The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
🍺 🍻🍷🍹🥂🍾🍸🍺🍻🍷🍹🥂

Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

All welcome 🍺

🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

@Moussemoose
It's a shame we can't give a weighting to each vote based on how long you have to live with the result.

Mouse : the salient point is that the electorate loses ~2% each year at the upper ages, and at 18 years gains 2%.

So considering the graphic I just posted, you can work out that there's already been a demographic shift towards REMAIN by about 3%.

I'm not sure I set too much store by some polls stating REMAIN ahead by 10%, but they are ahead.

Simply put, young people are REMAINERS.

Faith really? After reading my posts on constitutional issues you need me to clarify that I don't really think votes should be weighted. Ffs.

Btw (whisper) I don't really have a unicorn either.

Time is on our side. And the turnout just won't be as high benefitting remain.

Hold your nerve, my unicorn and I predict Ref II.

I did say I presumed you were joking to be fair - it didn't sound like the sort of thing you would actually mean judging by your previous posts.

Some people do push that narrative though sadly.

Ok this took some doing.. these are rounded figures and I ured towards remain to get the numbers..
UK population.. figures 63 million
Voting age 50 million.. Split according to Wikipedia 2016
Somewhere I found the figures as to how many of the age groups were registered to vote
The link above gave the % for each age. EU voting split.
33Million.. The 17 M to 16M with some not voting..

18.to 24 4.03 voted 29% 1.247 L 2.783 R
25 to 64 19.892 vote 49.70 % 9.904 L 9.988 R
65 and over 9.36 voted 64% 5.990 L 3.370 R

I know it's a bit nerdish to try to work the figures , but I was curious to find out some sort of split...

Electoral commission had the total electorate listed as 46,500,001 for the referendum (which seems a weirdly almost-but-not-quite round number):

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

Remain: 16,141,241 (48.1%)

Leave: 17,410,742 (51.9%)

Total Electorate: 46,500,001

Turnout: 72.2%

Rejected Ballots: 25,359

The 33Million is the 72.2% that turned out... that got me first time I did the figures...

but since the 24 to 64 was so close as a vote.
It did mean even if all the under 24's had voted to leave it still wouldn't have turned the tide on the results.. as 90% of over 65's are able to vote, and did so but for leave.

I think on this one AgnesSkinner the person who mentioned the thing about the Education and the 3% turn it would have caused to Remain by people going onto A'levels may well have been more spot on than anyone else realised.

I know it won't turn the tide this time, but as the higher education levels become more the norm in voters in the middle bracket, it will equal out the over 65's vote, and then the under 24's vote will count more and more for what this country decides...

How about allowing all British Citizens to vote (i.e expats), and either allowing all UK residents - whether from the EU or outside - to vote, or not allowing non-British citizens to vote? Sounds fair? That would have done it.

90% of over 65's are able to vote, and did so but for leave.

I think you mean that turnout for the over 65s may have been has high as 90% (from the Opinium research); of those, Lord Ashcroft polls had a split of 40% Remain / 60% Leave.

And maybe, given that the younger generation will be living with this decision, extending the vote to 16 and 17 year olds, as was done for the Scottish Indyref?

I am sure if David Cameron had even thought he would lose, he would have made sure those who could vote to get him the results were included, there must be a reason for them not being included, as I seem to remember a court case being brought, but the answer was no, was it the Ex-pats?

That's the one group I do think should have had a vote.

I think when I looked there were about 2 Million 16 to 17 year olds.
Say the same percentage registrar as the under 50's that's 65%
1.3 Million extra votes.
71% vote Remain.. the same as the under 24's
so while you get .9 Million extra votes.

17 Million Remain to 18 Million Leave

So it wouldn't have made any difference to the results, as the 60% vote of the Over 65's would still have swung it to leave.

You can't say the over 65's can't vote as that's wrong with an increased life span this group could have 30 plus years to live here..

So I still think educations will play the biggest part should there ever be another vote in a decades time,

Interested in the assertion that as the population ages the vote will change to a remain vote. Actually I don't think that is necessarily true. I think that as people get older they have always tended to vote in a more conservative way. So the people in their 50s now may well change their views when the get into their 60s and so on.

Just came across this. How do Leavers feel about losing among others their rights to paid holiday under the EU Working time Directive?

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/tory-plot-pull-uk-eu-working-time-directive-see-7m-uk-workers-lose-rights-paid-holidays/18/12/

I noticed the article was from December 18th last year, and is based around:

"...Brexit hardliners are today expected to demand Theresa May ditches safeguards post-Brexit which were designed by the EU to protect employees from working excessive hours..."

Did this happen in the end?
Was the article proved correct?
Do you have a link to an article which outlines the outcome?

That is a good question Faith.

Assuming this is a hardliner Brexiter objective, though, how do you feel about it?

Olivia - do you really think we wouldn't have paid holidays if it weren't for the EU! We had holiday pay long before the EU working time directive and we will have paid holiday long after it no longer applies here.

Assuming this is a hardliner Brexiter objective, though, how do you feel about it?

Why would I get worked up about an unfounded assumption?

My feelings, about pretty much anything the government might do that the EU did/does better, would be "well, at least I can vote this lot out"

A choice I never had with EU choices.

Worth repeating ad nauseam I guess: the people of Europe can vote EC out. Also, the powers of the EU are really limited compared to the powers of the UK Parliament and the government, therefore it's really not a fair comparison.

To reply to both Double and Faith:

I suppose it concerns me to think the govt is thinking about taking these rights away. Whether it is successful or not is not the point. Whether i ends up being implemented isn't either.

The point is they are trying. Why? What are we missing?

Are they actually trying to do that though?
There was no real basis to that article at all.

That last post of mine reads as snippy, it isn't the tone that was intended btw.

Yes they are. I believe this is part of the Withdrawal Bill to-ing and fro-ing.

Hypothetically then - presuming there is really an intent to remove the right to paid leave for workers.

In the current set up of a minority govt, there will be no political backing for this to get through parliament - if there were any at all, it would only be a tiny minority of MPs who would do so, so it wouldn't pass.

If (which I think was the basis of that article) the govt were hoping to slip it through using the Henry VIII Powers with no scrutiny or vote, then politically it is suicide.
To put through something like that which directly & adversely affects the majority of the electorate, would ensure that the next election would be lost.

For that reason alone it just wouldn't happen.

And not just the next election lost - the trust would be irrevocably damaged & would never recover.

Trust in politics & politicians is (I think) the single biggest problem at the mo, and not just in UK.

Lack of trust is the basis for a large part of the Brexit vote definitely (in my opinion only obvs!)