Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

Christmas cards to MPs from Brexiteers

mobile.twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

This is a good article on the Murray amendment here

It's not quite as simple as evil, rightist, Centrists and the old bogeyman of Progress . The idea of the amendment was to force the government to remain in the customs union. Though, as a previous poster suggested, had that not worked (and, I have to say, there seems precious little to suggest our current government would have taken the route of remaining in the customs union) we would, indeed, have been left wide open to no tariffs, etc.

I have to say, I feel very, very bleak tonight.

The government is dead set on leaving the single market, leaving the customs union, no free movement. We've lost passporting for the banks, Goldman Sachs are setting up HQs elsewhere (and I think they are simply the first of the exodus), EMA, EBA ... I think we really are, genuinely, facing the absolute worst case of all the pre-Brexit predictions - and then probably some more on top.

There is simply no glimmer of rationality triumphing over a quite irrational intransigence. This is a peace-time disaster.

@KerryMP
Dominic Grieve says he won’t push his amendment 10 to the vote after Govt “concession”. Ken Clarke says he’s being fobbed off and he’ll move it instead.

quite irrational intransigence.
I've got a feeling that for a lot of journalists and politicians, preserving their own personal safety is all too rational. Someone's leaning on a lot of people at the moment.

@chrishanretty
It's now impossible to call a general election in 2017 (1/5)

Remember too: The Most Favoured Nation issue is also why the EU can't offer the UK a special deal - even if they wanted too

All their FTAs with other countries include MFN (that's usual in all FTAs, not just EU ones)
so all those MFN countries would have to be given the same special terms as the UK, if they were better than those in their own original FTAs

e.g. the EU would have to give the same terms to S Korea, China, Japan and soon India (their FTA with the EU should be completed soon, now the UK can't object to visas) and 30-40 other countries

That would destroy EU industry, if all those manufacturing countries, many with cheaper Labour, had the "frictionless" access to the Single Market that May wants.
The worst Brexit no-deal scenario, losing all Uk trade, is very minor compared to that

Not sure where the slumbering Irish American giant stands with Trump at the helm, sadly. Trump and his cronies have too much to gain from Brexit and too little to gain from doing favours to the Irish vote.

I note as usual the DUP statements directed at the Irish government consist of scolding on the general theme of how the Irish should know their place.

I suspect that Arlene Foster has given Theresa May an ultimatum on the question of NI being completely on a par with the rest of the UK when it comes to Brexit - no single market membership, etc, for NI and no lip service to the concept of an all island economy or all island health services or agriculture. I suspect that Foster will support a hard Brexit in return for enough money for NI to make up for the economic hit that marching in lockstep over the cliff edge with Britain will entail.

The DUP are perfectly happy to see the end of the NI Assembly, and even a return to sectarian violence and troops on the streets and on border checkpoints. I anticipate that May's government will unilaterally repudiate the GFA therefore. It is the only way that NI can leave the EU.

Normally, ignoring the Irish-American vote would be fatal for a US politician who isn't just a local pol.
Even though the alt right does seem to encompass DUP types, I'd still expect the Irish lobby to remain powerful - Republicans woo them too.

RoI govts have proved very adept in the past at hammering Britain in the PR stakes

• remember all those decades when even Anglophile US politicians would ensure they were not photographed with whoever was the NI Secretary of State ?

Trump at the Sinn Fein fundraiser, while the IRA were bombing London, indicates he personally has no problem with even the IRA
and he leapt at the chance to host the RoI leader at the WH, last St Pat's Day

He has no scruples or loyalty.
If he thinks supporting the RoI would bring him more support, his old love for Theresa will be flushed down the toilet

His Trade Secretary - who is also very hostile to the EU - is talking of up to 10 years to negotiate an FTA with the UK
Trump and his chosen Cabinet prioritise profit - that's their only Special Relationship

@DavidLammy
For shame

@HouseofCommons
The House of Commons has voted against Amendment 46 to the #EUWithdrawalBill by 311 to 301.
This amendment would have removed the exclusion of the Charter of Fundamental Rights from retained EU law.

Oh good.

Who needs human rights?

And who says animals are sentient?

The UK feels like Trump is running it.

Or maybe Papi Putin.

What creeps me out is Labour, Channel 4 journalist, journalists in general submitting silently. Something's wrong.

Yes.

Some are too thick to see the coming disaster
Some will profit greatly from it
The rest are terrified of being blamed for it.

Some are terrified of being targeted, both politicians and journalists - look what happens to those who do not fall into line with Brexit
The hate media are ratcheting up, disgraceful Fail, Express, Torygraph
Barely disguised threats from Leave.EU, Arron Banks and the Russian Embassy lurking in support ....

A few Uk journalists are prepared to take the risk of doing their job properly
Most are too lazy to be bothered
Many are hamstrung by their owners, if they want to keep their jobs

Uk business is terrified of being crucified by the media for treason and of the govt excluding them from contracts
Foreign-based businesses are busy preparing to cut out the UK from their supply chains

In case you were naughty enough not to believe DD's proclamations...

Remember, even in April, DD and his DexEU were still denying that London would lose the EMA and the EBA before Brexit, if ever:

https://www.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16
*
“No decisions have been taken about the location of the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency,”*

a UK Brexit department spokesman said,
“these will be subject to the exit negotiations.”

< I wonder if he's noticed yet that they are gone ! >

Another leave claim gone. We will not lose any rights. Which rights enshrined in the European Charter of Fundamental Rights do they feel are not fundamental?

Disgusted.

Biggest low so far for me.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/seriously-northern-ireland-says-eu-20171121139491

In case you missed it ......
#CruelBastardsUK

EU withdrawl bill: MPs vote 'that animals cannot feel pain or emotions'
This would overturn EU law incorporated in 2009 via the Lisbon Treaty

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/mps-just-voted-that-animals-cannot-feel-pain-or-emotions-a3696641.html

Not much hope for non-sentient, no-emotional creatures like this unit of production:

withdrawal Aargh, night all

Trump is going for ending net neutrality. Important and has ramifications to the UK too.

Bye bye freedom.

Where the PR stakes are concerned, large swathes of the GOP would look down their nose at an Irish PM who is half Indian and gay, though his politics would in the normal course of events appeal to the GOP faithful of the Mitt Romney type. Normal is over now, and Nigel Farage seems to be quite the darling of the Trump crowd.

Trump could play games with Westminster over NI and Brexit just for the fun of watching people squirm, if he felt like it. But I suspect he has his eyes on several potential golf links sites in NI.

There is more to the GOP than those who would vote for Roy Moore, but I fear that the current administration is only concerned with creating and exploiting situations that they can make money on. Brexit is making them salivate.

A kleptocracy has taken over government and the White House. The GOP are trying to rush their legislative agenda through before November 2018 when they are likely to be routed (fingers crossed tightly) in the Midterms. The normal rules of politics do not apply any more.

Peter King is the de facto voice of Irish America in the GOP, and has turned out to be a Trump opponent on the tax bill but tends overall to support him projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/peter-t-king/.

Gerry Adams and a few other Irish politicians need to embark on a media tour, and the government needs to be working its fingers to the bone trying to influence whoever lends an ear. It will be an uphill struggle for Ireland to make a case for the EU, which is not seen positively by the socially conservative right or the vulture capitalists.

^Trump at the Sinn Fein fundraiser, while the IRA were bombing London, indicates he personally has no problem with even the IRA
and he leapt at the chance to host the RoI leader at the WH, last St Pat's Day^

I wouldn't take any past sentiment or action of Trump's as an indication of future decisions, though I suspect he knows he will dictate terms to the UK when the time comes. He is vain enough to like the thought of popularity in Ireland and among the Irish in America, but unless the Irish are a swing vote somewhere I doubt he has NI on his radar at all.

He probably only went to the Adams fundraiser in hopes of impressing some Irish pol on the NYC zoning board. Everything Trump does is self-serving.

If nothing else, the UN/ judge incident posted by PattyPenguin illustrates the perils of leaving hostages to fortune, and I suspect this is just a foretaste of things to come.

The UK gradually realising it can't afford to piss anyone off but can't shake the habit of pissing off Ireland quite yet.

@HouseofCommons
The House of Commons has voted against Amendment 46 to the #EUWithdrawalBill by 311 to 301.
This amendment would have removed the exclusion of the Charter of Fundamental Rights from retained EU law

Feel like I am being awfully dim , but does the above mean the Charter of Fundamental Rights is being retained or not ?

When they retain the Acquis of EU laws, the Charter will not be included. It will be gone.

It will be like someone who doesn't like raisins in their spotted dick. They will pick them all out and chuck them away. Acquis without the bits gov't don't like.

The Amendment would have stopped gov't chucking away the Charter, had it passed.

Thanks Party , that really is shocking , didn't hear a peep about it on BBC business news this morning , possibly as it is old news now , or maybe I missed it chasing next doors cat around the house !