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Brexit

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again. A Big Battle Looms.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/11/2017 13:56

Today has seen the publication of a story about how Johnson and Gove are holding May hostage in a ‘soft coup’ and have made various demands over what they want for a hard Brexit. The letter which was for May’s and Barwell’s eyes only has some how leaked. Don’t forget how Gove has just joined the Brexit Cabinet.

It comes at a time, when the Observer is also leading with an editorial demanding Johnson goes over his handling of the Nazarin Zagheri-Ratcliffe case as well as his long list of poorly judged comments which have had diplomatic consequences and another newspaper is leading with a story about how 40 Tories are ready to no-confidence May.

It all smacks of a personal battle between May and Johnson to govern the party, which has been playing out publicly for some time, most noticeable in the parallel Tory party conference leadership speeches and Johnson’s freelancing.

Johnson also seems to be potentially caught up, with what happens in the Mueller investigation due to a photo and lying about having met Misfud which could be politically damaging.

Priti Patel’s –sacking-- resignation also fits in neatly with the story. The Foreign Office were not informed and there is the curious side story that May DID know various details but told Patel to keep quiet, so not to embarrass the FCO. Or more to the point, be seen to be undermining Johnson.

Whether this is true or not we don’t know. It does have implications if its true, but it also says something if its not too. Why leak the story at all? Once again its about the Johnson v May dynamic.

As it stands, if Gove and Johnson have been leading May then why would they decide to ditch her and go for power without her?
Notably Gove has the best satisfaction scores of the Cabinet amongst Tories on Conservative Home too. He has had a lot of favourable comments over his statements over pesticides. The pair seem to have put differences aside and are working together. And May has become more and more of a liability. Johnson, also came second favourite to be Tory leader amongst Tories (if you discount don’t knows and none of the aboves). Maybe they fancy their chances…

Or it’s a last ditch attempt to cling on to that power as threats that Johnson might finally get the boot – if Zagheri-Ratcliffe does have her sentence extended and Johnson’s position is no longer tenable for even May’s self-preservation. Whilst much has been framed about it being about May’s political survival, its definitely not just her whose future is in doubt. Who was the ‘dead wood’, that young Tories demanded be ditched in a reshuffle to bring in young blood? Either way, Gove has firmly hitched his wagon to Johnson's effectively repeating Johnson's dismissal of Zagheri-Ratcliffe's case.

Anyway another week and another set of high political drama is a foregone conclusion.

A round up of other developments this week:

Tory Party / Government

  1. May announces intention to enshrine Brexit leaving date in law to force rebels to tow the line. This has many implications, not least tax related and putting more pressure on the UK government. It’s generally regarded as a desperate move by anyone sane.
  2. The Impact Assessments were a dogs dinner that was done at the last minute, and were not worth the paper they were written on. There was no detail to them.
  3. Priti Patel’s –sacking—resignation after having undocumented and unauthorised meetings with a series of Israel ministers. And then lying about it.
  4. Penny Mordaunt, who lied about the UK not having a veto to stop Turkey joining the EU, replaced Patel.
  5. Damien Green Porn. Another ex-policeman is backing the story that it was found on his computer despite Green’s denials.
  6. The ongoing Zagheri-Ratcliffe story with Iran and Johnson’s gaff and none apology
  7. Photograph of Johnson with ‘The Professor’ Misfud has been found. This links Johnson to how events in the US might pan out. If there are lots more revelations in the Mueller inquiry about him, then that might reflect on Johnson and make him subject to some difficult questions. Politically this might be problematic for Johnson.
  8. Claims that the whips office leaked the name of someone who reported allegations against Nigel Evans which occurred 6 months after Evans had been cleared of rape and the sexual assault of six men
  9. Suspended Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has complained that he is yet to be informed of what he has been accused of.
  10. Young Tory MPs issue threat to May that she brings in young blood and gets rid of ‘dead wood, who do nothing but screw up’. Give her until the New Year to do so.
  11. 40 Tories apparently ready to no confidence May.
  12. Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals a very small percentage of people want a no deal situation despite all the noise of it being a good idea.
  13. Lord Ashcroft mentioned in the Paradise papers. Reported as domiciled in Belize despite assurances given to parliament that he would give up his non-dom status and pay tax in the UK as a Lord.

Parliament / Opposition both inside and outside parliament
14) May facing a possible revolt over Universal Credit. MPs due to vote on reducing wait times.
15) Talk that there are enough Tory Rebels prepared to back a Dominic Grieve amendment to force a meaningful vote on the Brexit Deal.
16) May under increasing pressure from business leaders to make a deal after a meeting with them at no. 10.
17) Lots of distraction in the Paradise Papers generally which raises the question over the power and influence of the super rich versus the poor. This plays well to Labour’s narrative and against the idea of a low tax post Brexit Britain.
18) Lord Kerr, author of the a50 clause states that May has misled the public and insists that it is reversible.
19) New Money Laundering and Sanctions Bill in the Lords. Government looking to omit 4th EU directive on tax avoidance. Naturally raises questions about whether UK would adopt new rules due to come into force the week after Brexit Day.
20) Money Laundering Bill also has lots of overlap with immigration and home office operations, raising some rather sinister questions over who could be affected and why. Potential for abuse seems to be huge.
21) Leave leaning Cornwall and Grimsby seeking special status in the face of Brexit – in line with remaining to preserve business / economic interests
22) Suicide of Welsh Assembly Labour member who was under investigation for sexual harassment
23) A Labour MP accuses the already suspended fellow Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins of inappropriate behaviour.

EU
24) Ireland demands the UK stays in the customs union.
25) Brexit talks have not progressed at all despite apparently being speeded up. Barnier saying that progress in December only possible if UK makes moves on the settlement deal. Prospect of stage two being delayed until March being raised. This leaves just 7 months to come to a deal, which plays to the No Deal Crowd’s interests.
26) EU believe the UK are not working in the best interests of the UK and there is a failure by May and Davis to understand the process or what No Deal will mean.
27) EU signalling that there is no bespoke transition. Only available options ae EEA or EFTA fudges.
28) Increasing view in Brussels that No Deal likely. EU think May hasn’t got the authority to come to a deal and its easier for her to drag UK off the cliff. Though they have doubts she will survive much longer.

World
29) Trump sides with Putin above the US Intelligence Community over the Russian election interference. On Veterans Day.
30) US’s Wilbur Ross said UK will have to dump European food safety standards and that losing our passporting rights to the EU would harm our interests with the US.
31) Developments in Lebanon, with it being said that Saudi Arabia said to have declared war. Many would consider this to be a proxy war against Iran. Crown Prince has purged political opponents including several with significant Wall Street interests. Eight died in a helicopter crash.
32) Large scale far right march in Poland as part of their Independence Day.

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Thread gallery
50
lalalonglegs · 15/11/2017 13:41

You don't have to oppose Brexit to think the government can't cope with it.

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2017 13:44

Chris Higgins‏*@chrisfhiggins*
Ha! Great minds and all that. Here’s my version.

Aha! Me Hearties!

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again.  A Big Battle Looms.
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RedToothBrush · 15/11/2017 13:54

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/corbyn-reveals-hundreds-of-families-to-be-evicted-over-universal-credit-fears-of-letting-agent-pmqs_uk_5a0c39a1e4b0b17ffce1802c?qhm
Universal Credit: Hundreds Of Families To Be Evicted As Letting Agent Warns It Can't Cope With Arrears
Tenants told debt risk means 'extraordinary measures' needed

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RhiannonOHara · 15/11/2017 13:56

You don't have to oppose Brexit to think the government can't cope with it.

Exactly this. What is an opposition for if not for asking the difficult questions the party in power can't/won't ask itself?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/11/2017 14:06

BBC Parliament‏*@BBCParliament*

Tory MP @Anna_Soubry says she's been subjected to threatening tweets, following headlines on Telegraph newspaper. Free press is a good thing, says Mr Speaker, but MPs "free to do what they think is right". Threats to intimidate Ms Soubry "repugnant" and "doomed to fail".

borntobequiet · 15/11/2017 14:10

I'm probably alone in thinking that Corbyn is doing the right thing at PMQs by sticking to "everyday" stuff. Why be drawn into the maelstrom that is the Tory party ripping itself to bits? It would only invite "Labour want to thwart Brexit" comments. (Wish Labour did want to thwart Brexit.)
Let mutineer Tories do the heavy lifting.

ElenaGreco123 · 15/11/2017 14:16

But there aren't enough Tory mutineers. Also Corbyn is always so righteous and principled about everything else. He really rubs me up the wrong way.

ElenaGreco123 · 15/11/2017 14:50

Rachel Sylvester on the mutineers

@RSylvesterTimes 2:32 pm · 15 Nov 2017
A better cabinet than the current one. Foreign sec - tugenhat, Chancellor - KC, lord chancellor - grieve, home sec - soubry. Welfare - Heidi Allen, Leader - nicky m?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/11/2017 14:56

Seema Malhotra‏*@SeemaMalhotra1*

The Speaker, in a Point of Order, has confirmed the Gov have less than two weeks to publish the #BrexitReports (impact studies) or will be in contempt of Parliament.

Cailleach1 · 15/11/2017 14:58

It is fiddling while Rome burns, though. You can call it principled, but it is neglectful. If a fire has started in your house, you don't spend all your energy going on about and trying to fix the roof.

Fire will grow and have a bigger impact on the bl**dy roof and everything else inside.

gauche imagery with brexit being fire of course, but where is the biggest threat to public spending right now?

Rearranging the deckchairs on the titanic comes to mind, too. Although maybe slightly too drastic.

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2017 15:46

Jim Waterson‏ @jimwaterson
This Twitter user was named as a Russian troll by ByLine who cited his "horrific use of English" and "pro-Russian posture". In reality he's just a Glaswegian security guard.

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/i-m-not-a-russian-troll-i-m-a-security-guard-from-glasgow-1-4614102

ByLine should be taken like The Canary. This rather proves the point.

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/11/2017 15:58

Cailleach Your post brought to mind this picture

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again.  A Big Battle Looms.
Kofa · 15/11/2017 16:02

Boris Johnson might find his Irish cake hard to digest.

British foreign secretary is either clueless about Border or doesn’t give a damn.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/boris-johnson-might-find-his-irish-cake-hard-to-digest-1.3291764?mode=amp

"The UK’s flailing effort to leave the EU can be measured not in policy gains or political successes, but in soundbites. It is best captured in the one beloved of Boris Johnson, Britain’s foreign secretary, that, when it comes to Brexit, “we can have our cake and eat it”.

Johnson, who is due to visit Dublin on Friday, will no doubt be offered tea and – who knows? – cake when he meets Simon Coveney, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, at Iveagh House. As even the British foreign secretary must know by now, though, having your cake and eating it is not a sustainable foreign policy.

It has taken a while, but that reality is beginning to sink in among Britain’s arch-Brexiteers, of whom Mr Johnson is the blustering archetype. To take one example that concerns us mightily in Ireland, consider the breezy response of British advocates of leaving the EU to Irish concerns about the impact of Brexit on the Border. What we were told repeatedly was, in effect, “Don’t worry, nothing will change”.

There was no better illustration of the Brexiteers’ cluelessness about Ireland than that obvious falsehood. The ignorance was instructive, nonetheless. Dominic Hannigan, who was the chairman of the Oireachtas EU affairs committee before the UK referendum, told me, after an appearance by – I think – Bill Cash, another arch-Brexiteer Conservative MP: “The trouble with the British is that they think we are still part of the family.”

Knowing nothing about Ireland is hardly new among British political leaders. That may have something to do with the poor state of history-teaching in English schools. Johnson and other arch-Brexiteers such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has emerged as the darling of the Tory right wing, went to Eton and the University of Oxford. They received the best education money can buy. Yet they seem to have learned nothing.

That is one reason why the dangers of Brexit for the island of Ireland – for not just economic ties but social, historical and political affiliations, in some cases dating back centuries – were so casually brushed aside before the referendum. A campaign based on “taking back control of our borders” had nothing to say on the post-Brexit fate of the UK’s most important external border – the one that separates this Republic from Northern Ireland.

There is more to the Brexiteers’ attitude to Ireland than mere cluelessness, however. There is the awful prospect that they simply do not give a damn. Their desire for a clean break with the EU, their readiness to reverse nearly half a century of assimilation in European networks of trade, diplomacy and security, and their willingness to turn their backs on the world’s largest and richest free trade zone in the stated pursuit of free trade, are evidence that they don’t really care about Britain or Europe. Why, in the circumstances, should they give a fig about us?

Yet, as was evident after last week’s round of negotiations between the UK and the EU, nowhere is the wishful thinking at the heart of Brexit being exposed more pitilessly than on the question of the Border in Ireland.

The Brexiteers tell us at every opportunity that there must be “no hard border” in Ireland after Brexit. Yet the strategy they are maniacally pursuing, of a “cliff-edge”, or “hard”, or “no deal” Brexit, will create that very thing, with all the administrative, physical and political infrastructure that will be required to make it work. That is the political and legal reality of the UK’s decision to leave the EU single market and customs union, and not a plot by eurocrats to punish Britain. The argument by pro-Brexit advocates that if there is a hard border in Ireland after the UK leaves the EU, it will be the fault of Europe and not the UK, is dishonest.

Why do Brexiteers hold such a contradictory stance on the Irish Border? One answer is that they do not understand the nature of borders – and in particular the nature of the Irish one. They seem to regard the Border as simply a commercial barrier that can be overcome with the use of (yet to be invented) technological wizardry; as a 500km-long traffic-calming speed-bump that you can negotiate just by slowing down for a minute.

Of course, the Irish Border is a commercial barrier. It divides two economies that use different currencies, for starters. Uniquely in the EU, however, it does not divide two peoples made distinct by language, religion or history. It is happily disappearing for practical purposes, but it remains a political, symbolic, historical, psychic and contested space. As I discovered last spring, when I spent a few days in Fermanagh talking to people whose lives were changed forever by their proximity to the Border, it is a place of human tragedy and ethnic cleansing.

The Brexiteers are ignorant of the Border – not just of its symbolism but of the reality of life along its winding course through communities, fields, and farmyards. That is why they appear ready to sacrifice the spirit, if not the letter, of the Belfast Agreement, with all its imperfections, its cumulative small victories, and its one great achievement, in their pursuit of a fantasy that does not include us.

Yet their ignorance has set a trap for them. Our Brexiteer friends are starting to discover that it is not in Brussels or Berlin that they cannot have their cake and eat it, but in Ireland."

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2017 16:49

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/tory-mp-accuses-party-whips-of-deliberately-leakin/
Tory MP Accuses Party Whips Of Deliberately Leaking Telegraph's “Brexit Mutineers” Story

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Peregrina · 15/11/2017 17:02

has confirmed the Gov have less than two weeks to publish the #BrexitReports (impact studies) or will be in contempt of Parliament.

I foresee midnight oil being burnt, to achieve this.

mrsreynolds · 15/11/2017 17:11

Published?
Don't they need to be written first?

OlennasWimple · 15/11/2017 17:20

I thought this article by Peter Hain was interesting - and depressing - on NI. TL:DR is that NI has real problems even without Brexit that need urgent attention

borntobequiet · 15/11/2017 17:37

I didn't express myself well. I didn't mean that Corbyn was principled or "right" in a moral sense to ignore Brexit. Just that from his point of view it might be politically expedient to keep out of the fray at present. I have no idea where Labour are really heading wrt Brexit. Perhaps they don't either.

Missingthesea · 15/11/2017 17:43

No residents of the flats are/ have volunteered to be core participants to give evidence.

If I'm reading it correctly, it seems to be saying that they have had no applications from residents of 19 of the flats, rather than from none of the flats at all. Thank you for posting the link {smile}

woman11017 · 15/11/2017 17:58

Missingthesea Yes, 19 flats, unclear in my original post, sorry.
And wrong call for J Patrick, you're right red. He explains it in his article, but it's in byline.

@carolecadwalla
Brexit bros @LeaveEUOfficial now deleted tweet about "traitor" MPs being a "cancer". But they've left up video of me being violently assaulted & threatened with gun. As has Twitter.

@MrBrendanCox
I disagree with @Telegraph ‘s politics but always thought it a responsible media outlet. I hope today was a mistake & they won’t repeat

@MrBrendanCox
This is what @Telegraph front page spawns. It creates a context where violence is more likely. No matter the issue, there’s no excuse.
twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/930745964561825792

woman11017 · 15/11/2017 18:03

In fact, despite reporting the Leave threat, it's still up. People are asking for people to report it to have it taken down.
Link:
twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/930455184710520832

woman11017 · 15/11/2017 18:09

She is worried.

Westministenders: The Tory Civil War – The Knives Are Out Again.  A Big Battle Looms.
LurkingHusband · 15/11/2017 18:20

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41996872

A musician who wants to tour Europe to heal the "huge divisions" caused by Brexit has been given a grant by the UK Department for International Trade.

(contd)

I don't rememeber voting for my taxes to go on this.

Melassa · 15/11/2017 18:56

Surely it should be reported to the police and not just Twitter? It's incitement to commit a violent crime.

I fully appreciate I may have missed a post further down which said just that.

In any case, utterly shocking. And even more shocking there appears to be no official condemnation. What hellhole has the UK become???

RedToothBrush · 15/11/2017 19:12

Nicky Morgan MP‏ @NickyMorgan01
So the Daily Mail is now calling round our constituencies & local parties asking how we represent our constituents - of course not interested when response is supportive & entirely missing the point that we were all elected or re-elected just 5 months ago #AntiBullyingWeek

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