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Brexit

Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 13:11

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

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LurkingHusband · 30/11/2017 17:10

Why didn't Alan Johnson and Shami Chakribati jump up and down when the Leave bods started on about a "simple checkpoint" at the RoI/NI border?

Because laziness, and an assumption the outcome was certain led to complacency ?

And it's fair to say that for every Brexiteer who knows fuck all about how the EU works, there's an equally obstinate Remainer. However, if you are happy with the way things are (which a vore for remain sort of supposes) then there's no real need to know anything. It's one of the marvels of democracy.

pointythings · 30/11/2017 17:18

Today I am codmarking.

I'd love one of those badges, but not until I'm properly divorced - H's family are mostly loyalists, except for one lovely cousin who is an Alliance bod.

Basseting · 30/11/2017 17:21

bigly placematting.
Thanks, Red

LurkingHusband · 30/11/2017 17:23

I'd love one of those badges, but not until I'm properly divorced

I really can't do justice to the amazing performance Mark Thomas put into demonstrating his disdain for DUP politics. Suffice is to say he had to stop and get his breath back before continuing ....

LurkingHusband · 30/11/2017 17:27

Oh dear ... pesky EU limiting UK snooping

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/30/investigatory_powers_act_illegal_under_eu_law/

It's hard to argue with the (French ?) observation that the reason the sun never sets on the British Empire is because God wouldn't trust an Englishman in the dark ....

Peregrina · 30/11/2017 17:27

LH - Can this be a surprise to anyone? How can people possibly have thought that we can cherry pick EU agencies to belong to?

I think this will be a blow to the Govt. including the Eurosceptics. I think it's the one bit they did want to keep. Other stuff, like workers rights, really didn't bother them. I imagine that's why it's not been headline news, but when it becomes news it will be spun as the EU being unreasonable. I would imagine at some stage that some compromise could be worked out by paying for access and we will end up paying as much as we would have done as members.

woman11017 · 30/11/2017 17:37

Coming up:
One of the most beautiful train journeys in the world:

Westministenders: The Art of the Deal
woman11017 · 30/11/2017 17:37

Brussels

Westministenders: The Art of the Deal
woman11017 · 30/11/2017 17:38

And in the summer time in London

Westministenders: The Art of the Deal
QuentinSummers · 30/11/2017 17:57

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RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 18:17

news.sky.com/story/amp/dup-warns-government-brexit-border-issue-could-destablise-confidence-deal-11150379
DUP warns Government Brexit border issue could 'destabilise' confidence deal

Sky News has learnt the warning was made at a meeting with senior Downing Street officials on Thursday morning.

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RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 18:18

There had been speculation that Mrs May and her ministers may consider "regulatory convergence" between Northern Ireland and the Republic as a way of breaking the negotiations deadlock and progressing to trade talks.

But the DUP have made clear that they would regard such convergence as tantamount to keeping Northern Ireland within the EU customs union, thus creating a new unofficial border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

This was the only way to break the dead lock...

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RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 18:19

Stephen Bush @ stephenkb
The whole reason the DUP is successful is the answer to “they’re bluffing, aren’t they?” is always “No”.

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RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 18:27

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/91079/excl-theresa-may-faces-tory
EXCL Theresa May faces Tory grassroots backlash over draft party rulebook changes

Tory activists have warned Theresa May she could face a grassroots revolt if the party pushes ahead with proposed changes that appear to strip local associations of key powers.

Given that this is what they didn't like at the election and it lost them a lot of support...

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LurkingHusband · 30/11/2017 19:06

I suspect any engagement with Europol will have to be under ECJ oversight.

Once again, we return to the fact that the EU27 will have to be seen to be protecting the rights of their citizens. And that will mean that their ultimate backstop - the ECHR - needs to be underwritten by the UK.

Meanwhile, in Farmland ...

British meat exports to EU set to fall by 90% in 'hard Brexit' scenario, report warns

The magnitude of shock of a Hard Brexit would be "significantly greater" than the industry crisis created by the Russian food import ban 2014

A hard Brexit will have a ‘catastrophic impact’ on the European meat industry, leading to job losses and price hikes, according to a stark new report.

‘Crisis - The EU Meat Industry in a Hard Brexit Scenario’ report (www.uecbv.eu/UECBV/documents/BrexitMeatreport12373.pdf), commissioned by Europe’s meat industry body UECBV, analyses the potential impact of a hard Brexit on the European and UK meat industry.

It found that a ‘no-deal’ outcome would lead to a collapse in trade, with a 90% drop in beef exports and 53% drop in lamb exports from the UK to the EU.

In this scenario, meat products would face greater burdens than almost any other sector.

According to the report, the industry would face higher WTO tariffs than any other sector, and face additional costs of veterinary checks, in addition to the customs checks faced by all goods.

It also warns of major disruption to supply chains, and chaos for just-in-time fresh meat delivery systems.

Conservative estimates in the report put exports from the UK to the EU falling by up to 90% for beef, 56% for pigmeat and 53% for sheepmeat.

UECBV explains that it would be "very difficult" for UK suppliers to find alternative markets for these products domestically, as the UK tends to export cheaper cuts not demanded locally. This will in turn hurt British farmers and businesses, leading to job losses across the UK.

Similar reductions of meat imports from the EU will lead to shortfalls in the supply of beef, pork and sheep products, especially higher value cuts such as steak, bacon and leg of lamb.

The report warns that this will lead to "massive" price increases for British consumers on meat products, pricing traditional British meals out of reach for families.

The report finds that a hard Brexit will have a profoundly negative impact on the European meat market given the major trade flows between EU27 and UK. As the UK has a principal deficit meat market, it says the negative impacts will be felt throughout EU.

As meat-processing involves the disassembly of carcass to a myriad of consumer cuts and products, it thus has to find markets for all parts of the carcass and therefore the impact will be transmitted throughout the single market to affect all countries, even those with limited direct trade with UK.

The report warns that the magnitude of shock of a hard Brexit would be significantly greater than the industry crisis created by the Russian food import ban 2014, and it would be more difficult to find alternative markets for diverted products.

Solutions are given by the report, including a transitional period to allow businesses to adjust to new arrangements and a future trading relationship that creates minimal burden for business.

It also recommends a continued regulatory convergence between UK and EU and market support mechanisms, including increased market access, internationally simplified transit systems, and investment in port facilities.

(contd)

woman11017 · 30/11/2017 19:33

Good news.Smile

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@GrenfellMRU
Some wonderful news this morning as we are told that one of our #grenfell finger block evacuees has just given birth to a healthy baby boy!

Stunning article on Grenfell.
www.gq.com/story/grenfell-tower-fire-inside-story

RedToothBrush · 30/11/2017 19:36

Which is why Gove favoured All Ireland regulatory standards in agriculture to ensure that farming didn't fall to pieces in NI and so they might be able to progress the talks to stage two...

Except the DUP don't share Gove's feelings on this.

Other people have commented about the DUP being even more in la la la than the Tories and wonder about what the hell their vision is, given that they apparently want to ensure farming doesn't get destroyed in NI.

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GreenPurpleRed · 30/11/2017 19:36

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Butterymuffin · 30/11/2017 19:42

The deal with the DUP just looks better and better every day. Hmm

woman11017 · 30/11/2017 19:43

Ooo goodie, Gove in bare knuckle fight with DUP.

Brexiters should remember that racism isn't just for referendums, you have to live with its results, even if that includes the gruesome DUPers.

Watching footage of 1970s NI, one can't help noticing that loyalist areas look just like 'brexit britain': same flags, same thuggery, racism and idiocy.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 30/11/2017 20:08

As always thanks Red

BigChocFrenzy · 30/11/2017 20:44

Thanks, red Flowers

May should be using her secret weapon against the DUP: Corbyn

She should inform Arlene that the DUP
either
accept a deal which leaves NI with the same cross-border trade, plus the same rights to be British, as now
or
bring her down and let in PM Corbyn, who wants a United Ireland and is much friendlier with Sinn Fein than with any Unionist party.

May should use her stubbornness in the inteests of the country for once, imstead of in the interests of her party, her career, her husbands rich investor clients.

twofingerstoEverything · 30/11/2017 20:57

Thanks, Red.