Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

Leave.EU are getting more and more bonkers.

A thread by an ex-Tory, advising Labour how to get elected. Really good. I reckon these ideas would work.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/940309212978180096

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/why-guy-verhofstadt-angry-david-davis-because-britain-has-brexit-strategy

Well, that went well: David Davis’ attempt to reassure Brexiteers that the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union on legacy issues was not legally binding has led to the European Parliament, which ultimately can vote down any deal between the UK and the EU, to immediately seek legal protections over existing agreements. Guy Verhofstadt, the Parliament’s chief negotiator, accused Davis of “damaging trust” in the process.

The British government’s problem is one of success: the success of English.

Slight digression: it’s only when we reach the age of four that our brains can understand that other perspectives than our own exist. This is why the under-fours are so bad at hiding – they think that if they can’t see you, you can’t see them, so they cover their faces or eyes.

The British government is having a similar problem: both it and the pro-Brexit press have forgotten that although few people in Westminster can speak another European language, almost every politician in every major European capital can speak, or at least read, English.

By and large, a German politician can get away with slagging off the British in an interview with the tabloid Bild, while a French one can do the same in Les Echos. But everyone can read the Telegraph or the Sun online. And because British bluster in these outlets gets back to European politicians' own electorates, that makes accommodating the British harder. (The same thing happened with Jean-Claude Juncker’s appointment as President of the European Commission. Angela Merkel had hoped to block it, but the domestic reaction in Germany to his monstering in the British tabloids forced her to back off.)

The irony is that this is, in a sense, the last revenge of the British empire. When Denis Healey was overseeing the final stages of Britain’s retreat from empire, Aden’s penultimate governor, Richard Turnbull, told him that ultimately the British Empire would be remembered for just two things: the game of association football, and the expression “Fuck off”.

Turnbull could have added a third: the spread of English. Thanks to the British Empire, English is the lingua franca of much of the world, including its cultural and political superpower, the United States of America. And when Brexit is done and dusted, the last reminder of British membership of the European Union will also be English, which will continue to be commonly spoken in Brussels as long as Hollywood makes movies.

But the strength of English is also a great weakness to Theresa May. At the end of this week, when it's time for the European Council to ratify the agreement between the United Kingdom and the Commission, the intemperate comments of her Brexit secretary mean she might find herself on the wrong side of the British Empire’s other legacy. And it's not association football.

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Ahead of govt possible defeat tmrw - couple of Tories vote with SNP and Lib Dems on single market amendment in Commons tonight - easily defeated but numbers interesting - Labour vote against
^Govt's won 100pc of votes so far, but tomorrow could overturn that - whips frantically trying to talk rebels down, promise of ministerial statements in morn, but as things stand, numbers look bad for govt -
One rebel says 'it will come down down to the 2s and 3s'

Naveen @ scottishgooner
Is this why Anne Marie Morris had the whip restored today?

Faisal Islam @ FaisalIslam
Tory “mutineers” being called in one by one to see whips over the meaningful vote amendment 7 tomorrow... told they are holding the line on need for statute before PM signs off Withdrawal Agreement... “2 options: they accept it or I vote for it” said one..
news.sky.com/story/amp/government-scrambles-to-avoid-defeat-on-eu-withdrawal-bill-11167330?__twitter_impression=true
.. talk of a written ministerial statement seeking to give reassurance, but some of the MPs feel burnt from not delivered A50 bill assurance

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Correction - interesting numbers tonight - couple of tories, SNP and some Labour MPs vote with Lib Dems on single market amendment - lab front bench abstain

Don't know who the Tory Rebels from tonight are. Someone has made a point though.

On the bright side of the road:
Pink Hanukkah :A good wind up to the religious zealots. It is the Day of the Doughnut (really)
And lovely Sadiq Khan doing a Hannukia event in Trafalgar Square.

(paywall) What next now the trade talks can begin?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/what-next-now-the-trade-talks-can-begin-fsgrbbdq9

What happened last week?
The European Commission said “sufficient progress” had been achieved in three key areas of negotiations — money, the rights of citizens and the Irish border — for proper trade talks to begin.
When is Brexit day?
Britain will leave at 11pm UK time on March 29, 2019.
How much will Britain be paying?
The exit bill is estimated to be between £36bn and £39bn, but many fear it will go higher.
About half will be paid over the two years after Brexit between 2019 and 2021
and the rest over several decades to cover the cost of projects that Britain has pledged to fund and the pensions of EU officials.

What will happen to EU citizens?
The 3m EU citizens living in the UK on Brexit day in 2019 will be able to carry on living and working here.
Babies born after that date to people who have qualified under these rules will be included in the agreement.
EU citizens legally resident in the UK and UK citizens in the EU will be able to leave for another country for up to five years before losing their rights.
Will the British courts or the European Court of Justice (ECJ) enforce their rights?
Britain has resisted efforts to make the ECJ the dominant court. British judges will make the decisions.
They will be able to seek guidance — which is not binding — from the ECJ for a period of eight years
but after that the ECJ will play no role.
What will happen in Ireland?
There will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic.
The UK will seek a trade deal that helps this.
If it does not get one, the UK will seek to align rules in areas that affect the Good Friday agreement with those of the EU.
This will be achieved using equivalent methods rather than by staying in the single market or the customs union.
What will happen next?
On Thursday the leaders of the 28 EU nations will meet in Brussels to sign off on the deal.
Any tweaks are expected to be minor.
Will anything else be decided at the summit?
Britain is likely to secure an agreement about the terms of a transitional deal to bridge the gap between Brexit at the end of March 2019 and the start of a full trade deal, which Theresa May wants in place in “around two years”.
What does Britain want from a trade deal?
In her speeches at Lancaster House and in Florence, May had said she wants a bespoke deal that builds on the trade deal that Canada signed with the EU but which reflects the UK’s proximity to the continent.
The UK will also seek a deal on services that will give the financial services sector some access to the EU and a customs arrangement to have as near frictionless borders as possible.
< very unlikely without EEA / EFTA - the govt does not seem to have progressed much beyond its aim of "cake & eat it" >

When will the cabinet decide on Britain’s negotiating position?
The full cabinet will meet tomorrow and will probably discuss Europe in some form < negotiations won't get far until May plucks up the courage to let the Cabinet discuss and agree on a policy>

but the policy will be decided by May’s Brexit “war cabinet”, due to meet in the week before Christmas.
Still undecided is how much Britain will seek to mirror EU rules and regulations after we leave the EU and how much we will diverge.

Which ministers are on which sides?
Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are demanding Britain be allowed to diverge in all areas without having to ask permission from Brussels
< which contradicts GFA / NI border commitment >
in order to fulfil the referendum pledge to take back control of Britain’s laws.
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, support them.

They are up against Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and Damian Green.
May is the swing vote but the “divergers” have a 4-3 majority without the prime minister.

Will Britain’s position be made public once it has been decided?
May will probably make a speech in the new year once a joint approach has been approved by the cabinet outlining the basics,
but the UK’s bottom lines will be kept under wraps < the EU knows them better than the cabimet do >
When will the trade talks actually start?
February at the earliest, because the other 27 EU countries will now have to agree a unified negotiating position for Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator, and his team to follow.
Some sources suggest the talks will not get going until March.

When do the trade talks have to be completed?
Davis has suggested negotiations could continue until the 11th hour in March 2019 < thick as mince >
but EU leaders insist a deal must be done by October to give the European parliament a chance to scrutinise the deal and decide whether to support it
< the EP and the 38 national and regional Parliaments. Maybe even the UK Parliament - or has Henry VIII stopped that >

red you don't believe they'll rebel? Are most tories in good health? There was a corking labour one under Callaghan where the ill were brought in for the vote, I think.
The @No10Vigil are planning a long old shift tomorrow.

That cheers us up, woman Good for Sadiq !
< he's the Muslim peril, according to Trump >

woman iirc, there were quite a few votes during Callaghan"'s term when the quite sick were trundled in
I remember a photo and brief interview with one Tory MP who had cancer, nevertheless attending for an important vote

quite sick were trundled in That's what I meant, it got pretty desperate, and I think tories knew that this term would get like that again.

Khan did that in the evening, bigchoc was trying to sort out pollution in Brixton in the morning: Sarf Londoner, unknowingly bettered, according to some.

R North scathing about May's HoC speech - & about JC:
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86701

"Something very strange happened yesterday.
Theresa May, prime minister of the United Kingdom for the time being, stood in the Commons to give a statement on the outcome of Friday's Brexit negotiations.
She delivered a litany of nonsense, one impossible scenario after another.
Her own party loved her for it.
The opposition, confused and ill-prepared, failed to make an impact.
Mrs May lived to see another day.

In a sane political system, where MPs knew what they were talking about and we had an opposition worthy of its name, she would have been shredded.
Her statement would have been challenged, dissected and torn apart, its author humiliated.
But we don't have a sane system and for a leader of the opposition we have Jeremy Corbyn.
And that's why Mrs May lived to see another day."

Labour's Munich Agreement behaviour is not going unnoticed on the twitter net.

Looking only at party politics, Labour don't want power until at least a year after Brexit - and its "transition" period - have finished
Otherwise, the rightwing media will blame all ill effects on Labour's betrayal / incompetence

Hence why noone is challenging JC's leadership at all

• the leadership hopefuls want him to stay until Brexit is over, so that they can take over once normal politics have resumed

But will normal politics resume, especially after a crashed out Brexit ? e.g. after DD 's 11:59 cake hasn't appeared

I agree with BigChoc - Labour are biding their time, so that the Tories get the blame. It's a dangerous game though.

As for May and N Ireland, if by some miracle she manages to win a few by elections, and no longer needs the DUP, they will be promptly thrown under a bus, and a border will be established in the Irish Sea.

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video

The Express - erm. Oh dear.

e.g. after DD 's 11:59 cake hasn't appeared

Isn't that actually his 10:59 cake? I believe we are regaining sovereignty and taking back control on Brussels time - not GMT.

From BigChocFrenzy's Times article:

"What will happen in Ireland?
 There will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic. The UK will seek a trade deal that helps this. If it does not get one, the UK will seek to align rules in areas that affect the Good Friday agreement with those of the EU. This will be achieved using equivalent methods rather than by staying in the single market or the customs union."

This is not possible. This is the very thing that Arlene Foster and the DUP rejected last Monday, leaving May looking pretty stupid. Keeping the GFA, and having no hard border means either staying in the customs union or treating NI differently. Unless of course "equivalent methods" means "treating NI differently from the rest of the UK"

Good morning, Westminstenders - Doug Jones has beaten Roy Moore in Alabama! A great start to the day. Dare we hope for a similar triumph in parliament when MPs vote on Amendment 7?

Just bursting onto the thread with news that apparently the execrable Roy Moore has been defeated by Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate race. A closer race than many people would have liked to see, sadly, but it seems Jones squeaked ahead. Moore has at this point refused to concede, but it is likely that Jones is now the first Democrat Senator to represent Alabama for 25 years.
Yeehah!

x-post, shouldn't have wasted time dancing around my kitchen...

for you, math. It is brilliant news - in the UK, the narrative was that Moore was going to win quite comfortably. For once, it was fantastic to wake up to an election upset.

Yay! Good news from across the pond.Despite (or because of) Farage bizarrely going over there campaigning for Roy Moore!

www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/opinion/roy-moore-loss-alabama.html

Amazing news. Though it sadly drives home that whilst America can overturn their stupid decision, ours is likely to have permanent damage