Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

I've said it ad nauseam before, but:

INDEPENDENT CITY STATE OF LONDON!!!!

Peter Ricketts‏*@LordRickettsP*
If we concede “regulatory alignment” in Ireland, and there can be no border within the UK, then surely this dramatically curtails scope for UK free trade agreements with others like US? #Brexit

What a fucking shame.

Gina Miller‏*@thatginamiller*
Could someone wake up the politicians and tell them there are only 2 solutions to Brexit and NI border issue - stay in the Single Market & Customs Union or #Remain.

Or a Hard Border and ripping up the GFA and No Deal at all.

@SadiqKhan
Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it's possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit. Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs.

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
1. While we wait for any of the decision makers to actually go on the record, aside of the implications for Scotland today which are huge, the implications for future trade deal and cabinet politics are huge too
2. If you're not into Brexit politics this is going to sound completely mad but... May might agree today that N Ireland can basically be like Norway (high alignment model) before the cabinet has decided if the rest of the country is going to be Norway or Canada (low alignment)
3. Johnson/Gove want a looser arrangement (Canada), others want closer ties (Hammond/Rudd) - crucial thing is the cabinet hasn't yet had full discussion, let alone a decision
4. So if May (either today or next week) gives headsup that NI is going to be Norway, how can rest of UK be anything but?
5. Altho, this we are a long, long, way from a final deal and the words that oil the wheels for progress at this stage, are words, not reality - here ends mad, niche thread

I suspect that is what J-C Juncker is trying to get to the bottom of with TM, Mother, hence the rapidly backing up press schedule.

All this is at this stage though is an assurance that worst case no deal scenario NI get a special deal and there's a sea border. The rest has its own 25 million scenarios.

Motherofdragons, we don't know until May has finished her meal with Juncker, told No 10, who are going to tell a bunch of furious Tory MPs in private at 4pm. And even then, its pretty much going to be a case of getting them to back May or go for a No Deal option. And then the DUP agreeing to go along with it all.

Once again I think we are back to the land of supporting May and hoping she doesn't get booted at this moment in time. Especially if Corbyn really is up for Hard Brexit still. (This of course could all just be nothing more than for show).

I guess we know what two possibilities we will effectively be looking at: either a complete No Deal or Norway Option.

There are no other alternatives.

Remember when the Leave Campaigns were all about Norway? Why couldn't we have just done that from the start?

@henrymance
🎵 Nobody* said it was easy
No one** ever said it would be this hard 🎵

*Except the Leave campaign
**Except the Remain campaign

Sam Coates Times‏ @SamCoatesTimes
If there is any chance the “rest of the UK” is “going to be Norway” - whether by accident, implication or design - then I predict the 4pm Brexit meeting of Tory MPs will be rough

If someone could just leave the computer in the room, logged on with the web cam on, in another security breech of MP passwords, that would be most welcome.

Samuel Lowe‏*@SamuelMarcLowe*
Is this going to be a bit like Jersey being in the European Customs Union and de-facto the single market for goods despite not being in the EU? #fudge

The Jersey Option.

‏
@davidallengreen

Brexit Solution

United Kingdom of London, Scotland, Gibraltar and Northern Ireland to remain in EU.

Brexitland to leave the EU.

(Parts of Brexitland may vote over time to join the new UK in local referendums, as Overland Territories.)

Rupert Harrison‏*@rbrharrison*
To save a week of pointless commentary can we all agree that "regulatory alignment" in some key areas is not the same as staying in the single market or the customs union?

Its basically going to be months of May trying to push back because her party say she has to, and her saying "It is clear we are not staying in the customs union or single market in any way". She will try and screw over the Irish and renege on the deal - or at least be seen to try. Only for her to either face a leadership challenge and we go to No Deal Situation or wait for her to concede it all again and agree to everything the EU want or she has a successor who does this.

Nicola Sturgeon‏ @NicolaSturgeon
If it’s not some kind of Norway status for whole UK, it must mean some kind of special deal for NI. Has to be one or the other. And if latter, why not also for Scotland, London & Wales (if it wants it)?

She will try and screw over the Irish and renege on the deal

A deal that was made with the Tory party, not May personally, if memory serves.

Yep signed by Gavin Williamson LH.

More importantly, will people get their bendy bananas and light bulbs back?

Is this also the moment we start liking the DUP and the DUP deal?

(jumps the Brexit shark).

Tom Newton Dunn‏ @tnewtondunn
Theresa May ringing Arlene Foster later today to pitch deal. V angry DUP source adds: "We made it clear none of this is acceptable. We'd prefer WTO instead of this".

(((Dan Hodges)))‏ @DPJHodges
According to @tnewtondunn "Theresa May ringing Arlene Foster later today to pitch deal". I cannot believe May has seriously offered a deal to the EU without first clearing it with the DUP. That would be political insanity.

Or ineptitude.

Take your pick.

George Osborne‏
@George_Osborne
Our second edition @EveningStandard - progress in Brexit talks as UK appears to concede that Northern Ireland will keep closer to Irish/EU rules than rest of UK. Quite a win for Dublin.

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Is it? I'm more tempted to think that Ireland may have blinked, backing down on something that could - if anything - cause problems for them more than us further down the track.

come on ! Join in !!

So this is Christmas;
and what have you done ?
Another year over.
And a new one just begun.

(War is over ....)

@LeanneWood
A hard border at Holyhead would be a disaster for the Welsh economy. UK Govt is ignoring the Welsh national interest. Any special deal must be available to Wales and Scotland too. Welsh Government must fight for this.

Mayor of London‏ @MayorofLondon
Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it's possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit. Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs.

Bruno Waterfield‏*@BrunoBrussels*
She hasn’t
Text says: In absence of agreed solutions UK will ensure that there is continued regulatory alignment from those rules of internal market and customs union which, now or in the future, support North South co-operation and protection of the Good Friday agreement

Allie Renison‏*@AllieRenison*
"In absence of agreed solutions....." (remember the implicit argument from RoI was this was needed at this stage of negs to provide some minimal guarantee in the event of no-deal....?)

Aha, so that's what its all about really.