Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

Too right it is not the agreement. It was the easy bit. And look what a chaotic mess it was. Any agreement has to be in accordance with the points agreed on. No matter how much the gov't tried to dodge them. I'd say the EU have their papers ready. They haven't been pissing about while all that guff went on.

It's a fucking nonsense and unless our trade negotiaters and government really understand this we could tie ourselves in our own knots.

I fully expect that to happen, given that they have so far managed to take 17 months to come up with nothing very much, but have managed to annoy some of the headbangers in the process.

I suspect the gov't thought they could use all three points as leverage. Make it political. That is why the EU made sure they were dealt with first. No horse trading on these issues.

The EU has a full compliment of the creme de la creme of negotiators. Not starting from scrath. They know what they are doing. Not really ploughing a new furrow. Slightly different, but not that different.

scratch

Fintan O'Toole's latest analysis

Britain can have any Brexit it likes, so long as it is green.
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-has-just-saved-the-uk-from-the-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096

Don't get too exited, you EU lovers. This is not the Agreement on the UK leaving the EU. It is an agreement to talk about all matters, and is still governed by the crucial principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

Let's see how this pans out. My guess is that we will still end up leaving with no deal and trading on WTO, which will be fine by lots of us.

'No deal' now means a commitment to remain in single market rather than WTO.

Guys, it's Chipolata Man - don't bother replying to any specific points in his post. (General conversation is very helpful though, as I'm still unclear on the implications... perhaps because they are supposed to be unclear?).

"The two sides agreed there would be need for cooperation on nuclear regulation and police and security issues."

"There was an agreement to ensure continued availability of products on the market before withdrawal and to minimise disruption for businesses and consumers."

These are really good. And responsible. The loopers couldn't have cared less about the impact for people in a cliff edge scenario.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/08/main-points-of-agreement-uk-eu-brexit-deal

hardline Brexiter was on the radio phone-in saying that if he didn't get his vision of Brexit, he will stop supporting Tories & always vote UKIP in future.

Wasn't the Referendum supposed to unite the Tories? Harhar. Maybe there is a silver lining.

The chipolata had been given a shift. Someone somewhere is upset.

Can anyone tell me, how can there be no hard border w NI, at the same time as there will be no CU or SM? Can all the goods then just go through NI?

and this: "the UK will ensure “full alignment” with the rules of the customs union and single market that uphold the Good Friday agreement. " - isn't this an oxymoron?

while leaving CU and SM?

hardline Brexiter was on the radio phone-in saying that if he didn't get his vision of Brexit, he will stop supporting Tories & always vote UKIP in future.

Let him get on with it then. They managed to get one person elected as an MP after he'd crossed the floor, but then lost him at this election. In local Govt they appear to be finished.

Ah... my reading is about how no hard border & no CU/SM can co-exist is:
"We will follow ALL their rules about goods, services, movement of people and capital. They will set the rules & we will pay less money b/c we won't have a vote in what the rules are. We can say with confidence we are not members of EU or in the SM."

So even though it walks & quacks like a duck, it won't be a duck. Easy, right?

This is being spun as "alignment of rules only in certain areas covered by GFA..." but those areas will be sweeping and huge. It will take years to figure out which if any areas aren't covered under "alignment" and can be exempted to allow UK to negotiate separate trade deals.

Further thoughts on 'mirroring the CU and SM' is who is going to guarantee that this happens? I can see disputes arising when goods are rejected by the EU because the standards have drifted into divergence.

I just read that people in NI will get to keep their EU citizenship. So does this mean in fact NI remains and the rest of the UK leaves? Or will all UK citizens get to retain EU citizenship if they want? I believe that idea was being floated straight after the referendum.
Will be funny if we end up with Brexiteers choosing if they want to be citizens of the EU or not and a two track Britain.

hardline Brexiter was on the radio phone-in saying that if he didn't get his vision of Brexit, he will stop supporting Tories & always vote UKIP in future.

There's a few years ahead of trolling Leavers in general, because simple maths tells us that you'll have at least an evens chance of getting one whose personal vision of "Brexit" isn't anything like what we are getting.

I don't care how childish it is

If this were a novel, then this is the part at which Remainers would suddenly [pretend to] give up, and stop talking about Brexit because "it's sorted". And then feed off the warm glow of the various Brexit camps arguing with one another in exactly the way winning teams inevitably end up squabbling over missed chances, who messed up, and "if onlys" ....

oh hang on

Nick Macpherson‏ @nickmacpherson2
Future is clear. High level deal to leave EU by 2019. Long transition. Canada style FTA c2024. Much more certainty. Suboptimal endpoint.

Alan Beattie‏ @alanbeattie
You mean we'll be covering EU-UK trade talks for seven years? rocks back and forth in pain

George Peretz QC‏ @GeorgePeretzQC
Don’t worry. It’ll be much longer. Our jobs are safe.

Alan Beattie‏ @alanbeattie
I have a two-year-old daughter and I'm assuming the steady work from this will see her safely through university, perhaps graduate school.

Simon Hix‏ @simonjhix
Ah, but it won't be all over even then, as arguing about and tinkering with our relationship with the EU will be a permanent feature of our politics from now on, as it is in Switzerland ... you'll be able to buy your daughter a house and pay for your grandchildren's education!

Alan Beattie‏ @alanbeattie
I'd emigrate to New Zealand, but we'll probably be trying to negotiate a CANZUK deal in a decade or so.

Jonnyboy‏ @Jonny75boy
And then you can cover the reentry process of UK back into EU in around 2035

I just read that people in NI will get to keep their EU citizenship.

Is this because they can opt for Irish citizenship by virtue of the GFA, or a detail which hasn't been properly sorted out yet? Will there need to be separate NI passports issued which say European Union on them?

I just read that people in NI will get to keep their EU citizenship. So does this mean in fact NI remains and the rest of the UK leaves? Or will all UK citizens get to retain EU citizenship if they want? I believe that idea was being floated straight after the referendum.
Will be funny if we end up with Brexiteers choosing if they want to be citizens of the EU or not and a two track Britain.

IRISH citizens in NI will get to keep their EU citizenship. Not all people in NI.

(awaits the flood of hard line unionists applying).

Isthere: there can’t be. No hard border and equivalence really are red lines now in any future deal. The only way this can change is if the DUP loses the balance of power and the Tories have a strong enough majority to push through what they want.

I really cannot understand why the PM and pretty much everyone else has taken so long to grasp the basic fact that the DUP will not budge on any convergence with the rest of the U.K. They will take a Labour government over that any day of the week. So the only options now are a hard Brexit where the whole of the U.K. leaves on the same terms and no EU trade deal at all or a soft Brexit with no hard Irish border and equivalence across the UK. No hard border dictates the terms of the equivalence.

Has anyone read "The Silver Locusts" by Ray Bradbury (sometimes known as "The Martian Chronicles") ?

I was a kid when I did, but is my memory of the plot being a search for previous Martian life by human settlers who - in the final chapter - realise that to all intents and purposes they are the Martians ?

I wonder what the landscape would look like in 7 years time when what's being planned today has to take effect ?

For those Irish citizens here, what are your thoughts now of the likelihood of a United Ireland coming about any time in the near future? Say 5 -10 years?

I wonder if the EUs strategy is based on a contingency change of UK government ?

If I were you , Wolfgang, I really wouldn't put too much effort into things right now. They'll only change when the UK has to have an election.

Good idea. Prost !

Why would there be a flood? Most unionists neither need nor want EU citizenship. Unless you’re wanting to work or live there, it’s not very useful. It also doesn’t have the emotional and symbolic pull that it might have to some of us who really believe in the European project. There there are the unionists who would love EU citizenship but would never apply for an Irish passport. It’s a complex place full of people with complex identities.