Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

It’s a complex place full of people with complex identities.

As is the EU ...

About citizens right
medium.com/@nicolas.hatton/my-thought-on-todays-breakthrough-on-citizen-s-rights-5a85dd85eb4f

My understanding is that FoM will apply only to the country you are currentky living in (Brits in the EU) too.

I am wondering what people in NI will do when faced between having strong feelings about the Union and refusing an Irish passport AND keeping their FoM with all its advantages.

I actually have no idea what will be the strongest feeling. A but like EU citizens who have live sin the U.K. for 20 years, have never applied for citizenship but are now contemplating doing so, with regret.

Another question for me are about people in NI who do have an Irish passport but not a British one.
So far, this has never been an issue. But if/when the U.K. is out of the EU, what will be their position? I’m thinking of a poster on these threads having problem with her ds school because their passport wasn’t British...

So YY to the complex identities.
And also YY to the fact the U.K. is normally pretty good at creat7ng special circumstances that keep everyone happy.
I’m wondering what the deal will be though.....

Why bother with a united Ireland if there isn't a hard border? Things were working pretty well up to the whole Brexit shitshambles.

I think a no deal crash or a hard border would push a united Ireland but if the CU / SM is kept in all but name and you have access to an Irish passport if you need it (e.g. to access free university, work in Europe), why would you bother no matter what side of the fence you are on? A run-down NHS is still better than the Irish medical system in many ways and the EU will probably still support cross border initiatives in terms of cash via Rol.

And, from the republic's perspective, I'm not convinced when it comes down to it that people would vote to allow it join. Apart from border areas and the hard core republicans, people don't really care that much about the north. It's a different country and certainly my experience in Dublin was always that the level of knowledge or engagement was pretty low ( a lot higher than in GB...). Sinn Féin built up its base in the republic more through grassroots community politics than their NI position.

I think this is looking like a good result for the island of Ireland. Arlene stays British but has less worries about economic meltdown biting her in the ass and the republic's economic ties with NI AND GB have a much better looking future. Despite the right wing press, I don't think for a minute Ireland was ever gunning for a united Ireland, it has always been about economics, peace and protecting Irish citizens.

Of course if the nutters manage to oust May and go WTO rules, it is another story.

But if/when the U.K. is out of the EU, what will be their position? I’m thinking of a poster on these threads having problem with her ds school because their passport wasn’t British...

But what that poster's school had overlooked was that the right to be Irish had been enshrined in the GFA, and from what I remember her saying, there were further clauses, which meant that the school couldn't just make up arbitrary rules. I don't think that will change as long as the GFA remains.

I am wondering what people in NI will do when faced between having strong feelings about the Union and refusing an Irish passport AND keeping their FoM with all its advantages.

I actually have no idea what will be the strongest feeling. A but like EU citizens who have live sin the U.K. for 20 years, have never applied for citizenship but are now contemplating doing so, with regret.

It started pretty much straight away after the referendum results. Google released stats on searches overnight as the results came in. There was a massive spike in searches relating to Irish passports in Holywood - a middle class, wealthy, unionist town.

For months after the referendum it was genuinely difficult to find a post office with Irish passport forms in stock, they kept running out. Bit inconvenient for those looking to renew their only passport in advance of a trip!

Ian Paisley Jr advised his constituents to get an Irish passport to preserve their EU rights.

BIL signed a passport form for the leader of the local Rangers supporters' club - Irish, naturally. He was asked to keep that one quiet.

So in effect the ‘wave’ of people going to get an Irish passport is already done and dusted....

Just to reiterate what Livelem said:

Ian Paisley Jr MP DUP advised his constituents to get an Irish passport to preserve their EU rights.

twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/746316224024481792?lang=en

The same Ian Paisley jnr MP DUP, ardent Brexiteer, who said the DUP would not countenance a 'soft' brexit.

Legatum driven hard Brexit was going to benefit those who wanted Singapore style tax havens etc. Even though it was shocking those pushing for were willing to sell all of down the river to fill their coffers, it did at least make sense as to why they’d want that.

Can someone explain who would benefit from the Canada style Brexit and the Norway style Brexit (plus or minus), other than the political capital of being seen to fulfil “the will of the people”? I think I’m missing am important piece of the picture here.

Just to sound a note of caution, a study of the history of the Southern States in the US during and after The Reconstruction is a clear demonstration of "the law" saying one thing, while peoples experiences and protection of "the law" are another.

If you add that the the way the Home Office is already behaving (i.e. illegally), then I would be very concerned about being able to enforce any rights I might have - even if they are in an agreement. It's not like the history of Britain hasn't been littered with appalling behaviour by the state. Especially to people perceived as "foreign".

Can someone explain who would benefit from the Canada style Brexit and the Norway style Brexit (plus or minus), other than the political capital of being seen to fulfil “the will of the people”? I think I’m missing am important piece of the picture here.

Trade lawyers and negotiators?

Can someone explain who would benefit from the Canada style Brexit and the Norway style Brexit (plus or minus), other than the political capital of being seen to fulfil “the will of the people”? I think I’m missing am important piece of the picture here.

Russia and the US ?

I can't see that anyone will benefit. We will end up paying more for a worse deal, assuming May or her successors manage to pull something off.

Sorry I would no to a united ireland. As much as many hate to admit it it works (ed) fine as it was. Those who wanted to be Irish could be those who wanted to be British could be.

The difference between the two countries even areas separated by a field is huge!!!

The difference between the two countries even areas separated by a field is huge!!!

Could you elaborate more? I am genuinely interested. Were there always differences before 1922 or has the divergence become greater since? I was thinking in terms of how E and W Germany diverged, I suspect they were always quite different even before Communism and the Cold War exacerbated those differences.

Can someone explain who would benefit from the Canada style Brexit and the Norway style Brexit (plus or minus), other than the political capital of being seen to fulfil “the will of the people”? I think I’m missing am important piece of the picture here.

You are making an assumption here that the government has a plan. It has already admitted that there is not even a consensus in the cabinet on what the future agreement should look like. May is playing a survival game where she is taking each step as it comes with no final destination in mind. She is desperately trying to juggle pressures from all sides (Hard brexiteers, disaster capitalists, remainers, DUP, etc...) and simply reacting to people shouting as and when it happens. In her bumbling desire to keep everyone happy she will end up creating something that everyone finds unsatisfactory.

May is playing a survival game where she is taking each step as it comes with no final destination in mind. She is desperately trying to juggle pressures from all sides

Never has the simile of a "House of Cards" been more apposite.

If you add that the the way the Home Office is already behaving (i.e. illegally), then I would be very concerned about being able to enforce any rights I might have - even if they are in an agreement.

That’s why The3Millions insisted s much that everything should be automatic rather than something you have to apply for.
It seems crazy that the U.K. has never bothered to apply any of the restrictions he could have implemented re movement of Europeans. But now seems dead set on being extremely strict and uncompromising.

And YY the current government has already proven how unethical he is in its approach to immigration.
And few poeople will have to money/time and will to fight them at the level of the ECJ to gain their right to stay.

Ugh. I feel depressed and despondent. David Allen Green is probably right: as a Remainer I have managed to keep on going with the help of a kind of rescue fantasy where somehow a soft/no Brexit was produced as if by magic.

Instead, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll end up with no ECHR, SM or CU, and I feel gutted. Sold down the river by the mainstream media and the Labour party. And with the best will in the world, the Lib Dems have been neither use nor ornament in effecting opposition.

As a fully paid up pinko liberal, and member of the 'elite' it's painful to watch the country get shafted by a toxic combination of the rapacious and the narrow minded. I was starting to feel comforted by seeing some new names on the board, but now I feel that it's too little, too late and we'll just have to suck it up and apologize to our children

Peregrina: consent and parity of esteem are at the heart of the GFA. That means people in NI can chose to be Irish, British and both. It also means that unification can only come via the majority view in NI (not the ROI). There is just no evidence that a majority in NI wants this.

The Catholic minority is growing and might well become a majority, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to growing nationalist sentiment. Many younger Catholics believe they are economically better off in the U.K. for a start. There’s also a growing NI identity which is more important than nationalist or unionist for some. The added cromplication is that there is precious little evidence that the ROI wants to inherit what would be a million angry unionists and an economic back water. NI is expensive and hugely subsidised by the British exchequer (and the EU of course). The ROI simply cannot afford it.

Am generally a pessimist but it seems clear to me that no hard border has to involve a version of the CU and SM. They’ll call it something else and have to really as we will actually leave the CU and the SM when we leave the EU. So we leave them and then go back into something very similar. TM saves face by coming up with a new form of words for the SM and CU, but in reality it has to be close to that to make a soft border possible. It’s not great but it could be a lot worse.

And with the best will in the world, the Lib Dems have been neither use nor ornament in effecting opposition.

It's hardly their fault. They tried to behave like grown ups in coalition, but it's clear the vast majority of the UK can only handle things in a simplistic knee-jerk dog-whistle manner. Like they were the only party to have to go back on an election pledge ? Bearing in mind their minority status.

One school of thought may be that as a whole, the UK is getting what it jolly well deserves. In more ways than one.

Has there been any reaction from Labour? Haven't seen much not surprised Any thoughts on what their next move should be?

For those Irish citizens here, what are your thoughts now of the likelihood of a United Ireland coming about any time in the near future? Say 5 -10 years?

Not great, we don't want it either. Despite the weird fantasy that the Irish government is desperately wrangling this situation to get NI incorporated into Ireland, very few want that nightmare to happen. It's irritating that so many UK people want to offload it onto us now though, like you're not making things difficult enough without trying to foist the results of a previous boutique of hubris that left Ireland very badly affected just because you can't be bothered with the consequences of your ridiculous decisions.

So the Canada/Norway option is looking more likely not because there are people wanting that to happen and are trying to make it so but that it's what we'll inevitably drift into.

That is depressing. I'd hoped the removal of the hard brexiteers vision might reduce the impetus for Brexit but I see that that was probably too optimistic.