Westministenders: Happy Xmas (War is Over) - if only

[RedToothBrush]

When is lying not lying. When you can get enough of your mates to agree it is not lying.

And so we have David Davis, who has made two statements to parliament which deliberately contradict each other and must constitute some sort of lie to parliament at some point however you cut it.

Will the Speaker risk the wrath of his party to uphold democratic values? We watch carefully.

Davis also reveals and exposes May too though. May one way or another is complicit in Davis’s lie, either through not doing her job in reading the reports or by protecting Davis when she knew the reports did not exist. This is gross misconduct in her inability to ensure her staff do their bloody jobs. All so she can keep her own job.

This is where whistleblowers in other institutions pop up.

It has also become apparent that May has not had THE conversation with the Cabinet over what shape Brexit should take. After 18months.
Why not? Is she incapable of consensus building or is she just incompetent?

And then we have the DUP seemingly not being properly being involved in the wording of the all important document.

Vote Leave’s Oliver Norgrove is perfectly right in saying that Hard Brexit is all but dead. Don’t let that make you feel happier. Hard Brexiteers know that there only option now, is No Deal and that’s what they will try and pursue.

There is no deal until everything is settled. Right now, nothing is settled, not even what the UK want out of Brexit, never mind the EU position.

May might well have blown the only opportunity for a deal too, because of her failure over NI and the DUP. Where does she go from here? The idea that she will stand up to anyone, is ludicrous given her track record.

We might all wish we could John Lennon's song was apt when it comes to this Christmas and Brexit, it seems the war for our future post Brexit, it seems it is only just starting.

Bout, not boutique of hubris.

I quite like boutique of hubris. Sounds like the place Johnson should go when we finally get rid of him.

It's hardly their fault. They tried to behave like grown ups in coalition, but it's clear the vast majority of the UK can only handle things in a simplistic knee-jerk dog-whistle manner. Like they were the only party to have to go back on an election pledge ? Bearing in mind their minority status.

I really don't have much sympathy for the lib Dems on this. Nobody forced them to go into coalition. In fact I have yet to meet a lib dem supporter who wanted it (and I count myself here as I voted lib dem). Anyone with half a brain cell could have told them that going into a formal coalition with the Tories would only end up with them being completely screwed in the proverbial. Make a deal with the devil and your going to pay the price for it.

Um....
Can someone give me a simple, to the point synopsis of what the actual fuck is now happening re brexit?
Thanks
dives back under duvet

Thinking out loud..

I am really struggling to understand what this is all a sign of? Michel Barnier said (according to the FT) that the UK now faces the prospect of a Canada-style trade deal with the bloc.

But that means it will be primarily focused on goods not services.In 2016, financial and insurance services contributed £124.2 billion to the UK economy.

Yet banks, as we all know are setting up bases elsewhere, and the EBA is going to Paris.

I just don't get it. It seems that financial services aren't a priority because any arrangement now apparently under consideration falls far short of our current full access to the single market and passporting. I really just don't get it.

I noticed that this report was commissioned in April with the facts and figures on the contribution of financial services to the economy. That must have been commissioned for a reason?researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06193

I really don't have much sympathy for the lib Dems on this. Nobody forced them to go into coalition

Hindsight is wonderful, isn't it ?

As I recall, the underlying narrative was that after the 2010 election, it was almost unanimously agreed that the worst outcome FOR THE UK would be to either have another election immediately, or let parliament bounce around for an unspecified time and then have another election.

What I saw was the LibDems pull up their big boy trousers, and try to ensure a stable government to keep the UK going. They knew they were taking a risk, but put country before party. Obviously that's not the British way, so we now have politics where people put party before country.

And look how that's going.

One take on things, is that by ensuring the UK made it to 2015 and an orderly election, the LIbDems enabled the Tories to neutralise the electoral threat from UKIP. Because I - for one - am happy to imagine that if the 2010 parliament collapsed, and an election was forced, UKIP could have made real gains.

But it's all moot anyway. Done, fixed, and unchangeable.

Moving on, I'm starting to wonder how the privileged intend to protect their EU rights (whilst denying them to the plebs). I wonder if JRM is sneaking an application for Irish citizenship in ? Johnson already has US citizenship (we know this, as he promised to surrender it ). As always, the devil is in the detail.

mrreynolds I think this is in accordance with what everyone has said on this thread. It's a broad stroke view though: others will be able to give you details!

Seb Dance MEP‏
@SebDance
If the craziness of hard Brexit is off the table (watch the wreckers try to put it back on) we have choice of two options worse than now: Norway or Canada. Former offers no control; latter doesn’t cover services, which is most of our economy.

mrsr No. Sorry.

😣😮😡😡😡😡🤔😔

I wonder if JRM is sneaking an application for Irish citizenship in ?

Would he debase himself in such a manner? I expect his nanny would think one might as well apply for porcine citizenship.

I am really struggling to understand what this is all a sign of? Michel Barnier said (according to the FT) that the UK now faces the prospect of a Canada-style trade deal with the bloc.

It's hard to shake the feeling that it's a stopgap (whether both sides know it is debatable) or maybe a gentle prodding by the EU to see what the UK will accept. Bearing in mind when I say "UK" , I really mean "the Tory party" because that's what it's down to.

The fact that no one on this thread (which is probably one of the single most informed sites on the internet) can immediately divine the meaning of all this is possibly a hint that they're not meant too. And if it's confusing them, then it'll tie Brexiteers up in knots for days - maybe weeks. (Which could be the idea).

It's hard to know with any certainty, because globally no one gives a rats arse about Brexit (or the UK come to that). Seems there are more important things to worry about.

JRM has estimated net worth of £40m plus and annual income of about £1m - he doesn't even bother to claim his MPs salary. I very much doubt EU citizenship or lack thereof would inhibit him living or working anywhere he liked.

^I wonder if JRM is sneaking an application for Irish citizenship in ?
Would he debase himself in such a manner?^

Like Farage accepting an EU pension so his family don't suffer ?

SebDance is offering false dichotomy. The current SM in services is very far from complete. Even passporting seems to be of diminishing significance in the rhetoric. Therefore Canada plus looks more probable than Norway. Barnier does sound hopeful of some rowback on SM / CU relationship though.

From a debate elsewhere, a rabid Brexiteer (we are talking the swivel eyed loon variety) has noticed (or believes) that the proposed deal gives EU citizens in the UK more rights than an UK citizen.

>> EU nationals will have more rights in Britain than British nationals.
>
> Example ?

UK nationals don't have a de facto right to bring non-British family members into the UK (including spouses).
EU nationals will have access to a foreign court that can overturn our courts.

Is this how anyone here reads it ? If so, then I suspect the first point will be something Brexiteers will reject out of hand.

What I saw was the LibDems pull up their big boy trousers, and try to ensure a stable government to keep the UK going. They knew they were taking a risk, but put country before party. Obviously that's not the British way, so we now have politics where people put party before country.

I think we clearly looked at it from different angles. I live in a high lib dem voting area and worked in local gov so was surrounded by lib dem members at the time. Everyone I knew was devastated by the decision as they predicted the exact outcome of the lib Dems being destroyed by it. They saw it as a naked grab for power by the party leadership who put their own wish to be in Government above the needs of the party and the country. This isn't hindsight. This is conversations I had with party members at the time the coalition was announced.

But as you say...moving on...

Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
Yes, great meeting with PM @theresa_may - found her totally determined that 'full alignment' means compatibility with taking back control of our money, laws and borders.

Well well well.

Interesting state of affairs.
Most importantly, for all those who are peace-minded, the immediate risk to the GFA has been lifted. Excellent news.

Quite what the work-around will materialise in being, I have no clue. But it was on this series of threads that I first read the term 'Brexit in name only' and that certainly seems a bit more of an option than it did a week ago?

In terms of united Ireland... seeing that in the short term was never something I supported, because I think the only route to that would be resumption of the civil war.
But looking at all the census data, it's clear that in 20 years or so there will be a large Catholic majority. Whether both the north and the republic want a UI in twenty years time depends on many factors. But I believe it is ultimately inevitable, in the lifetime of my children, or their children - Ireland is a small island and the long 'border' is geographically nonsensical.

Brexit is already affecting UI public opinion on the island of Ireland, and it will continue to do so. Young people in the north - whatever the denomination they were born into- are comparing outward looking Ireland with naval-gazing UK. They're comparing the increasing liberalities of Ireland (gay marriage etc) to the lack of freedoms they themselves enjoy. They're experiencing rising sectarian tensions due to Brexit voted by for England but not their own region. They're reading discrimatory and offensive anti-Irish rhetoric from British press, and turning to RoI newspapers. They're witnessing that political leadership from Dublin is what has averted the risk to the GFA, and not usless Stormont or blundering Westminster. And even Protestant young people are applying for Irish passports. (Paisley Jr recommending that is something he will live to regret.)

'full alignment' means compatibility with taking back control of our money, laws and borders.

Erm...what? How does this even make sense?

On spouses this is the current position. The proposed protection only applies to relationships in existence prior to leaving date and lapses if the relationship dissolves prior to the spouse acquiring their own independent residency.

On EU nationals and ECJ this is not my reading (or Dominic Grieve's). UK courts will be the arbiter in almost all cases with reference to pre-leaving date EU case law. Only reference to ECJ if law is still unclear which seems unlikely.

On the radio this morning someone from the DUP said they were happy because any changes in the future had to be agreed by stormont, of which he said the DUP are the biggest party. At which I muttered "for now."

Had a dream last night that I took the kids to Dusseldorf for the weekend. We were in a cafe and the server was saying we don't want you here, you hate us Europeans and I was crying and saying not everyone wants brexit, I don't want brexit. It was the first time I'd dreamt in German for years. I think it shows that I am perhaps a bit too obsessed!

Does this echo what you're saying somerville?

Scientists for EU‏
@Scientists4EU

The Irish Bind

UK is staying inside Single Market & Customs Union til it can untie the Irish border Gordian knot.

a) If UK hacks through the knot to get hard Brexit, most NI residents wld rather join IE than stay with GB

b) UK can unbind NI-GB - also moving to united Ireland

full alignment' means compatibility with taking back control of our money, laws and borders

That's oxymoronic.

Or just moronic.

"full alignment" sounds compatible with a "regulatory equivalence" approach which is typical wording of FTAs. Not seeing the need for SM membership in this (neither is Barnier).

Under the terms of the GFA, are we obliged to take NI on?