit vote so not sure where last sentence logic is.

@howabout Public finances have improved not because of a Brexit economic blossom but due to unprecedented tax raids on high earners and small businesses. Will this prove sustainable? Here is a hint:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/rich-folks-are-fleeing-london-and-lagos-wealth-report-shows

BTW Leavers are quick to bring up the example of Switzerland as the model for dealing with the EU. No need to yet again explain in full why this is an invalid analogy, I'll just say: bring on 10% personal income tax Swiss style! (although, on second thought, sadly that would mean goodbye to the NHS and 90% of social services).

Wow . just wow.

School of thought also that hard Brexiteers are trying to rush through Brexit to avoid the EU tax avoidance directive.

And of course the Daily Mail (owned by Lord Rothermere and his offshore trust) and the Daily Telegraph (owned by the Barclay brothers and their offshore trust) are both pushing hard Brexit.

Move along now, nothing to see here.

IDS, remember all the leaks have been xxx

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/911777/Brexit-news-latest-update-leaked-document-UK-EU-European-Union-economy-growth-video

Perfect metaphore for Brexit

IDS, remember all the leaks have been xxx

IDS was referring to Osborne’s shock to the economy report, not the one I referenced up thread. And whilst the economic shock of a rapid triggering of Article 50 didn’t have an instant effect, the predicted 12% fall in the value of the £, rising inflation and fall in real wages has occurred.

fact base

Just picked this off Twitter. Not read yet as it's "yuge" but it seems like a high quality compendium of Brexit related facts. Well organised and well written from what I've seen so far.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/liam-fox-admits-being-in-eu-doesnt-stop-more-trade-with-china

Why does he only admit this now?

If the EU were such an obstacle to trade why does Germany do so well?

If it's true for China which other countries does this apply to?