Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

frumpety It means it's not being retained.

RedToothBrush David Davis clearly knew, as did anyone who was interested, that the EMA and EBA were leaving.

However, the denials created 'noise', which permitted the continuation of this whole media obfuscation of what is happening and what is going to happen.

It is absolutely clear that we are heading for an economic - and then a social - disaster, frankly.

There can be no meaningful 'deal' within the timeframe left and the limitations the government have imposed.

This is obvious now.

However, the repeated denials of this permit the creation of a kind of suspension of disbelief. The media are acting as though we are watching a magic show - can DD pull the rabbit out of the hat? can he escape from the locked box? - rather than a serious political and economic negotiation, with huge economic ramifications (and implications for the social fabric of the country).

The 'noise' allows an illusion that there are still a variety of options available, possibilities for a positive outcome. It permits 'haziness' - a haziness that allows people to carry on with magical thinking and wishful thinking - or to just ignore the reality unfolding right in front of their eyes.

I absolutely agree with you, BigChoc, about the serious impediments to serious, adult reporting of this situation.

However, I continue to find it utterly incredible.

The government is holding a series of meetings with various business sectors. The aim of those meetings is to reassure businesses. The results of those meetings are not reassuring. It is becoming clear to anyone attending those meetings that Brexit is being pushed through with nothing to replace the single market or customs union and with no real understanding of the impact of restricting immigration. It is also becoming clear that a deal is unlikely . Moreover deals with other countries are not happening.

There is no rabbit. There is no escape from the locked box.

This should be something that is discussed in clear terms, in mainstream, authoritative media, accessibly, for all.

After the Referendum Summer of Madness, where people seemed to collectively lose their reason, there needs to be a massive drive towards rational adulthood, where people are informed, lies are dismissed, and people are forced to take responsibility and ownership of decisions that are going to have massive real-life consequences.

So does that mean that we are just left with the Human rights act ?

Good news though the Government are going to publish a detailed memorandum within two weeks outlining how key articles from the EU charter will be reflected in UK law , or so says Dominic Raab . Lets hope our MSM keep at him on that one , clocks ticking , two weeks , tick tock

Other Brexshit news ... Airbus CEO says wing building in Wales to move to China post cliff edge.

Taking back control. Winning.

airbus wings

Olivia All these things need to be listed somewhere - somewhere more available than this thread - so that people can see what is happening.

It's obvious to us - we're a small minority of obsessives!

But there is no mainstream, focussed collation of what is actually, really happening.

Businesses are, right now, pulling out of the UK. That is because the UK is heading for a Mess Brexit.

Because there is no mainstream media collation and analysis, people are blindly standing on an escalator to an economic disaster.

I know I keep banging away about this but I find it incredible. It is as though the Referendum Madness - the whole propaganda about people regarding any fact-giver as a 'member of an elite', who must therefore be reacted against - has utterly spooked the media. Personally, I think that madness has (somewhat) abated. I suspect it couldn't be sustained over the long-term - and not without significant wads of cash and a limited arena for the deployment of that cash - and has subsided a good bit. My suspicion is that people are, now, more amenable to the truth.

But mainstream media is still pulling punches with its first and foremost duty, which is to inform.

Website Brexshit compendium?

Red It is gut gut wrenching.

Labour and the lib dems were notably flaccid during the miners strike and poll tax. But this feels different.

As Peregrina said a while back, she'd believe a tory rebellion when she saw it. I didn't trust Grieve. And death threats tend to help people come to decisions.

Here's a piece on the decimation of net neutrality in US:
medium.com/@AGSchneiderman/an-open-letter-to-the-fcc-b867a763850a
have a feeling we'll look back on the corrupted leave campaign and vicious trolling as quite quaint and analogue in years to come.

Despite tory and labour pandering to fascists, they're still not happy. One can never please that type.
leave.eu/40bn-payout-confirmed-may-prostitutes-british-pride/?mc_cid=edbe5d110a&mc_eid=748782d62a

we're a small minority of obsessives
Women. cat
Mrs. Lintott: History is a commentary on the various and continuing incapabilities of men. What is history? History is women following behind with the bucket.
www.imdb.com/title/tt0464049/quotes

Can we crowdfund to set up a website that compiles all this information? It would need staff to keep live and fresh.

We could advertise via Google and Facebook.

I suppose that would work.

John Lewis BQ

Jeremy Cliffe
@JeremyCliffe
I hear there's movement in SPD on possibility of a grand coalition. Schulz under pressure to revisit his opposition, esp from MPs worried party doesn't have money to fight new election & could lose seats.

oliviaD68

This might interest you, though it doesn’t appear to have a huge presence

BrexitRecord
@BrexitRecord
Monitoring the economic impact of Brexit. Founded by @HenryCPorter. Email us stories at brexitrecord@gmail.com

www.brexitrecord.com

PainintheEar Thank you.

Now, why isn't that a section at the end of the nightly news?

That's where it needs to be.

Brexit is as significant as a war, frankly. It's the biggest change to the economy and social fabric of the country we've seen for a generation. It's huge.

It needs to be discussed with a level of seriousness, and analysis, that would be applied to a war.

This lack of serious, analytical, mainstream coverage is such a huge, gaping absence that it is almost impossible to see.

It should not - absolutely not - be covered in such a non-mainstream way. That lack of coverage in the mainstream, in a serious, analytical (rather than in puff pieces from some latest PR release) is a massive strategy of delegitimisation.

woman That is so true about history, women, and the bucket. I'm genuinely, really fed up with it.

@PainInTheEar

That's it. He needs a google ads and Facebook campaign. I'll ask if he's crowdfunding or paying himself

I carry my bucket with pride, cat

One of the final bits in the failing narrative is the @50 legal challenge.
Even if they do get a ruling that @50 was triggered illegally, without the alleged political will behind it, it will be worthless.

Power trumps legal process.

Which other country has the judiciary, press and opposition politicians in real and imminent physical danger from the executive and its goons?

cat a small army of obsessives.
It's difficult to know how many of us read this thread, isn't it? I've been obsessively following since the first thread, and have learnt so much from knowledgeable posters.
I'm willing to bet there are actually quite a lot of us.

This lack of serious, analytical, mainstream coverage is such a huge, gaping absence that it is almost impossible to see.

I agree many matters including our EU departure should not - absolutely not - be covered in such a non-mainstream way.

But the lack of coverage in the mainstream of most important issues is mostly down to the digital age.

In a short space of time we have become so used to brief twitter sound bites that it has allowed Trump to triumph and the EU exit to happen. Today the right ( or wrong) jingoistic tweets or letters on the side of a bus carry immense power.

It’s easy to put conspiracy theories behind it, but really it’s digital evolution. Some groups have been better at adapting and exploiting this than others.

No wonder long wordy experts and analysis are eschewed when 40 character sound bites are the norm.

Sorry 140 characters but you get the point.

We are still signatories to the European convention on Hunan rights - at least for now, for what it's worth. Not a lot at the moment, as the British representative is aligned closely to the British government, and the ECHR gives the uk an especially wide 'margin of appreciation' (ie freedom to do what we want) - possibly as a reaction to May's outrageous threats to withdraw us from the convention. However our membership is still critically important if things become more extreme here.

(It says something about us that we have a PM who has actively campaigned to withdraw from the European convention on human rights. How did we get here?)

I'm reading historian Timothy Snyder's 'On Tyranny - 20 lessons from the 20th century', a short monograph he put together after Trump won office. I recommend it to all of you.

I agree with woman.
I can see it now that the legal case wins but the government just throws out another short bill with a retrospective parliamentary decision confirming the referendum decision as a parliamentary decision.

@Figmentofmyimagination

I agree with you. Thx for pointing this out.

But do you realise what you're saying???

We need the EU to protect us against our own government.

Let that sink in.

thecat excellent posts!

Airbus CEO says wing building in Wales to move to China post cliff edge.

To be fair, it's not definite yet, but is on the cards.
Before a Leaver jumps in and tells me about 10 jobs opening up in a shop, I grew up in the area, and can tell you that the industry was in decline there long before we went into the EEC/EU. Why the people in the area voted for Brexit is absolutely beyond me - memories of how little good quality work there was must still be fresh. I suppose they believed Gove and Johnson who said nothing would change, and that they would have their cake and eat it.

www.wealthx.com/report/the-global-property-handbook-collaboration-warburg-realty-barnes-international-realty/

This is a website aiding global wealthy people to become more wealthy and powerful globally:

Wealth-X solutions enhance targeting and prospecting strategy to help our clients better understand, connect, and do business with the wealthy. We take a holistic view of the client and donor lifecycle. Our products and services are designed to support you throughout your development strategy – from inception to deployment and ongoing engagement.

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And, our national debt is at a record high:

Mainstream media headlines today are focused on Britain's record national debt, which just surpassed £1 trillion, a figure that can only exponentially increase unless the entire mechanism of Government finance is overhauled. The truth however is much worse, factoring in all liabilities including state and public sector pensions, the real national debt is closer to £4.8 trillion, some £78,000 for every person in the UK.
www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk

The population is being sold a big fat lie by the Daily Mail, Sun and rightwing Tories. They feed and perpetuate this myth of Britishness distracting from the fact that as we (the British nation) have already sold off or had to give back our assets (many of which were stolen during the British Empire) there is no power and self determination.
Much of the UK is already in in the hands of global foreign investors either in terms of arms trade generating revenue or in terms of assets bought by Russian, Asian, US and middle eastern individuals and organisations. We have no real power left either her or abroad. This worrying fact is being glossed over by pretending that our precious 'Britsihness' is going to make us a great trading nation once again.

Britishness was once upon a time recognised around the world as a power to be reckoned with and even a culture to aspire to (for better of for worse). Today however in 2017 we as a nation don't hold much power because we have decreasing assets, no future proof indigenous industries and a scary national Debt of over £1 Trillion.

The rebirth of British patriotism nationalism as sold by the gutter press and Conservative party during the last decade or so is an illusion a magic trick.

All present political parties have behaved in pretty useless and thuggish ways during the last 18 months or so, we have no intelligent, brave, capable and fair leadership. Our democratic political system is being completely undermined by Brexit whilst it is ironically being claimed that the referendum and the will of the people is a reclaiming of participatory democracy.

I am not explaining this very well but in a nutshell:

as the myth of 'Britishness' is being stoked, we have already, as a nation, lost everything that may have once been strong, powerful and commendable, it's a game of pretend (which the British are very good at).

Exploiting this myth of 'Britishness' we are now in the process of loosing our last remaining bit of national strength, power and global influence, it's basically all gone (as my toddler would have once said).

Many of us are still living in a safe bubble enjoying our mortgaged homes, leafy gardens seasonal updates of our wardrobes, annual holidays, and access to the NHS and education. We imagine that the police and rule of law keep us safe whilst all of this is disintegrating as we speak if it hasn't already.

There is only a thinning layer of gold plating left now covering the corroding framework of British society as we have known it.

Brexit, I fear, will be the final nail in the coffin.