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Brexit

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/11/2017 13:56

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

  1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
  2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
  3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
  4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
  5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
  6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
  7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
  8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
  9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
  10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
  11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
  12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
  13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:17

@Melassa

True! Brexit is a success!!

I stand corrected!!

Mightybanhammer · 20/11/2017 19:17

Yes I noticed that too Bigchoc - tho remain intrigued about JDD ( much earlier conversation on this thread),

BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:19

And of course many countries with FTAs with the EU (27 / 28 countries) will want to renegotiate terms with the UK
e.g. India, China want more visas for their people to come to the UK

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:26

@BigChocFrenzy

Wasn't it a Brexiteer claim that the agreements would just be rolled over? I believe the esteemed Caroline showed us tweets from a former employee of DIT and Liam Fox said so (then changed his story in front of Parliamentary committee).

Fox first story

BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:26

Hammer JDD is a senior civil servant, about 2nd secretary level, well known to R North ( i.e. not a fantasy poster)
I trust when he posts facts about trade etc, or actions that have actually happened, e.g. briefing ministers or printing ration books.

But like with R North, his predictions of what politicians will do next are apocalyptic and at least some of that imo stems from horror at the dog's Brexshit the govt is making, injured pride at the damage Brexit is doing.
They both sound horribly stressed & depressed.

Mightybanhammer · 20/11/2017 19:27

May I offer an alternative to the jerry builders analogy?

This whole unfolding catastrophe reminds me very much of the successive diplomatic failures which led to the outbreak of World War One.

At many junctures, crisis could have been averted but was not. Vested interests, ignorance and so on played a part, but above all catastrophe was slowly allowed to happen as many thought , in the same child like way of today, that IF the consequences were really so grim as some ( lily livered traitors ) claimed , THEY surely would not allow IT ( declaration of war) to happen.

It happened.

Peregrina · 20/11/2017 19:29

we have saved 42 jobs in an ice skating rink in Essex ... I think they were new jobs, which have much more prestige that a boring old medicines agency.

And of course, there was the moan about why can't the EMA remain in London. It is of course, absolutely, blindingly obvious, what we must do - the UK must get Fox and Co to pitch for the FDA to relocate to London. The Brexiteers assured us that countries would be rushing to do business with us.

Mightybanhammer · 20/11/2017 19:30

bigchoc I know but find it hard to square it with civil service code, or the comment he has been authorised to post. Odd.

Mightybanhammer · 20/11/2017 19:32

Or the comment that he was authorised ...

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:33

FDA in London. Sensible yes. Federal Reserve too right?

Other agencies we will be leaving. Not all will be leaving us.

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again.  A Big Battle Looms.
BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:33

Yes, Fox & co initially said they'd make new trade deals during the A50 process - that's legally impossible.
Then it moved to rolling over trade deals - still impossible to sign in advance
Now afaik, they claim they are negotiating grandfathering to become active on Brexit day - so far maybe Singapore will agree.

Unless the deal is EEA/EFTA, there will be a gap of several years where the UK is without any trade deals with anyone
during which the UK govt will desperately try to negotiate trade deals with countries who will see the UK economy tanking, so know they have the whip hand
Remembering too that the UK has so few trade negotiators that it would be pushed to negotiate 2 deals on parallel, never mind the 40 odd FTAs it shares now as part of the EU, or the 850 other trade arrangements, mutual recognition standards etc.

RedToothBrush · 20/11/2017 19:36

Well...

Who else is hoping to god that Peston is right about this?
News just in:

www.itv.com/news/2017-11-20/big-government-shift-on-divorce-bill-to-40bn-and-future-role-of-european-court-of-justice/
Big government shift on divorce bill to £40bn and future role of European Court of Justice

The biggest hitters in the government have this afternoon moved a long way towards giving Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk what they say they want and need in order to move Brexit talks on to the crucial next phase of discussing a so-called transition arrangement and a trade deal.

The European Union Exit and Trade (Strategy and Negotiations) sub-committee, chaired by the prime minister, made two fairly dramatic decisions.

I am told ministers agreed that the European Court of Justice could after all have a continuing role in making sure the rights are protected of three million EU citizens living in Britain.

Barnier and Tusk will be relieved. The Brexiteering ultras in the Tory party will feel betrayed.

Second, ministers gave the Brexit minister David Davis permission to indicate to Barnier that the UK would double to circa £40bn what it is prepared to hand over as a divorce payment.

Again this will be seen as important progress by Tusk and Barnier.

But many Tory MPs will be worried that the offer may not have enough strings attached - that is they don’t want to promise hard cash in the absence of knowing what kind of trade deal is actually available.

So here is the thing. A consensus seems to have broken out in the senior echelons of the cabinet, including the Goves, Foxes and Johnsons, that Davis and May must be given enough negotiating ammunition to avoid the hardest of Brexits.

That will ease the relationship with the rest of the EU at this crucial juncture for talks. But it may complicate their relationship with many of their own MPs.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:36

mighty I suspect JDD is being used either by the heads of the civil service, or by a govt minister, to leak certain info
From previous posts, we know he is financially independent, which avoids the biggest constraint - endangering job or pension
He's MUCH quieter, v occasional now, after being interviewed - and released without charge - by the police

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:37

Other than the 42 ice skating rink jobs in Essex ...

Is there anything - anything - good about Brexit that someone can objectively point to? Blue passport and bendy banana jokers pls abstain.

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:39

This £40billion payment ...

Was it on the big red bus?

RedToothBrush · 20/11/2017 19:40

Kevin Schofield‏ @PolhomeEditor
Downing St source on Brexit sub-committee meeting: “It remains our position that nothing’s agreed until everything’s agreed. As the PM said, the UK and the EU should step forward together.” ie “we’re upping our offer to £40bn, but want trade talks in return”.

Ooooooooh.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:42

red Those 2 issues - the bill and expats rights - were always easily solvable imo, if the govt wanted a deal.
The remaining issue of the 3 prerequisites is the big roadblock: NI border

May mist be kicking her own arse black & blue for committing the govt to leaving the SM and CU, before - I suspect - she or her ministers had a clue as to the implications for the NI prerequisite.

Shameful ignorance
Shameful disregard for NI and expectation that the RoI will do as the UK commands
Now she'll have to woman up and ensure NI at least remains within the CU, to avoid a hard border
Otherwise, no trade talks

Peregrina · 20/11/2017 19:43

It's a sad day. Even if Brexit were to be cancelled, those agencies will be gone. If they sort out something on Aviation and that is a big if, then it's perfectly possible to do a weekly commute to Amsterdam and Paris. I used to go over to Amsterdam regularly when DD lived there a few years ago. I'd take a mid afternoon Friday flight, which got into Schipol at about 16:30 - there were always massive queues of people waiting to catch its return. Where will the EMA be? There are a number of business parks near Schipol, which would make the commute much easier.

Stupid, stupid, stupid. When will someone wake up and shout that the Emperor has no clothes (mixed metaphor, sorry)? When will May tell the hard-line Brexiters where to get off?

RedToothBrush · 20/11/2017 19:49

Has anyone done an app where you can write your own slogan on a bus, and then create a photo to post on the internet with it?

If not, why not?

OP posts:
OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:50

@BigChocFrenzy

It's more than just CU ... NI needs SM membership too.

How do you then create a border between NI and GB ...? I suppose it COULD happen. There are precedents elsewhere but it seems Chief Dotard Davis has ruled this out.

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:52

@RedToothBrush

What is going to happen when the govt realises the next phase is actually not about trade talks ...? But about a framework and a transition arrangement ...?

BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:53

Brexit v low priority for Merkel
Will this finally end the Brexiters' certainty that she'll ride to the rescue and pull a trade deal out of her handbag, because of cars .....

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/20/germany-political-crisis-angela-merkel-brexit-solution

A senior German official recently told me that Brexit was about the eighth or ninth issue on Merkel’s to-do list in foreign affairs, never mind the domestic politics that are any leader’s inevitable priority.

As an illustration, the issues that matter in the talks that have just failed were:
first, migration policy; second, the future of coal; and third, financial transfers from the regions of the former West Germany to those of the former East Germany.

OliviaD68 · 20/11/2017 19:56

Flashback to April 2017 - FT Whoops.

London battles to keep hold of two main EU agencies

David Davis claims medicine and banking bodies will not have to leave Canary Wharf

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Britain is fighting to remain the home of two of the EU’s most prestigious agencies covering medicines and banking after Brexit, in a move that is likely to cause astonishment in European capitals.

David Davis, Brexit secretary, does not accept that the two agencies and roughly 1,000 staff will have to move from London’s Canary Wharf, even though the EU is about to run a competition to relocate them.

A UK Brexit department spokesman said: “No decisions have been taken about the location of the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency — these will be subject to the exit negotiations.”

The government has left open the possibility of keeping part of some EU agencies, at least in the short term, but the idea of the UK hosting key institutions after Brexit is unacceptable in Brussels.

“The government will discuss with the EU and member states how best to continue co-operation in the fields of banking and medicines regulation in the best interests of both the UK and the EU,” the spokesman said.

Mr Davis may simply be putting the agencies into the wider Brexit negotiation in the expectation that they can be traded for a concession elsewhere; EU officials say there is no question they must move.

But Donald Tusk, European Council president, will this month set out the criteria for judging what will be an intensely fought competition over which city will replace London as the host of the agencies.

EU leaders are expected to discuss the new base for the agencies at a summit on April 29, where the 27 remaining member states will hammer out their Brexit strategy.

No decision will be made at that point, but Mr Tusk wants to lay the ground rules for deciding which city should host the agencies. Such contests have unleashed fierce national rivalries in the past. In 2001, then Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi insisted that a new food standards agency should be based in Parma instead of Helsinki, saying: “The Finns don’t even know what prosciutto is.”

“The EMA and EBA both have to go to a member state,” an EU official said. “There are many interested member states. There is a broad understanding that it is something that you need to move quickly on.”

Asked whether there could be a decision by June, the official said: “That would be nice but I doubt it. You do not have to spend long here to know that these decisions are difficult to make.”

The EMA’s Canary Wharf headquarters hosts 36,000 national regulators and scientists each year from across the continent, who come to London to approve drugs for the EU. London’s 890-strong secretariat plays a central role in co-ordinating that work.

The EBA, which was set up in 2011, has 159 staff at its London office, also at Canary Wharf.

Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Milan, Stockholm, Barcelona and Dublin are all bidding to host the medicines agency and there may eventually be up to 20 applicants. The agency will not only bring highly skilled jobs to its new home but also act as a hub for the pharmaceutical industry and other research.

While European cities line up to bid for skilled work that is leaving London, John Longworth, the Eurosceptic former director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, has published a report saying that Brexit need not mean big delays at the border for goods passing between Britain and the EU.

The report, published by the Leave Means Leave campaign group, says efforts must be focused on using technology to create a “frictionless” border.

The report says businesses are “far more concerned” about customs clearance procedures within the UK and at the border with other countries than about any potential future tariffs with the EU.

Mr Longworth argues that, if necessary, customs checks could be carried out at a roadside station some distance away — or “inland clearance” — because ports such as Dover have little space to carry out checks.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 19:58

There already is a clear physical border between NI and Britain .... it's greeny-blue and wet.

iirc, there are already phyto-sanitary checks between these 2 parts of the UK on all farming / agricultural goods at BIP (Border Inspection Posts)
They'd just need to invest resources to extend these facilities - not trivial at all, but doable.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/11/2017 20:33

If the talks break down, the pound would tank again - I read up to another 10% -
which would accelerate the rise in food prices
Public opinion may be changed according to whether people believe Brexit will lower prices again, or continue to increase them

www.bbc.com/news/business-40530700

UK shoppers are "completely in the dark" about the effect Brexit will have on their weekly shop, a former Sainsbury's boss has told BBC Panorama.

Justin King, who ran the supermarket for a decade, said ^the "last thing" any current supermarket boss would reveal was their intention to put up prices.
But he added it was "very clear" shoppers would face "higher prices, less choice and poorer quality".^

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