Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
Asked to name a concession EU has made, Barnier says he is not "at this stage insisting the UK should repay the removal costs" for EU agencies.

For me immigration is the dog that hasn't barked

Me too.

Interesting times still to come.

Re:BBC

Far Right Watch
@FarRightWatch
#bbcqt : Just used an audience question from Johnathan Jennings, a Far Right thug arrested numerous times for Malicious, and Violent Threats on the Internet against Muslims. We and others track him.

Far Right Watch
@FarRightWatch
Johnathan Jennings, multiple Hate Speech Account runner on @BLAZINOAH @BZNTweets & others, arrested for Malicious Communications last night.
3:10 pm · 12 Mar 2017

Far Right Watch
@FarRightWatch
From an audience member : "
Not only that but they went to him more than once, but it was edited out of the tv version - and when they got volunteers to sit in the seats for the light and sound check he was one of the chosen ones."

Regarding Robert Hamill it was more than the police failing to intervene.

Allegations that they were advised by police to dispose of their blood stained clothing.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/decision-to-halt-prosecutions-over-loyalist-mob-robert-hamill-killing-overturned-36390660.html

Yes, so 'helping out' the perpetrators really. I saw where Rosemary Nelson was working with his family before she was murdered. Again, alleged collusion in that murder. But organs of the state shutting it down.

It is astounding how the state as a rotten or colluding actor is ignored. Not the neutral actor as presented. Policy from the top, I'd imagine. Most states have some element of this (some more than others), but it was partisan and extreme in NI.

Was it his little daughter who spoke on stage when Clinton was in Belfast?

www.rte.ie/archives/2015/1201/750416-catherine-hamill-visits-the-white-house/

Oh, different one. Her dad was shot dead by Loyalist gunmen.

For those of you on Twitter, can I recommend Femi? He is doing a hreat job on Brexit. The kind of person i hope does actually go into politics. Here he is grilling the frog-faced fucker on LBC

mobile.twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/938456838940643332

I agree Cailleach, Guru-Murthy will have a hide like a rhino in that job. I just thought Raab's belligerence with him suggested he was rattled. Trying to convince Leavers that it's all going to plan? Or relieved that it's possibly not the Hard Brexit they've been baying for, as they've belatedly realised what a disaster that'd be? 'Yes were getting what we wanted... aren't we successful?'

Dunno.

www.channel4.com/news/dominic-raab-on-brexit-deal-its-your-wilful-inability-to-accept-that-weve-actually-made-a-positive-step-forward

DD's weasel words on the 58 dodgy dossiers

strongly suggest "follow the weasel" as a watching strategy for Westministenders
I see possibilities for ambiguity already, e.g.

Paragraph 45 in that statement of agreement:

“the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union"

Are they just sloppy or is someone clever behind the scenes (not DD, but Olly Robbins ?) playing with nomenclature
- the EEA "single market" vs the EU's "Internal Market"?

afaik, the EU's Internal Market consists of the 28 (soon to be 27 !) EU member states.
whereas the EEA SIngle Market includes the EU countries plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Thoughts ?

Yanis Varoufakis is getting a lot of screen time on what happened last time an EU country was almost pushed by fascists into a crash out of the EU.
I remember a Norwegian politician saying before the ref, you could have what we do, but you won't like it.
Femi's brilliant QuentinSummers
At least 50 pro EU groups up and down the country doing events today, twitter feed is full of them .

I was out most of yesterday and am trying to catch up so sorry if this question has already been answered: where does yesterday's bottom line that we stay in some sort of equivalence to the Single Market leave amendments asking for SM guarantees in the Repeal bill? Has that rather ambiguous bottom line bought off the Tory Remain rebels or is there all to play for still?

BigChoc both the EU and EFTA describe the internal market and the single market as being the same thing:

europa.eu/european-union/topics/single-market_en

In the EU’s single market (sometimes also called the internal market) people , goods , services , and money can move around the EU as freely as within a single country. Mutual recognition plays a central role in getting rid of barriers to trade.

www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement

EEA Agreement

The Agreement on the European Economic Area, which entered into force on 1 January 1994, brings together the EU Member States and the three EEA EFTA States — Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway — in a single market, referred to as the "Internal Market".

Caught a glimpse Mail headline today :

REJOICE !!!

Which suggests to me there has been some backroom deal to present this as a win for whatever Brexit the readers of the Daily Mail thought they wanted.

Would it count as too goady to start a thread in this forum titled:

Rumour has it, some leavers are a little glum.....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/08/post-brexit-trade-talks-will-not-start-until-february-at-earliest-eu-tells-uk

The EU has told Theresa May it will not start discussing the terms of a trade relationship with the UK until February at the earliest, and only then if the British prime minister has taken a grip of her divided cabinet and come up with an agreed vision of the future.
While May was being lauded by her ministers in London on Friday, EU officials in Brussels said that when leaders did move the Brexit talks forward, the first negotiations would have to be limited to the terms of a time-limited transition period.
The EU was unable to engage in substantive talks about a future trade deal without “more clarity” from May on her cabinet’s vision of a free trade agreement with the EU, a senior EU official said.
Suggestions put forward from London so far have been dismissed as “cherry-picking” and “having your cake and eat it”. “The UK has not been particularly specific,” the official said. “It has been setting out a number of red lines, but what the UK has been saying so far still entails a number of internal contradictions and does not seem entirely realistic to us.”
In recent weeks, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have suggested the British could deregulate to gain a competitive advantage in certain sectors while enjoying frictionless trade with the European continent and Ireland.
The EU official said of trade talks: “I read in the press that the cabinet has not yet discussed this matter … We need more information from the UK to really be able to engage.”
An additional complication is that the delay in finding agreement between the commission and the UK government on the opening issues has left EU member states without a settled position on the principles that will instruct trade talks.
A slim leaked draft of the EU’s guidelines on the outlines of a transition period says they will put forward ideas at the next meeting of leaders, which is likely to be in February or March, officials said.
Such is the uncertainty in Brussels about the British government’s vision for a future trading relationship, however, that those talks could easily be delayed further without a UK cabinet plan, or if there are disputes about the transition period.
Negotiators have until October 2018 to strike a broad agreement on trade and transition, to pave the way for a fully fledged trade deal and other treaties to be negotiated after the UK leaves.
The set of EU guidelines to be agreed at a summit next week details the EU’s terms for a transition period. The document insists the UK will have to accept current and new EU laws, as well as the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, without having any seats in decision-making institutions.
As it will no longer be an EU member, the UK will also fall out of the current free trade agreements the bloc has with countries around the world, and will need to come to an arrangement to avoid sudden obstacles to global British trade from 29 March 2019.
Gibraltar, the disputed British overseas territory, will not enjoy the benefits of a transition period until the British government comes to an arrangement over the future of the rock with Spain, it has been confirmed.
However, Brussels is confident May has accepted the limitations that will be applied to the UK during the transition period. The EU is also open to Britain starting negotiations with countries around the world on future trade deals during the transition period.
Earlier on Friday, the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, expressed his concerns that Downing Street was not aware of how difficult the coming negotiations would be.
“While being satisfied with today’s agreement, which is obviously the personal success of Prime Minister Theresa May, let us remember that the most difficult challenge is still ahead,” Tusk said. “We all know that breaking up is hard. But breaking up and building a new relation is much harder.
“Since the Brexit referendum, a year and a half has passed. So much time has been devoted to the easier part of the task. And now, to negotiate a transition arrangement and the framework for our future relationship, we have de facto less than a year.”
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, made it clear on Friday that such were the UK’s red lines about leaving the single market, the customs union and the jurisdiction of a the European court of justice that Britain could only expect a trade deal along the lines of that recently agreed with Canada, which does not cover financial services.
Officials revealed that other countries around the world had approached Brussels to warn that the UK could not be given better terms than currently existing free trade agreements as it would be discriminatory under WTO rules.
“If we were to give the UK a very lopsided deal, the other partners with whom we have been engaging, with whom we have entered into balance agreements, will of course come back and challenge those agreements,” the official said.
The suggestion from some in the UK that the terms of a trade deal could be largely settled by the time Britain leaves the bloc was also dismissed by officials.
One senior official said: “Now you have got 15 pages [in the agreement between the UK and the EU]. That took nine months. The [Canada free trade deal] is 1,598 pages. You can draw your own conclusions.”
One leading MEP said the European parliament, which has a veto in the final withdrawal agreement, could refuse a Brexit transition deal if it was not happy with the outcome of the next phase of negotiations.
“We will only accept a transitional period after Brexit if we are satisfied with the outcome of the second-phase of negotiations,” said Manfred Weber, the head of the centre-right European People’s party bloc in the European parliament.
Guy Verhofstadt, the parliament’s Brexit coordinator, said outstanding issues remained from the first phase of talks, including allowing future spouses to join EU expats living in the UK and ensuring promises on Ireland could be enforced, but he said the chamber would still vote on a resolution on Monday approving the widening of the talks.
Additional reporting by Philip Oltermann

Handy cook's tour of the Single / Internal Market. Worth clicking through to the links in the final para on the current state of play and the work still in progress.

fullfact.org/europe/what-single-market/

Rumour has it, some leavers are a little glum.....

I luv it.

"Officials revealed that other countries around the world had approached Brussels to warn that the UK could not be given better terms than currently existing free trade agreements as it would be discriminatory under WTO rules."

MAGIC.

Who knew Brexit could be so complicated?

"Officials revealed that other countries around the world had approached Brussels to warn that the UK could not be given better terms than currently existing free trade agreements as it would be discriminatory under WTO rules."

Don't They Know Who We Are?

Most FTAs grant the parties "Most Favoured Nation" status, which means that if another country subsequently gets better terms in a future FTA deal with the same country or bloc, then each MFN country must receive comparable terms.

So, if the UK gets a special cake deal, then Canada, S Korea, Japan and all the other countries which have deals with the EU will also demand the same cake.

So all those Brexiters claiming the EU should give the UK a special deal are really demanding that the EU destroy its Single Market - which is probably its greatest economic asset, far more important than trade with the UK

If the UK leaves on WTO terms, then all the other 160 or so non-EEA countries will be checking very carefully that the EU does not grant the uk< any special concessions on customs checks, borders, tariffs, non-tariff barriers etc

Oh my word! Watched some of Question Time. Bernard Jenkins is unbelievable. He is still going on like in the ref with porkies and as usual the BBC let it all stand out there uncorrected.

Had to stop and rewind. Lies and a red herring. Just in one of his small speeches. After saying the EU and Ireland are trying to leverage more concessions and more money from the border issue. Ah Bernard, that is what you wanted to do.

If there was only a bare bones deal, just dealing with the housekeeping, we then move into a deal which is already set up for us by the WTO.
LIE: WTO not a trade deal

If they just go WTO this they wouldn't have to pay a huge exit bill
LIE: It would be sovereign debt and that would be reneging. The EU would pursue this and block at WTO. Maybe even start a trade war. And good luck finding partners to trade with who don't tie you down to the nth degree afterwards.

We're only going to pay a big bill if we get a good trade deal
LIE: As above

We would immediately have control over our regulations and tariffs. We could immediately cut tariffs on some of the foods you pay taxes on. Example tangerines.
LIE: The regulations and tariffs are set out by WTO. You can only twiddle with things if you treat everyone the same and deviation only when in a trade deal. All set out by WTO to be followed.

Tangerine a red herring. I don't know what the tarriffs are on this essential basic foodstuff. I don't even know if there are tariffs on ones coming from north Africa. Oranges from Spain don't have tariffs at the moment.

If they immediately went bare bones and WTO, the country would have a lot more money to spend on protecting upland farming. We've always protected upland farming.

LIE HALF REMEMBERED: Aside from plucking the unsubstantiated fact the country would have a lot more money out of thin air, I half remember something about Westminster weren't handing over subsidies to Wales and Brussels had to be approached to get them to release the funds. Anyways don't some of the looney Brexiteers want tariffs removed from everything. Minford and Leadsom. She was nodding away and grinning moronically at Pascal Lemy when he said if you do that what have you left to negotiate? You have given everything away.

It is the European Union's fault it was last minute. Bonkers idea to have impact assessments 'cos it is not really possible. Even though EU and PWC have carried out such assessments. And the important thing is not to 'reverse' the non binding advisory referendum. Accused Owen Patterson of wanting to stop the 'honouring' of the leave vote.

The ad hominem to Owen Patterson. Ford have more confidence in this country than you have. For raising the worry about Ford moving manufacturing elsewhere. I'm so glad he came out about Redwood who did tell people to put there money elsewhere.

Pound fell just cos it was overvalued and this was a great thing. There won't be a downside. Vote was 'cos of the establishment. Who are the barking Brexiteers again? have trade deals with the 'growing part of the world'. 90%???

We'll have our democracy back, control our immigration, we'll do those trade deals with other countries. Take control of laws and borders. even though he just said there will be no hard border in NI.

On BBC, let go again without challenge. There is no credible political analysis programme at all in a country of 65million people. Unbelievable.

And breathe.

There were so many reasons I voted Remain.. and so many reasons I didn't but would have listed if I had known.

If only Brexit wasn't something important I could enjoy the outrage that Bojo & co. will feign when they flap around trying to insist trading with EU outside the SM is still "the easiest deal ever"

Many Leavers, including on MN threads, keep repeating the lies they were told by Brexiter politicians like Moggy:

the LIE that all the other countries in the world trade with the EU on WTO terms - they do NOT

We must keep correcting this lie whenever we see it
Mauritius is about the only country that trades with the EU on WTO terms

The EU has about 900 trade agreements of various types, including about 50 FTAs and hundreds of MRAs (Mutual Recognition Agreements), Agreements on Standards etc
e.g. 50-60 agreements with the USA alone, even though EU member countries voted down a full FTA in the form of TTIP

When / if the Uk Brexits, it will lose all those 900 trade arrangements and will start from Year Zero
Still no sign of the UK infrastructure to handle all this
Even Fox seems to admit cut & paste of old agreements won't work

The US, India, NZ are talking of FTAs in maybe 2030 - negotiations take that long in rl

No sign of all the new agencies to replicate all the EU agencies we are leaving - which will cost far more to replicate than our share of the current costs
Or the deal to replace Open Skies to fly civilian planes outside the UK, or to service foreign civilian planes inside the Uk (service industries again) ,
or ....

The fact that the Mail is delighted, but Leave.EU are talking about betrayals and wanting to see May ousted, suggests that everyone else is as confused as I am as to whether its a good deal or not.

The only thing I can see is that the NI issue has been shelved, for now, but don't think it will go away just like that.

Another twitter recommendation, the cheery shouty Artist Taxi Driver's take on the Mail's headline.
twitter.com/chunkymark
No offence to non London remainers, but put Sadiq Khan and Artist Taxi Driver at the front of a remain movement, and I think we could be good for a few more % points, (if anyone believes in anything as sweet and old fashioned as votes anymore).

ARTIST TAXI DRIVER‏Verified account @chunkymark
Rejoice! Theresa May is a Jellyfish
UK surrenders to the will of the EU
#MrsSoftee
ARTIST TAXI DRIVER