Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

[RedToothBrush]

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

We are living under government by Dunning Kruger

DD is definitely conceited but I'm sure (?) he's said he won't stand again. Pluses and minuses about that, of course. But he was still made to look very foolish here .

I don't see why DD has clout. I think my DD has more clout to be honest!

Have been trying to catch up on most of the week. This thread is such a lifeline. Some of my random catching up thoughts...

1. Animals -I guess with the Irish and money issues animals don't matter.However this hasn't been picked up much by the press. Under EU law, animals are currently recognised as being capable of feeling pain and emotion (sentience). MPs this week voted to drop the inclusion of this animal protection into the Withdrawal Bill.

That leaves animals reliant on Michael Gove's compassion and his previous high animal welfare pledge.As if. He couldn't even understand the animal labelling regulations about pigs' ears on his own department's website.

One of the arguments put forward during the debate was that animal sentience is covered by the Animal Welfare Act 2006 but the RSPCA said this is not the case.

https://www.farminguk.com/News/MPs-vote-to-reject-inclusion-of-animal-sentience-in-Withdraw-47923.htmll

2. Ireland - Although I'm part Irish by descent I find the border issue incomprehensible.Perhaps because it just is. Thought this was in interesting concise comment on sky news...

"In the late 19th and early 20th centuries the Irish question frequently made British governments and prime ministers fall. In the late 20th and early 21st the Europe question did the same..Theresa May has to answer both."

news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-brexit-whack-a-mole-as-ireland-throws-a-spanner-in-the-works-11131098

Oooops sorry my links are the wrong way round. I really should leave this to the pros on here and just lurk quietly.

Please don’t. It’s nice to have some diversity.

Your contributions are always appreciated Lonelyplanetmum

I think that Skype news report is a good summary. In addition to the Irish Question, history talks of the Orange card, which is played by the Unionists once you think you have got to grips with the Irish Question. So you can see the power the DUP hold on the outcome and how irresponsible it was to give them that power. We've been here before and it generally doesn't end well. Any possible practical solution involving a special status for NI will probably be vetoed by Arlene making the government fall. This is one of the reasons why a written guarantee is needed.

Irexit: a brief synposis -

15/2/2017 - Enda Kenny rejects suggestions Ireland should leave EU.
24/7/2017 - The Policy Exchange (Gove in this up to his tonsils iirc) got a pet former Irish ambassador to Canada and joint secretary of the British-Irish secretariat in Belfast to make a dodgy case for Irexit. All of the former ambassador's basic premises were hotly disputed by Irish economists.
17/8/2017 - Farage suggested 'Irexit'.
25/10/2017 - Ian Paisley Jr, MP, DUP, aka 'tail that wags the dog' - as good as threatened economic ruin for Ireland if Ireland does not leave the EU. Accused Varadkar of “throwing his weight around” over Irish border issues.'

There may be more.

For my part, the thing that concerns me the most is the stubbornness of public opinion. A couple of weeks ago, I started to get the sense that the whole Brexit thing was unravelling, and there was a small chance it would be abandoned due to being impossible to pull off in practice. (Although that, politically, is not without its problems...). Or perhaps that "No deal" could be redefined as "Remain".

Despite the odd anecdote here and there about people changing their mind, I can't see any reason why people would shift from Leave to Remain or vice versa en masse. If you already thought that the EU is large, lumbering, inflexible institution that operates in direct and deliberate opposition to the UK's interests, then the negotiations thus far will serve only to reinforce that impression. If you already thought that much of the UK's strength derives from the fact that it is an active part of a larger league of nations, then what is under threat by the negotiations as they have played out thus far will serve only to reinforce that impression.

Westminster voting intention seems to be stuck on a dead heat, 40:40, with no signs of shifting either way since the election. Perhaps people are just bored of politics. Perhaps there are soft Tories who aren't too thrilled about how things are going, but continue to support their party because of Jeremy Corbyn. Who knows? The Lib Dems seem to have completely disappeared. Probably this is partly due to the fact that they get more coverage during election campaigns. But again this shows how successful Farage was...

But with so much entrenched opinion on all sides, how do you go about shifting public opinion? The fashionable view is that a change of Labour leadership would do it. I've been playing with a few counterfactuals recently, in particular one where Cooper, Burnham or Kendall won the leadership election in 2015. Certainly they would have campaigned harder for remain. Based on the YouGov data published after the referendum, I estimate that (everything else being the same) 72% of Labour voters would have had to have voted for Remain rather than the 65% that are believed to have done so. That's a lot of campaigning. And we'd have still had 'Breaking Point' and '£350 a week' and all the rest of it.

So let's assume the result was about the same or even closer. Would Labour have voted against the A50 Bill. Let's cast our mind back to 2015 and the Welfare Bill when acting leader Harriet Harman instructed the party to abstain: “We cannot simply say to the public you were wrong at the election,” she said. “We’ve got to wake up and recognise that this was not a blip; we’ve had a serious defeat and we must listen to why.”

Sounds familiar.

So let's go back further, and imagine that Ed Miliband had led Labour to victory in 2015. I think if the popular mindset were such that it votes for "Red" Ed over Cameron, then the popular mindset would have been such that the government would not have lost an In-Out EU referendum. Would his brother done better? My guess is that Scotland and the subsequent appeal of Corbyn with the membership tell us that the country was tired of bland interchangeable politicians: Brown, Balls, Milibands, Cameron, Osborne, Clegg, Alexander, Cooper, Kendall, Murphy, Dugdale, ...

We are where we are because of a path that started being trod at least 10, probably 20 and maybe even 30 years ago. Anyone who advocates a magic bullet I think massively underestimates how deeply rooted is the stalemate we've found ourselves in.

Despite the odd anecdote here and there about people changing their mind

The public are fickle though and can have their minds changed suddenly. Who for example either knew or cared about the Falklands and where they were until the Falklands war? Cue lots of flag waving, the Falklands are ours. In my defence, I did know, I did history A level and 'the Falklands question' keeps bobbing up through history.

What might change people's mind? Not being able to book next year's holiday flights? It will be spun as the EU's fault, but the public might not buy it. I won't be buying any flights in a hurry, having been caught up with Monarch going bankrupt. (The credit card company paid up, with no quibbles).

How can DD be frozen out?

The man has freely admitted that he has not read the EU position papers on various areas of Brexit.

He failed to take notes to a meeting with Barnier.

If you are supposed to be negotiating then understanding where the other side is at and having information with you to support your own position is the very basics of your actual job.

Anything less than that is putting your head in the sand and trying to pretend that what anyone else on either side thinks is irrelevant to your personal opinion which might not even be legally possible or practically achievable in the time frame you are preposing.

Whilst I put forward the argument that Johnson might not be being well briefed I absolutely do not accept the same for Davis. He is ill informed on things which have been viral on fucking twitter by serious individuals with experience in their fields and knowledge of operational frameworks and legalities and can not put a credible argument forward about why their concerns are not valid. Many of us have kept up with it despite not being paid to do so.

If Davis isn't getting stuff it's because he's demonstrated too many times the reason why that's occurring. It's because he's too fucking lazy and arrogant (an argument which may well be equally valid for Johnson too but there are additional sensitivities within the foreign office and less transparency and public scrutiny).

Anyway

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Wondering how govt gets from EU dressing down today to 'sufficient progress' in December? Crunch meeting of Brexit cabinet cttee on Monday that sources suggest will decide if we're ready to pay more to move on, or not, and risk all that entails
"People have to decide if they genuinely want to move on and to support this PM" one source tells me....more online in a bit, but Monday may be the vital day where approach at home is decided before we can move on abroad
Some cabinet ministers tho still believe there can't be agreement on approach to the cash before there's discussion on our eventual deal with the UK - and that wide discussion STILL hasn't happened

PMs position here, I believe is to cough up and go forward rather than withholding it. I believe this is what she has been telling EU leaders.

That means those obstructing here are the Brexiteers and that's who the unnamed source above is referring to - not Tory Mutineers ironically.

I'm loving this exchange this morning:

Faisal Islam @ FaisalIslam
So EU27 has already decided where EMA is going before UK decides what, how, when, where & who runs medicines regulation & relations with EU

Arron Banks @ arron_banks
Are you a reporter or a propagandist for the EU?

Faisal Islam @ FaisalIslam
Who is moaning now? All facts, all happening. Perhaps find/fund some answers/ plans to these situations rather than silly memes & botnets

More seriously it shows something else though. The Leavers are no longer in control of events and the direction of travel and they don't like that. They are behind the curve of things that have already happened. More to the point, they can only try and talk their way back into things. Events dear boy are happening...

Here's another great tweet.

Kate Hoey @ katehoeymp
No-one wants a hard border so why does @campaignforleo imply it is British Government’s responsibility. @DavidDavisMP won’t be putting up barriers at border so will the Irish Government? Taoiseach should tell @EU_Commission to stop playing games and begin serious talks

Because Kate they have a legal obligation to the EU's borders. Because Kate the Good Friday Agreement. Because Kate we triggered a50 without thinking about this first and are behaving irresponsibly.

Dunning Kruger indeed.

Re stubbornness if British public. As far as many of them are concerned - both leavers and remainer - the decision was made on 23rd June and we should just get on with it.

The reason we can't just get on with it is because it's legally difficult and practically time-consuming. Both things beyond their interest and understanding - and that of MPs it would also seem.

Resistance to Brexit, I suspect has maintained because of this lack of willingness to acknowledge the reality and problems and because May has created new ones unnecessarily.

Support for Brexit has maintained because Brexiteers see this as being trying to ignore their will. Not because they are that committed to Brexit. Most don't understand Brexit so how can they be committed to it. They don't know what Brexit is, because no one knows what Brexit will ultimately entail. It's still in the realms of Brexit being as those who voted for it imagined it to be.

The government's unwillingness to shape Brexit is the crunch point. As soon as they do, people's ideas of what Brexit is will be shattered. It won't be what they wanted and they will be disappointed and won't be happy with how it affects their lives.

The battle is for who is to blame for that. The Government may struggle to contain that, for all the blaming of the EU.

That's why nothing has moved forward and why the government is afraid to move forward.

They don't feel they are winning the propaganda war at home and resistance to Brexit has stayed stronger than perhaps they anticipated and they certainly didn't expect the GE result.

Plus the more they fuck it up, the more willing Tories are to stand up to the government to save their own necks.

When things do eventually start to take shape, that's when public opinion might well start to shift.

Another small change of heart displayed

Ed McMillan-Scott
@emcmillanscott
“High time for a rethink on Brexit” says previously pro-Brexit Evesham Journal in the heart of England
@campbellclaret @acgrayling

Lewis Goodall @ lewis_goodall
Wetherspoons owner Tim Martin just said on @BBCr4today that the EU hasn't done a trade deal with a major economy. Which is true. Unless you totally forget about Japan. Or Canada. He went totally unchallenged. Not really serving the audience.

And that's a good example of why public opinion isn't shifting too. Not enough challenging of outright bullshit because media too afraid to, unwilling to or too ignorant to.

The divorce bill. The eu want some sort of confirmation on it. Not necessarily a figure, or a formula but something that will show that we will settle our bill. Or maybe just acknowledge we have a bill.

The UK assert that without a trade deal they can't come up with that, as a trade deal could possibly affect it. In some respects, that's fair enough.

So why the hell, if we are so desperate to get to trade talks, will no one come up with something on the basis of no deal caveated that trade talks will obviously change it's nature?

Oh yeah, the government don't actually want to be able to be held to account for it.

Dominic Grieve interview in Times

Not paywalled.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-grieve-putin-wants-division-and-brexiteers-are-at-risk-of-being-his-useful-idiots-bzkcx0bjt?shareToken=770a94d6cd107db8df70c99f16317429
Dominic Grieve: Putin wants division, and Brexiteers are at risk of being his useful idiots

The Conservative MP has fears about leaving the EU but says he is no rebel

“The belief that we are trying to destroy Brexit or put a spanner in the works is just not correct,” Mr Grieve, 61, says. “We all regret Brexit and think it is a mistake but with the possible exception of Ken Clarke we are not trying to kill off Brexit. So I am not sure what we are meant to be mutinying over.” The former minister insists that all he is trying to do is improve the bill. “We are objecting to attempts to characterise this piece of legislation as some kind of loyalty test. It’s a process bill, it is quite techy, incomprehensible to most people. I suspect if we don’t get it into a reasonable order the Lords will rewrite it.” Most of his fellow rebels have legal backgrounds. “We have tended to look at this with a lawyer’s eye,” he says. “We aren’t querying everything, I want to avoid rebellion.”

Re stubbornness if British public

I'd suggest a lot is to do (a la "Yes Minister") with the way the questions are being asked ....

I've told this story before...

The day after the ref vote I went to Ikea to drown my sorrows in sausages...

An elderly disabled man was talking to his companion. He said, and I quote;

"They are all liars but at least Nigel farage is an honest liar"

When you are faced with this ^ level of ignorance what can you do?

I believe this type of leave voter is who the Tories and Labour are so frightened of.

How do you get through to them? Is it even possible?

😔😔😔😔😡😡😡😡

We need some economist to put together a ball park figure about how much Brexit is likely to cost us over a 5-10 year period. This might put people off.

Loss of EU agencies.
Loss of jobs.
Higher prices due to raised import tariffs.
Higher prices due to poor £ : € exchange rate.
Higher prices for flights and when abroad on holiday.
Cost of visas to EU countries?
Cost of healthcare in EU.
EU divorce bill. (50 billion?)
Losing EU workers (e.g. NHS) and having to locum cover vacancies, then pay to train up our own staff.
Potential for people losing pay rights when EU worker protections go.

What else? I'm no financial expert.

I really believe we can't afford this. Surely many people would agree?

What makes me think we have a chance of reversing brexit is the attitude of the brexiteers themselves. Why are they in such a rush to leave? Why do they seem scared of negotiating a trade deal, preferring to go no deal? Why do they shut down any kind of debate by calling people remoaners or traitors? Because they know they are trying to sell us the emperor's new clothes. And at some point someone is going to look at the people shouting he's got no clothes and see it for themselves. But I agree that it will never happen for some people because they're trained to see the clothes, in the form of bendy bananas laws etc.

Hester a lot of those negatives were listed before the referendum. They were dismissed as Project Fear.

And look at Leavers' answers to any forecasts of downsides to Brexit in the coming years and decades. "We can't know what will happen in the future." "That's just propaganda from the elite." "We'll find ways around it."

There are plenty of people who won't change their minds until it's far too late and the forecasts have been proved correct. And some who won't change their minds even then - those will just cast around for scapegoats.

You're right patty but I'd like to see some figures on it.

I think the fickleness of public opinion may be illusory to a certain extent. We tend as humans to collapse periods of history onto a single point. A recent example is the rise of the SNP in Scotland, which was most spectacularly displayed in the 2015 UK GE and the 2011 Holyrood election before it, and which some will have seen as 'coming from nowhere'. (Certainly true of the BBC election night coverage). In truth SLab's decline can already be seen in the late 90s (even if the rot wasn't fully evident until the mid 00s). Likewise it was 7 years from the Poll Tax riots (which retrospectively one might view as emblematic of Tory unpopularity in the late Thatcher era) to a change of government - despite weak leadership, an ongoing recession and little sign of recovery.

I seriously doubt that any one thing, like being unable to book a holiday or supermarket price rises, will cause a Leave voter's regrets. Much less cognitive dissonance is involved in blaming that on an EU which is no punishing us to leave, than in admitting that the Leave result was responsible.

... now punishing us for leaving ...