Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

So if this is just a fudgier version of the previous fudge and means that should they not come up with a solution to keeping NI aligned with the rest of the uk whilst not having a hard border, the likelihood is that we have now removed hard Brexit from the list of options available to us?

And if that is the case, am I being wildly optimistic in thinking this might make remain more possible because we’ll have to have fom, abide by ecj etc but without having a say in the rules?

Or is the overlooking the whole problem of Brexit that nothing is logical or rational?

No hard border and no divergence means either SM and CU or something very similar must stay. There really is no other way apart from hard Brexit.

"Philippe Lamberts, the leader of the Greens in the European parliament, who has seen the text, told Politico: “May wants the shortest possible time limit. The EU wants 15 years.”

don't know where I got 8 yrs from.

So essentially, the Government has officially confirmed it is aiming at a soft Brexit.

I wonder if it will survive the frothing of the Brexiteers?

Thank you again so much for these threads from a constant lurker!

I am feeling remarkable optimistic re. the news this morning, but worried that I haven’t yet spotted the hidden downside

Sixth, the whole of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland, will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/detailed-theresa-mays-six-commitments-to-northern-ireland-36389709.html

This is an interesting one. Considering people from NI have the right to continue to be uniquely Irish citizens/EU citizens.

I'd worry about Gove seeming to agree with May. It is better when you can see where his knives are.

Buckinghamshire County Council and Steve Baker Brexit conference today.
Buckinghamshire Brexit Summit
8 December, 2017
Time: 10:00am - 4:00pm
Registration from 9.30am
Price: Free
Location: The Old Town Hall, St Mary Street, High Wycombe, HP11 2XE

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
This account for a long time has set out the delusions and lack of reality of Brexiteers.

Well after well, gosh after gosh.

But Remainers are just as, if not more, deluded and unrealistic.

1/
Brexit is not going to be avoided - like magic - because of the sheer accumulation of pratfalls and untruths of Brexiteers.

The Article 50 notification changed everything.

(That is why I once doubted it would happen, such was its gravity.)

2/
Unless something currently not in view happens, UK is out of the EU by automatic operation of law on 29 March 2019.

And today, EU27 has "sufficient progress" in protecting its own back: ie "an orderly Brexit".

3/
There is a lot in the joint "sufficient progress" report for Leavers to be unhappy about, regardless of the spin.

But, Remainers should be far more unhappy. Now almost no positive reason for EU27 to accept a revocation of Article 50 by UK.

4/

Remainers can cling on to "unilateral" revocation - that is ECJ would uphold as legal a revocation by UK even if rejected by EU27. Maybe.

But even with "unilateral" revocation there would probably be a requirement of good faith. A complete change of UK's outlook on Brexit.

5/

EU27 in the meantime can (to use a phrase) now get on with their lives. Their selfish interests are now, in effect, protected by the joint report.

Only risk would be no deal at all, again also less likely as parameters set and agreed.

6/

Nick Crosby #FBPE @ nickcrosby
Agreed. Appears both No Deal and No Brexit options lower probability. It’s now what type of future new relationship. Which cd be a v bad hard #brexit still, Canada style

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
Quite.

No Deal vs No Brexit is now yesterday's debate.

Now it is, in effect, Norway or Canada.

I’ve read 8 years for the ECJ too.
And 5 years transition period.
Both of those are taking us over the next election so in effect EVERYTHING can happen.

This ‘agreement’ is saying very little so IMO, the EU has been kind and is letting the U.K. do what they wanted, aka linked the trade negotiations process with the agreement on NI and EU/UK citizens.

I dint think that’s good.
The U.K. seems to have managed to have its own way again (also called have your cake and eat it) Despite all the posturing from the EU saying ‘this is how it works. We won’t move from that’

I’m starting to think that TM and DD aren’t that bad at that game actually. Not sure if it’s a good or a bad thing.
Actually it might be really good for the U.K. and not so good for the EU.

I also suspect that the aim has always been to more or less stay within the EU but wo saying the U.K. is. Very few changes (thanks to the alignement to the EU of the whole of the U.K.) but a feeling that we have regained our sovereignty.

I've seen 8 years mentioned a lot too, so you're not going mad caill

For me personally there were two main things I wanted to happen out of this after article 50. No Irish border and the scope of those henry viii powers limited. One down hopefully, fingers crossed for the second. Obviously I have hope we'll go more Norway than Canada, but those two things seemed the most dangerous fall outs.

Anyone hear Gove on Today ?
Still repeating lie about more money for nhs as a result of leaving sm and cu. and this clip is what they used in the 9 o'clock bulletin too.
I used to defend the beeb to the hilt. No more.

EU27 in the meantime can (to use a phrase) now get on with their lives. Their selfish interests are now, in effect, protected by the joint report.

Whilst leaving eu citizens in the U.K. and Brits in the eu fighting their battle for the protection of the rights they have and have now lost.

Simon Hix @ simonjhix
“Sufficient progress” deal leads me to update my expectations:
No Deal Brexit 10%
Basic FTA (Canada minus) 50%
CETA 10%
Canada+ 10%
Soft/EEA 20%
Remain

Simon Hix @ simonjhix
Canada+ means passporting for fin services, which will be difficult. Plus

1. time & ratification constraints make even a CETA-type deal difficult
2. EU has goods surplus w/ UK, while UK has services surplus w/ EU => EU happy with a basic FTA & UK will accept, initially at least

Sixth, the whole of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland, will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice

This is interesting. Presumably Irish citizens of NI will still be able to appeal to the ECJ and there will be absolutely nothing that the British Government can do to stop them?

The Article 50 notification changed everything.
(That is why I once doubted it would happen, such was its gravity.)

I doubt whether May appreciated its gravity. The penny might be dropping now.

Now it is, in effect, Norway or Canada.

For a lot of Remainers, Norway, although a compromise, would do. Canada much less so.

Nick Gutterridge @ nick_gutterridge
On the Brexit bill, Barnier confirms: 'The UK will pay neither more nor earlier than if it were a member state.'

On the Brexit bill, Barnier confirms: 'The UK will pay neither more nor earlier than if it were a member state.'

This isn't 'going whistle' however.

The Farage gives his verdict. Don't usually pay him any mind, but it popped up on my feed.

Sorry, can't copy and paste on my tablet so attached a screenshot.

Adam Wagner @ adamwagner1
Key bits of UK/EU ‘joint report’ on citizens rights:

1. UK citizens in EU and EU citizens in UK and their families will be guaranteed full EU rights
2. BUT only if they moved by a specified date (to be decided)
3. ECJ rulings on those rights still apply up to the specified date

The ‘specified date’ is the date of the UK’s withdrawal - this is yet to be decided as the article 50 date could feasibly be extended

UK citizens in EU before withdrawal have full EU rights - so full FoM surely.

and remain at 1 or 2 %

Politically Remain would still be difficult because of the stance taken by May in the early days of going for a hard brexit, and the constant mantra of 'the will of the people'. How long will it be before people begin to change their minds, and are seen to be changing their minds?

Years ago, I did history A level and that was one thing which struck me then - that issues which beset one generation appeared to be total non - issues to the next.

*So is this the mother of all fudges - we leave the CU/SoM to appease the headbangers, but 'the UK will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.', which means in practice that we can't leave the CU/SoM? That May hopes no one notices the contradictions?&

Exactly.

The UK leave the EU but not the CU/SM. The UK retains its obligations but relinquishes any power or say.

Headbangers are easily fooled.