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Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2017 22:14

Anyone think of a new Tory Logo ?
Westministenders suggestions, please Grin

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/22/senior-tories-want-theresa-may-change-party-logo-tree-ladder/

Senior Conservative MPs are calling for the party to replace its "broccoli" logo with a ladder to represent social mobility.

Former Government minister Robert Halfon said the move would demonstrate the party's commitment to working people and show that the Tories value opportunity Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2017 22:15

I thinking this would suit

OlennasWimple · 25/10/2017 22:21

Just to create a nice loop between a few different strands on here, don't forget Damien Green was once arrested for receiving leaked official documents...

Peregrina · 25/10/2017 22:23

imo, Ponting seemed totally shocked that he could be prosecuted, at his rank

But Ponting got off, whereas Sarah Tisdall, whose grade was that of clerical officer, was imprisoned, for leaking a document about the arrival of Cruise missiles. This was not held to be a matter of National Security. Again it was a matter of saving political embarrassment.
www.theguardian.com/media/2005/sep/05/mondaymediasection.pressandpublishing1

Although we got a lot of flak at the time and accusations of being Commies etc., I always feel glad that I took part in the Greenham protests. The time in the December when women 'embraced the base' stands out. I took my then almost 4 year old daughter along, leaving DH and DS at home, and contributed an outgrown baby vest to the wire.

OlennasWimple · 25/10/2017 22:23

Compare and contrast Jared O'Mara to Mhairi Black. I'm going to guess that there isn't any dirt to dig up on her, because I bet that lots of people have been employed to try to do just that since she was elected and I haven't seen much bad said about her. So whilst obviously none of us want to be held accountable for dumb things we said and did whilst young, let's not pretend that it's inevitable and just one of those things - particularly for someone who had political ambition from an early age.

woman11017 · 25/10/2017 22:28

Thanks for the reminder about Sarah Tisdall. There are similarities between then and now.

Tory logo idea bigchoc: their boss and funder, using a picture he doesn't like:

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
SwedishEdith · 25/10/2017 22:30

Was just reading about Ponting. Jury directed to convict but didn't. Guess some good old sexism still going on there - he > high grade, important man, she > low grade, silly woman.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/feb/26/freedomofinformation

Interestingly, MEP Chris Heaton-Harris turns up here as well.

prettybird · 25/10/2017 22:40

I think this was the worst that they were able to dig up about Mhairi Black...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11574555/Head-butts-Nazis-and-sham-campaigns-The-scandals-linked-to-the-SNP-firebrands-who-could-be-MPs.html

That and the "You're talking shite" lip reading quote in the HoP. Plus she was accused of scaremongering for saying that Westminster could overrule Holyrood over fracking Hmm (Repel Bil/Henry VIII powers anyone? Hmm)

Pretty thin pickings!

woman11017 · 25/10/2017 22:40

contributed an outgrown baby vest to the wire
It was a work of art, all the items the women put on the fences. Now a thriving nature reserve.
www.bbowt.org.uk/reserves/greenham-crookham-commons.
Smile
Thanks to Tisdall and the women.

HesterThrale · 25/10/2017 22:44

Thanks woman.

I'm loving some of the comments on Chris Heaton-Harris' twitter comment:

mobile.twitter.com/chhcalling/status/922796314265571328

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2017 23:01

Ollie‏*@Ollie4Lab*

Why do all the papers have online reports on #Bermuda tax leak but not the @MailOnline ? Oh...

Jess Phillips‏*@jessphillips*
Can I just say that O'Mara is older than me and I had two kids for much of the time in question

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
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RedToothBrush · 25/10/2017 23:57

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/25/senior-labour-figures-told-jared-omaras-heinous-comments-month/

Senior labour figures knew about the O'Mara stuff since 20th Sept.

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BigChocFrenzy · 26/10/2017 00:03

Blimey, 93-yr-old George HW Bush apologising to an actress over inappropriate behaviour in his wheelchair, when he was next to his wife:

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/25/george-hw-bush-apologizes-after-actor-accuses-him-of-sexual-assault

Holliewantstobehot · 26/10/2017 00:08

Perhaps this for the tories ladder of opportunity logo.

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
OlennasWimple · 26/10/2017 01:24

Sept 20th was a really really long time ago to be sitting on those revelations... Hmm

Jared is easy, it's what JC does in response to #LabourToo that will be hard

HashiAsLarry · 26/10/2017 07:06

The Jess Phillips tweet above came off the back of one of a series of Mitch Benn tweets, where he was sort of trying to make the point I was trying to make yesterday. O'Mara may be the first but certainly won't be the last to have the mistakes of their youth (without excusing O'Mara's actual comments) so readily available, and that his generation were able to largely hide and forget theirs. The subsequent conversation between Benn and Phillips is very interesting, in that they address that not everyone will have a young and stupid phase and whether we should accept that some people do, that now its likely to have played out online and how you should react to it appropriately. Whilst simultaneously agreeing O'Mara was beyond young and stupid.

HashiAsLarry · 26/10/2017 08:00

New Tory logo incorporating a ladder as requested

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
ElenaGreco123 · 26/10/2017 08:16

Chaos is a ladder as we know from show Littlefinger in GoT.

RedToothBrush · 26/10/2017 08:28

Good Morning!

Here's your cheery Pete North wake up call.

Pete North @ petenorth303

  1. My read on Davis is that he is definitely going for the "mini deals" scenario. WTO+ - ie managed collapse.
  2. He's leaving everything to the last minute to then patch up a bare bones agreement.
  3. This would be things like Euratom and Open Skies etc with a short implementation - without an FTA.
  4. This is with a view to preventing airlines being grounded and a crisis in nuclear sector. Won't address customs.
  5. They have no intention of going for a fully developed Brexit process. This is why they are not bothering with a substantive NI proposal.
  6. Davis is marking time to wear down the clock. Everything else is a decoy - knowing that thicko MPs won't call the deception out.
  7. So the question is whether that can even happen inside A50. It may be possible but it will not be pretty.
  8. Davis is making a very dangerous assumption in believing that the EU will play ball.
  9. As Ivan Rogers has said, the EU will use the situation to push businesses out of the UK and into EU territory.
10. They'll cherry pick and only do the deals that suit them, on terms advantageous to them, leaving the UK hung out to dry. 11. UK will then be forced to accept the worst deal going or hit the road. It;s then down to politics to see where it goes. 12. If Davis comprehends the risks then he will be forced to sign. The EU will dictate all the terms. 13. Depending on the domestic politics and the political inertia therein, this could lead to an accidental Brexit. 14. Or Davis may simply let the A50 clock expire and we crash out with no deal at all - seeking to deflect the blame. 15. Either way there will be a hard border in Ireland, tariffs etc. Substantial loss of trade. 16. We might just escape a cascade failure but the deed will be done and we'll be staring at a decade of recession. 17. We will see a significant downturn in production industries, triggering serious inflation - in turn pushing up interest rates. 18. That will drive a collapse in the property market, with millions of house-buyers falling into negative equity. 19. UK credit rating will nosedive. Trade with the rest of the world will also plummet by way of having no SM access. 20. Most sector specific regulatory regimes will collapse and business will be swamped with more red tape than they can handle. 21. Expect a million job losses in the first year. As a starter for ten.
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mathanxiety · 26/10/2017 08:31

I find it hard to believe there would be actual ration books as opposed to cards to swipe, though maybe I shouldn't raise an eyebrow at that.

squishysquirmy · 26/10/2017 08:41

Surely if there were to be ration books, they would be subcontracted out?

Serco or G4S in charge of out food? Halloween Shock

RedToothBrush · 26/10/2017 08:57

This twitter exchange is... well.. here it is first:

Ed Conway @ edconwaysky
There is only one other country anywhere trading solely on WTO rules. And 1 to 17% of the population live in slavery
medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
Ed we won’t only have WTO in event of no EU Trade deal. We will roll over the 60 odd other deals we are party to currently.

EuroDublin @ LondonEuro
You won’t - they expire at same time - unless re negotiated on a case by case basis

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
All have agreed roll over.

RobM @ RobFZS
Fairly sure they haven't? link if so , definitely not on wto tariffs

EuroDublin @ LondonEuro
Obv they haven’t - that’s what Fox department are rushing to finalise by 2019

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
That’s what I did for the last year. Visited every one.

EuroDublin @ LondonEuro
Visited what? The govts of all and got govt conformation of deals? Or u talked to some bisiness person who said “something”!

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
I was the Trade minister

On the face of it good news. But as other people have pointed out, why haven't the government made more of it? This is gold to Brexiteers.

Mark Price (rather smugly) also says more on associated thread

Ed Conway @ edconwaysky
Q: what about the 1000 or so regulatory agreements ancillary to those trade agreements? Do they also continue during/after transition?

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
Hi Ed. Yes. Transferred as is to make things straightforward

And crucially

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
Canada isn’t in the 60 nor Japan or Vietnam.

And

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
I’m not after argument just trying to help with facts. 60 with eu trade deal have agreed to work on bilateral roll over

One Arsene Wenger @ everyonetalks21
Just to be clear. They haven't a agreed a final deal, they've agreed to work/discuss it when the time comes?

Mark Price @ LORDMARKPRICE
To be clear they have agreed to rollover the current deal and are working through.

So doesn't include some of most crucial markets we would have under EU and not finalised, simply agreed in principle.

It fits with the idea of unilateral continuity (what Pete North cheerfully talked about this morning) but I'd hope for it in any scenario.

So the good news is it looks like we won't be North Korea. But its not finalised.

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TheElementsSong · 26/10/2017 09:02

Here's your cheery Pete North wake up call.

Ah, but! Fake news, hysteria, scaremongering, won’t happen etc etc.

And! Actually it’s all going to be really wonderful and untold wealth will be showered upon us, because trade with rest of world (allegedly impossible within EU), plus prosecco and BMWs.

Also! Any amount of hardship is worth it for abstract nouns. Job losses, losing roof over family, feeding own children boiled grass, all part of demonstrating plucky Brexit British mettle.

Although! Brexit was going to be wonderful (see above) expect it’s all the fault of traitorous UnBeLeavers who have Made It Hard by Talking Britain Down.

LurkingHusband · 26/10/2017 09:02

Ladder is a good symbol for the Tory party: only open to the able-bodied, for a start.

However, if you top it with a glass ceiling, and ensure that it's situated over a very deep pit that's impossible to climb out of, then they will have encapsulated the Tory philosophy in a single image.

ElenaGreco123 · 26/10/2017 09:05

Off to garden centre to buy raised vegetable planters. It is scary stuff.

Is JDD a Twitter account?