Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

@EvanHD
Sorry.. bit late to this but regulatory alignment is surely transitive. If A is aligned with B, and B has to be aligned with C, then A has to be aligned with C.
Is this just a way of ensuring that Britain ends up shadowing the single market in Phase 2?

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
All in the wording.... enough specifics for Dublin to avoid egg on face, vague enough to allow DUP not to block?

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam
PM now little late for meeting across the road with Tusk -suggested to me that “lunch paused” with Juncker/Barnier - likely to be reconvened

"Excuse Michel and Jean-Claude, I have a quick phone call to make"

So, unless I am missing something, Mays plan is to try and cobble something together that Labour can/will support, and thus throw the DUP under a bus ?

I really hope she knows what she's doing. These people aren't the type to vent their spleen on Twitter, but their enemies spleens all over.

Elsewhere, French protesters briefly occupy Apples Paris showroom ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/04/apple_store_paris_protest/

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam
Worth noting - a senior DUP source told me last week that the most important thing for them is that there is no difference between GB & NI. Customs Union & Single Market not mentioned in DUP 2017 manifesto, though stopping ECJ jurisdiction is

There isn't necessarily a barrier to the Norway option here. Norway isn't subject to the ECJ, but is subject to the EFTA court.

Apologies if this has already been posted but I hadn't seen it anywhere in the UK media

British security services are vastly outgunned by the Russian counterintelligence threat

uk.businessinsider.com/british-security-services-vs-russian-counterintelligence-threat-2017-12?r=US&IR=T

MI6 has elevated Russia to "tier one" threat status.

-The head of MI6 has told NATO its response to Russian interference in Europe and the West needs to get sharper.
-Russia has at least 700,000 security and intelligence personnel on its payrolls.
-Britain has only about 16,000 equivalent people in its special security services.
-NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force is outnumbered six to one by Russian forces.

Pete North‏*@PeteNorth303*
EEA-Efta is still the best solution. It keeps the UK intact while resolving most of the NI issues. It formally takes us out of the EU while preserving the economic collaboration. It is also the best and fairest compromise.

#Brexit

Pete's happy.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy‏
@krishgm
Q : Is Norway in the EU? A : No
Q : Does Norway get most of the economic benefits of the EU? A : Yes
Q : Does Norway model solve the Irish border question? A : Yes
Q : Why don't we do that then? A : We'd have to accept free movement

Wrong. Norway is not in the Customs Union. There is a border for goods. It is in the single market which allows for less checks, but there would have to be border infrastructure.

It is interesting. The UK have always said there wouldn't be a hard border between NI and Irl. Why are people going bonkers if they do what they have to do to avoid that?

Yes, Peregrina. The great hunger.

They came later than Thatcher's great granny. She came around 1830.

www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kerry-birthplace-of-former-leaders-great-grandmother-thought-to-have-been-used-by-ira-during-troubles-228640.html

Jeez you pop out to Morrison's and it all kicks off. Dd(11) hopes this will be the downfall of brexit and the Tories. I have told her that's unlikely but then if three years ago you told me half of what is happening now I wouldn't have believed you.

The absence of wording is an assurance that in the event of no deal NI would get a special deal essentially. The key to retaining dup support is by getting them on board with making a similar deal for the rest of the UK. Or throwing them under the bus in favour of labour support.

ROI in fairness don't give a donkeys whether the UK falls apart at the end of this. They want to not put that border in and to keep the gfa intact.

This is to stop the block on sufficient progress and probably the first remotely sensible thing that's been done so far.

Sadly it doesn't mean they won't no deal the rest of us.

What really infuriates me with all this is that all of this is down to the insistence of this being done at speed, with no idea what we want at the end of this. Brexit could have been achieved with far less damage and mess if someone had gotten hold of their senses and decided on outcome before triggering the process. Or even went for a two phased approach. Or any other scenario that required some actual thinking. purposely ignores the sorting your own shit out option but staying in the eu

Report of a Juncker May statement in 10mins - 8 minutes ago. So any time now....

But is it an internal border? It is not staying in the single market or customs union. It just says in alignment.

Gavan Reilly‏ @gavreilly
There now seems to be a serious concern that the offer being put on the table by the U.K. is not acceptable to... the U.K.

All that would entail just some checks at airports and ports. Most of NI goods go through Dublin anyway.

Ireland are most certainly not looking for Norway situation. NI would have to be more than that for absence of border infrastructure.

I think I feel the need to watch Passport to Pimlico.

No Deal Today.

Official line. Just confirmed.

Let me be the first to also state that we in Manchester would like to benefit from such a deal too, in the light of our 60%+ Remain vote.

Anyway, pleased to see the DUP haven't taken long about kicking off. I'm clinging to hope that the Irish, either side of the border, might yet be able to save us.

Let me try to understand if I got this right.

TM is saying that in the absence of a deal, NI will effectively stay in the single market and CU, so as to protect the GFA if worse comes to worse.

But surely any deal that is not the single market and custom union will endanger the GFA, so does this mean that NI would stay in the SM regardless of the deal that the UK agrees with the EU27?

That would be quite a statement