The Brexit Arms

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

All welcome 🍺

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@Bearbehind

You may be right. "We shall see."

Indeed olivia

It's such a shame the only discussion is between people on the same side!

@Bearbehind

Indeed.

They don't have the appetite at the moment.

It would be a bad idea now, but the mood is starting to shift. The Brexit 'protest' voters will loose interest. When faced with the harsh reality the waverers will shift. A loud harsh rump will remain but the reality may well move the middle.

Don't mention it now. Wait. The idea will grow. Frame the new referendum really carefully in relation to what will trigger a change. It's possible.

@Moussemoose

That aligns with my view. It's my central scenario.

But Bear's is not implausible.

mousse the trouble is, the narrative is still only this bollocks about a 'deep and special relationship'; there's still no detail.

There's less time until the end of A50 than has already passed since the vote.

There's simply not enough time for sentiment to change in any measurable way once they know the detail.

You've heard the Leavers on here; they always comment on how there's no point in speculating what might happen as we just don't know what will be agreed (even though it's blatantly clear what can't be achieved).

If I had any more faith in the government I might think that was a deliberate ploy so they can say they did their best and this is all that could be achieved and there's no time to do anything else.

I fear the reality is they are just so fucking arrogant they still think the cake and eat it option is possible.

If a leaver has made a big fuss about it they are not going to retract publicly. Like 'shy tories' they only reveal themselves in the poll booth.

The debate just has to ensure a referendum, a properly framed referendum. There are enough legal issues to make a repeat a real possibility.

And as I keep on saying young people are more likely to vote, and protest voters won't get out this time.

It's a possibility.....

It's an intriguing concept mousse but I just don't see how it can happen in reality.

Where is the instruction for a new referendum going to come from?

KLAXON!! Chit Chat Alert, Chit Chat Alert!!

The last few posts bought this to mind, I could be wrong of course.

Yet another useful contribution there time

As always bear.

I like to try and keep a sense of humour when all around are losing theirs. It’s my mantra and life’s too short .

Bear: from the Lords and public opinion.

Perhaps Labour will change its tune as it sees voters leaving them because of Corbyn's view on Brexit.

At this stage, I can't say your view is wrong or right. Or that mine is either.

olivia, I'm genuinely intrigued by this- how could the Lords or the public force another referendum before March 2019?

@Bearbehind

I don't think the Lords can force anything. The public can't either.

But the Lords can request the Commons to debate the issue. And the public can also do this via petition.

Parliament devises the terms of the referendum. The last one was rushed through with little thought of the constitutional implications as it was widely assumed remain would win.

If (and it's a very big IF) politicians could hold their nerve it's possible to frame it stop constant reruns. A lot more thought has already gone into another referendum so the technicalities have already been considered.

I think it needs a clear 5% margin is needed along with a parliamentary majority of 60%+ to ensure it is visibly democratic.

Or we might just end up in the EU in all but name, paying the money but with no seat at the table.

Mousse: do I have this right? You know more about this than I do.

HoC can do whatever it wants - more or less. That's how we got in this mess.

Lords can't force anything. A petition can force a debate.

HoC can push anything through if their is a will and a majority.

HOC can push anything through if their is a will and a majority

That's why I don't see this as a possibility; whether deliberately or unintentionally, the terms of the deal, therefore the detail that could potentially make Leavers change their minds, isn't going to to known in enough time to rally another referendum.

The options for a deal are pretty clear now yet Leavers are still refusing to acknowledge we will end up paying for access to SM as we cannot revert to WTO and we cannot retain it for free, yet people like soulstew are still saying 'I've just got a hunch it will be fine'

I simply don't think there's enough time or inclination for sentiment to change and a new referendum to be called.

@Bearbehind

I see that.

But voters are powerful. Tories could completely tear their party apart via Brexit if the people don't want it (and even if they do and it blows us all up) and many may wish to preserve it.

Bear you may well be right.

But, but, but there is a possibility. Vocal leavers will not admit they were wrong. But faced with a debate based on a form of agreement maybe people will change, or simply fail to vote. The absentee voters elected Trump effectively.

Ah but this is silly old me with my attachment to facts and debate. These threads should really show me hold fashioned I am.

But there's no opportunity to vote en masses before A50 ends?

The difficulty politicians face is the time limit. Normally something this complex is kicked into the long grass.

I suspect they are looking at a way to fudge the end date. Once that happens we have a real chance of reversing the decision.

I genuinely don't see the point in pinning hope on a change in sentiment and a new referendum.

It's as delusional as Leavers ignoring the facts of the situation IMO.

I'm happy to be proved wrong and told, in what circumstances, based on the things me left and current position, this could happen but, for now, it seems right up there with the Brexit unicorns.

^^ 'things me left' should be 'facts'

Deck knows what happened there!