Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

@woman11017

But isn't the UK's productivity problem the EU's fault? And Germany's too?

I mean they must be responsible somehow.

Thank goodness we are leaving because I don't want to associated with economies that are so much more productive than ours and an outfit like the EU which has blocked us from addressing low labour productivity improvement.

Just trying out my Brexshitter lingo ...

@sturdyAlex
BUDGET REACTION: "We are now living a reality in which the chancellor has to commit £3bn worth of extra funds to Brexit planning and only £2.8bn extra to an NHS in crisis. Stick that on the side of a bus.

Labour don't deserve 38% atm, despite great MPs like Creasy and Lammy. Brexit's not the only thing they've f**ed up this week.

exactly Olivia

Our Leaver friends on their good news thread are a bit quiet. Maybe £3bn extra for Brexit isn't good news?

Well
Fucks sake

George Magnus neatly forgetting that revision to productivity forecasting is based on significant growth undershoot for the last 10 years. ie nothing to do with Brexit.

Additionally GDP per capita is positive in each of the OBR forecast years. This is an improvement on pre Brexit DC / GO period.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/5-charts-that-show-the-uk-economy-is-in-the-middle-of-a-lost-decade-a6952861.html

@howabout

George Magnus says there is no Brexit impact built in Yet. Why do you think he does?

Today, the OBR (thank heavens we have it) has reminded us that we face a bleaker economic future. In terms of income per head, its a virtual standstill, and of course no real Brexit impact as yet, or any allowance for the inevitable recession at some point

Additionally GDP per capita is positive in each of the OBR forecast years.

The OBR forecast doesn't really include any Brexit impact, because they asked the government for more details of their Brexit policy and were given ... the Florence speech.

Not much makes me want to stick around britain atm, but your posts do MrsR

😁
Ditto woman

Sam Coates Times retweeted:

Torsten Bell‏*@TorstenBell*
The stamp duty cut costs over £900,000 for each additional first time buyer... It would be much cheaper to literally build them a house each.

Meanwhile, from the Minister of State for Digital and Culture

While we have been justifiably concerned about the Northern Irish/Irish border on these threads, we've taken our eyes off the ball on the other insoluble border problem . Gibraltar heading for abrupt exit from single market says Spain

There had been no proposals from either the British government or the government of Gibraltar on the future of the territory, over which Spain has a longstanding territorial claim, the source added.

Spain believes Gibraltar will now fall out of the single market on 29 March 2019. Gibraltar’s prime minister, Fabian Picardo, has previously suggested that a hard Brexit would pose an “existential threat”.

...The Spanish government source said Britain had consistently misinterpreted Spain’s position. “It is amazing how the British misread us,” the source said. “Almost as if we speak a different language. They come to us, we say: ‘We will see what we can do.’ But it means nothing.”

@lalalonglegs

Now if the Brexshit mullahs don't care about NI, do you think they'll spend a nanosecond on Gibraltar?

That will either have a hard border or be handed over to Spain.

Mother, I don't know the number of first time buyers every year, but perhaps this theoretical will make it easier to explain.

Say every year there are X number of first time buyers.

This change is predicted to make this X number + the extra 3500 first time buyers.

In order to benefit these extra 3500 households the treasury loses the income from all the other first time buyers who would have bought regardless of the change.

That works out at £900,000 per extra first time buyer who manages to get on the housing ladder as a direct result of the change.

If you want to put it another way, an alternative policy to the stamp duty change would have been to announce they were building 21,000 homes at the cost of £150,000 or offer 21,000 essential key workers a win fall of £150,000 towards the cost of a house. And when you put it like that, the change to the stamp duty policy looks even more daft.

Lucy Fisher‏ @LOS_Fisher
KLAXON: Tory Brexiteers concerned after spotting Treasury assumption that UK will continue to pay £3.5 billion "own resources" to EU in 2022/23 (i.e. after two-year transition has ended)...

In EU lingo, "own resources" means (mainly) customs duties paid into EU budget. 1/2

Pro-Leave Tory MPs asking if this implies a long term commitment to the EU budget or remaining in the customs union. 2/2

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
This is a great spot - red book seems to suggest we'll be paying more than 3 billion every year to EU after Brexit and after transition, Treasury haven't yet answered the q as to what its for

Sam Coates Times‏ @SamCoatesTimes
Treasury telling brexiteers that this is just an OBR assumption and therefore "academic". At the moment, brexiteers seem minded to believe this

And then

Sam Coates Times‏ @SamCoatesTimes
Think Liz Truss just made the issue around the £3.5 EU spend in 2022, which is baffling and upsetting brexiteers, a bit worse.

(I'm not sure what Liz Truss has said yet).

According to here opendatacommunities.org/slice?dataset=http%3A%2F%2Fopendatacommunities.org%2Fdata%2Fhousing-market%2Fmortgages%2Frolling-total&http%3A%2F%2Fopendatacommunities.org%2Fdef%2Fontology%2Ftime%2FrefPeriod=http%3A%2F%2Freference.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fquarter%2F2016-Q4 there are around 300,000 first time buyers in England per year. So I come up with about about £170k per extra buyer, but I might have got the sums wrong. It doesn’t substantially change the basic point, even if I am right.

This is classic Tory thinking. The only 'gift' they can think of is a tax break, based on the assumption that taxes disappear into a black hole and are never used for a useful purpose. It makes next to no difference to individuals, particularly poorer individuals who were never in a position to pay the tax in the first place. Another good example is raising the personal allowance. Someone who earns less than that annually gets no benefit. People on 50k+ get a £400 gift per £1000 raise of the threshold.

And when you put it like that, the change to the stamp duty policy looks even more daft^

Ed Milliband daft, it was labour policy, to the £.

@bioinformagic
In order to get 3,500 more folk onto the property ladder it is costing the country nearly 1 million each. That cost is spread overall tax payers, those that benefit from it are a relatively small number. Again it is the poor subsidising the middle class.

Olivia just reread Magnus' comments and you are correct. I was doing him a disservice. He is careful not to explicitly link to Brexit but the implication slight of hand is there nonetheless. The original point that OBR productivity downgrade is not Brexit related stands.

The stamp duty cut costs over £900,000 for each additional first time buyer... It would be much cheaper to literally build them a house each.

See also: "quantitive easing" - when it would have been cheaper, simpler, and more effective to gift everyone in the UK £10,000 each.

I have huge respect for Torsten so I will now need to try and get my head round stamp duty cut.

No effect in Scotland as devolved matter and most first time purchasers below the stamp duty threshold anyway.

@howabout

If you ask me however Brexit is already showing up in these numbers. So George should be saying Brexit is having an impact even if we haven't yet left and we still don't know what it will look like.

Uncertainty is weighing heavily on private investment and consumer expenditure - the latter inflation driven.

Both are large components of GDP.

@JolyonMaugham
The OBR has been over-optimistic 17 times in a row about productivity growth. Remember all the Brexiters getting stuck into it for its gloom?
So a possibly still over-optimistic downgrade with further to come when the government gets round to deciding on some sort of brexit policy.

As someone said, that's not sunlight you can see on the uplands, it's a bin fire.

It would be interesting to see how actual EU (and Rest of World) growth has historically matched protections - especially since the UK is now slipping even further behind the EU on actual growth (over a full percentage point now! )