Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

My worry with the £40bn payout is that the Express & Co will scream that it's money not available for the NHS. They will overlook the fact that the NHS has already been told to 'go whistle' for extra money.

I have to say, as an Irish woman, the concept of the EU protecting us against our own government has always been a plus! If it hadn't been for the EEC helping drag Ireland up and ensuring equality is at least paid lip service, we would still be in the dark ages. Up until joining in 1973, never mind equal pay, women had to give up civil service jobs once they got married.

It is immensely useful to have another body at least point the finger and say, no that is not acceptable behavior. Here's an short interview with Mary Robinson that covers a huge amount of the benefits of the EU. Obviously this is an Irish/small country perspective, but toward the end she covers human rights (she was UN human rights commissioner in one of her many roles) and gives an insight into the Irish perspective and why we have some faith that the EU will back us on the border issues.

Thanks again to all the regular posters on this thread. I think there are a lot of us out there who only contribute sporadically or not at all but keep a close eye on it and use many of the links and articles to inform ourselves and widen our sources of information.

We are still signatories to the European convention on Hunan rights - at least for now, for what it's worth.

The home office is sending letters to Romanians saying that if they want these rights then should leave for the rest of the EU in what appears to be an attempt to say we can flout the ECHR or at the very least threaten to, to make people do what we want.

The EHCR is only useful if it is valued and respected here and the EHCR can enforce its judgements.

Before a Leaver jumps in and tells me about 10 jobs opening up in a shop

There's a special thread for that, fortunately.

MyWillow I agree with the way you are looking at things. I find it depressing. I’m even wondering if it’s just me being too negative.
But fgs, when will people open their eyes to what is going in right now?

Eg why is no one talking about the fact that the Brexit bill will strip us out of the European human rights?
And why did it go into talking about animals and whether they can feel pain or not?? Does it really have any link with Brexit? And was it really something that needed looking at just now?
As a lot of people were saying, this Bill is NOT just about whatever rules we were filling in the EU and putting them into British laws. As feared, this Bill is a way to introduce A LOT of changes wo people really noticing.
And it seems that the government has plenty of time to actually look into small details around that subject. But none into the Brexit talks.

Our main issue is that there is no one really leading the opposition to Brexit. JC certainly isn’t in real opposition to it.
And we are in that position because TM managed to handle her boat very well right at the start by gagging any opposition and labelling them traitors.
For all we say that TM is useless, I think she actually quite good at doing what she wanted,which is a hard Brexit supporting a low regulation, low taxes country.
Which tbh was what DC had started to do anyway (see the nhs, benefit system etc etc).
The richer will be ok and ctually will probably still make more money.
Us, the plebs, will struggle a hell of a lot.

RagingFemininist I would be so much more positive if we had a solid number of capable, brave politicians in government and in the opposition to see us thorough these challenging times. I could even get on board with this stupid Brexit thing if there was intelligent leadership with integrity.

But there is NONE. We are in challenging times anyway what with looming AI revolution, terrorism, antibiotic resistance, potential pandemic, global warming a widening gap of mega rich and very poor and global warming. Instead of focusing on these challenges with our EU partners we are abounding a strengthening alliance and creating an abundance of new untold challenges. It is madness.

However people are not thinking about it because it hasn't hit them yet. We are still feeling safe in our middle class bubbles. And one key reason for this is that the media fails to report objectively and challenge the current political processes. As other posters have said the BBS is particularly guilty of the as it still likes to pretend to be a serious objective news service and has a large middle class audienceha bloody ha.

abandoning

Sam Coates Times‏ @samcoatestimes
Michael Gove amongst the possible replacements for Damian Green if he goes, we learn. He’s close to Gavin Barwell and wd help coral Brexiteers

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dece0f2e-cf07-11e7-a505-dffc08ac33de
No 10 lines up replacements for Damian Green

Downing Street has started discussing who could replace Damian Green. It follows claims of a widening Cabinet Office inquiry into whether he viewed pornography on a parliamentary computer and whether he made inappropriate advances to an activist.

Michael Gove is among the candidates to replace Theresa May’s de facto deputy if he resigns. Tory MPs said that Amber Rudd’s name had also been mentioned as a possible first secretary of state. Alternatively Mrs May could dispense with the role.

Green will be shuffled out, rather than forced to resign or sacked in a more dramatic fashion. Green is a key Hammond supporter. Gove is not.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cdd208d8-cf07-11e7-a505-dffc08ac33de
Brexit minister Steve Baker dragged into Vote Leave spending row

A Brexit minister has been caught up in the controversy surrounding spending by the campaign to leave the European Union because of a memo he wrote in early 2016.

Steve Baker, a leading figure in Vote Leave and now a minister in the Department for Exiting the EU, told colleagues that his organisation had found a way “to spend as much money as is necessary to win”.

The law states that only the designated main referendum campaigns could spend £7 million before the vote. Other organisations that wanted to take part would have had to register with the electoral commission and could have spent up to £700,000, providing they proved there was no controlling influence from the designated campaign

Sam Coates Times‏ @SamCoatesTimes
Here is Steve Baker letter triggering police complaint over suggestions Vote Leave want to dodge legal spend limits

This - in full - is the eyebrow raising leaked Steve Baker memo about referendum campaign spending we wrote about today. See bit in red

This story has been around for over a year. Times now taking it seriously not only reporting on it, but emphasising it.

And one key reason for this is that the media fails to report objectively and challenge the current political processes.

The middle classes take democracy and their rights for granted as they are comfortable. The media is reflecting this complacency and lack of interest.

Just to return to the idea of Britishness being a thin veneer with decreasing assets, given that governments have being busy selling of UK plc for years, did you know that the MoD has sold off the UK’s strategic fuel pipeline network that supplies aviation fuel to UK military bases and the UK civil aviation sector?

www.gov.uk/government/news/mod-sells-the-government-pipeline-and-storage-system-for-82-million

That's worrying Agnes are military defences are in a parlous state.
Good luck with martial law PM Gove, it'll be like dad's army
Unless.........

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
Hammond stuck in traffic on Whitehall

This is so 2017 politics.

Talking of Britishness. DD has been set some homework regarding culture and nationality. Dh looked at the examples of Britishness - red buses, fish and chips, football were the main themes - and said thank god for your Irish side Though I pointed out I'm a little unsure of how to do both without it looking like some mad unionist propaganda.

My dad is just back from South Africa. He says the view there is that the UK used to punch above its weight and be respected but is fast becoming a laughing stock for committing harakiri in full sight of the world and deluding itself about its past Empire glory days.

This is so 2017 politics
It can't be a coup, if X factor, Bake Off and football are still on TV.
You have to admire the semiotics.

Hammond stuck in traffic on Whitehall

We went to a gig in the next city - 14 miles away - on Monday. We left at 16:30 to arrive at 17:55. (We couldn't get there any later as their "anti-terror" measures block off the disabled parking after 18:00).

And last week a 3 mile journey (not even across town, just between two neighbouring districts) took an hour.

No accidents. No roadworks. Just everyday traffic.

Who'd bother investing in the UK, with infrastructure like that ?

Who'd bother investing in the UK, with infrastructure like that ?

And then they wonder why poor productivity seems to be such an intractable problem! When you mention that it takes a French or German worker 4 days to produce what a British worker does in 5 days, they see it as some sneaky foreign machination to do down the wonderful UK. Paranoia rules (or at least saves us having to look too closely at there the real problem lies).

@Hasenstein

That's so unpatriotic.

How dare you bring facts into a discussion about the attractiveness of the UK relative to Germany ? Or even France?

Brexit mean Brexit and we're going to make a dog's dinner of it!

£3 billion to Brexit over the next two years

"Our debt has peaked"

Sam Coates Times‏ @SamCoatesTimes
#budget: Philip Hammond puts aside £3bn on top of existing £700m for budget. A month ago - when Hammond wrote Times article - he did not want to put aside anything in the budget

Listening to Hammond talking proudly about the OBR forecasts - conveniently ignoring the fact that the growth is, and is forecast to remain, lower than the Eurozone

....maybe I'm being unfair to say he was "proud" about the growth forecasts - but he's still presenting the rest of the figures with pride

It's amazing how they can find magic money trees when they want to, isn't it?

@ Olivia

I know - I feel deeply ashamed to even mention it. It should be quite obvious to me that the rest of the world thinks so highly of Britain that they they won't let us come to any harm. We'll be able to retain all our present international influence at the top table of world organisations and may well even want to increase it because, well, we're British.