Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

I thought that the Catalans had hoped to gain Independence during the Civil War, so the desire for it is not recent at all.

Leaving aside outside influences for a minute, I think a key contributing factor in the Catalonian crisis has been Spain ignoring its past for too long and then not fully dealing with it when it finally became something you could talk about in public.

The Catalonian crisis is not just an assertion of a national identity , it's a demand for acknowledgment and apologies. It's fertile ground for ferment.

I've met a lot of Spanish people over the years in a working capacity. People from Madrid always introduce themselves as Spanish , others identify according to their region- Basque, Catalan, Galician etc . That's just my observation and obviously not a fully referenced study, and others may have different experiences, but I've learnt not to make assumptions. I would also query how the Franco period is taught in schools but that may have changed in recent years , I'd be very interested if anyone knows.

The prevalent political and social culture in Spain has contributed to this situation, and needs to accept its share of responsibility. Outside influences may manipulate the situation but they didn't create it.

Spain needs a period of intense naval gazing- lots and lots of discussion, debate, revision and reconciliation of its recent history- if it is to move forward.

Ghosts has a habit of coming back to haunt you if you don't lay them to rest.

My impression is that the bitterness caused by the Civil War and the dictatorship of Franco has never been put to rest. There has never been anything like a truth and reconciliation process.

Sorry navel not naval, have not has. Have to correct myself or I won't be able to sleep

Exactly Peregrina. I recall having a very interesting conversation with a young student from Madrid about the public and political process that Ireland has recently gone through in relation to its role in World War 1( basically ignored, suppressed etc) and the acknowledgement and acceptance of this role that now exists. A niche subject perhaps for someone outside Ireland or without a speciality in the area. When I moved the conversation on to recent disclosures about the Spanish Civil War, the disappeared and so on he was genuinely ill informed. As were others in his group. Subsequent conversations suggested that it seemed to be something you didn't talk about in polite society, depending on where you were from.

Now again, I have to stress this is my experience and may not reflect others but I would still hold that Spain needs public discourse about its past and to heal if it is to consolidate as a state.

Just got back from watching the excellent Henning Wehn (despite Wolverhamptons best efforts to stop us )

"Westphalia is not an option" ... (highly recommended)

I was amused that he called for the hardest Brexit possible, as soon as possible, because "Back in 1973 this must have been fucking paradise ... you only had to work three days a week. Much lower energy bills ..."

He also makes a neat point about our attitude to race and ethnicity.

He announced he's studying for British Citizenship which is "like a high stakes pub quiz"

(As you might guess, we just got back and had some )

Next year is the centenary of the election of the first woman to the British Parliament. Countess Markievicz, an Irish revolutionary who didn't take her seat. I'm guess they mightn't mark that one.

"In 1918, she was jailed again for her part in anti-conscription activities. At the 1918 general election, Markievicz was elected for the constituency of Dublin St Patrick's, beating her opponent William Field with 66% of the vote, as one of 73 Sinn Féin MPs (out of 105 for Ireland in total). This made her the first woman elected to the British House of Commons. However, in line with Sinn Féin abstentionist policy, she would not take her seat in the House of Commons."
and
"In the aftermath of the elections, Sinn Féin's elected members refused to attend the British Parliament in Westminster (London), and instead formed a parliament in Dublin, the First Dáil (Irish for "Assembly"), which declared Irish independence as a republic. The Irish War of Independence was conducted under this revolutionary government which sought international recognition, and set about the process of state-building."

Both Wiki sources for ease. Ireland took the 1918 GE and regarded it as the first election towards an independent Ireland.

Wonder what is going to happen in the upcoming elections in Catalonia? It has been a disaster on all sides. I know some Catalans who voted for independence in the previous referendum. I know some others who would have cancelled them out. The actions of the Franco Regime there, are not forgotten. Any imposition of what would feel like martial law or heavy handedness may further a shift in desire for independence. The brutality already witnessed may have helped a little already. Puigdemont has created a mess, though. His responsibility should have been to make sure he set in place some sort of legal situation. He has recklessly created pandemonium. Madrid handled it like bstrds. They have removed the democratically elected Catalan President. After a stand off. Will the next election be a free one? What about the press and media? Just tying up with the Irish situation, what happens if they do like Ireland did and declare an Independent Catalonia on foot of elections? If the pro independence parties gain a majority.

"On 21 January 1919, Sinn Féin MPs (who became known as Teachta Dála, TDs), refusing to sit at Westminster, assembled in Dublin and formed a single-chamber Irish parliament called Dáil Éireann (Assembly of Ireland). It affirmed the formation of an Irish Republic and passed a Declaration of Independence," Lloyd George made it clear to 'President of the Republic', Éamon de Valera, that the achievement of a republic through negotiation was impossible ( after the truce in1921?).

Even talks, never mind negotiation, seems to be impossible in 2017 in Spain? It takes huge skill to bring people together and see the value in negotiations and compromise .

I'm sure some hate the EU for the very reason it was established. Europe isn't entangled in a 7, 30 or 100 years, or whatever war. Steel and Coal and nuclear fuels, Euratom under control. Touch wood.

Henning is always very watchable on HIGNFY. Sometimes it takes a minute.

In Memory of Eva Gore-Booth and Con Markievicz

BY WILLIAM BUTLER YEATS

"The light of evening, Lissadell,
Great windows open to the south,
Two girls in silk kimonos, both
Beautiful, one a gazelle.
But a raving autumn shears
Blossom from the summer's wreath;
The older is condemned to death,
Pardoned, drags out lonely years
Conspiring among the ignorant.
I know not what the younger dreams –
Some vague Utopia – and she seems,
When withered old and skeleton-gaunt,
An image of such politics.
Many a time I think to seek
One or the other out and speak
Of that old Georgian mansion, mix
Pictures of the mind, recall
That table and the talk of youth,
Two girls in silk kimonos, both
Beautiful, one a gazelle.

Dear shadows, now you know it all,
All the folly of a fight
With a common wrong or right.
The innocent and the beautiful
Have no enemy but time;
Arise and bid me strike a match
And strike another till time catch;
Should the conflagration climb,
Run till all the sages know.
We the great gazebo built,
They convicted us of guilt;
Bid me strike a match and blow"

I'm reluctant to draw unconditional parallels between Ireland and Catalonia although it's an obvious connection ( not suggesting you are either Cailleach) - this is a good read www.theirishstory.com/2017/10/03/catalonia-and-ireland/#.WfPM3DxenYU

Yes I've noticed that on other forums too. Hoping that catalexit will bring down the EU. Saying how much they're looking forward to the EU imploding. It's like it wasn't enough to win brexit. I suppose they're scared of being proved wrong. If we leave and the EU goes from strength to strength we are all going to look like right tits.

In a way it reminds me a bit of Agatha Christie's novel Passenger to Frankfurt which was about unrest and student protests being subtly instigated and manipulated by a behind the scenes organisation.

Listened to any questions. Was surprised to find myself agreeing with Loveday Jenkins all the way through. I always had Mebyon Kernow down as a cornish independance party, which is not something I agree with so never really looked into them. I might do so now. Surprisingly a lot of the audience seemed anti brexit. I had thought Newlyn area were pro because of the fishing.

That is a good read, Six.

That poem is such a mix of beauty and sadness. You don't feel it so sharply when young er.

RoI minister, banker accuse UK politicians of misleading British public

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-must-prepare-for-car-crash-on-brexit-aib-chairman-warns-1.3271156

[AIB chairman Richard Pym]
"We must plan for the worst possible car crash Brexit if the headbanger Brexiteers who are determined to push for a hard Brexit get their way.”
.....
[Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Simon Coveney]
“What has been promised politically in the UK is simply undeliverable"
.....
Former European Commission secretary-general Catherine Day said the UK would “eventually wake up to the fact that they have way less influence in the world, and they will hate that”.

Ms Day added that the UK’s exit from the EU would lift a “restraint” that it has placed on the bloc.
“I detect a new confidence in the EU,” she said.
“A feeling that the UK has been a restraint on moving forward for a long time, and that has now been lifted"

My Saturday morning thoughts about the elusive impact assessments. According to the FT headline ( which I haven't seen in full as behind the paywall) pressure is mounting to release the impact assessments all 57 ? of them. Bear with me...

Darling David's argument that releasing would negatively impact the UK's "negotiating position" just doesn't hold water for me. We have no bloody negotiating position. We want to leave. We desperately need trade with the EU. Everyone knows this.

As a negotiating position iirc the gov has tried these three main things:
1.Initially hinting that we won't co-operate on defence matters (really beneath contempt).

1. That we will use EU residents as bargaining chips (equally shabby).

3. That we will be difficult about paying our exit dues ( dishonourable).

All of these positions are acutely embarrassing clutching at straws,and show we have no substantive negotiating position.

But, if we still want to try and negotiate on exit dues, surely showing the negative impact from the assessments would help? The reports presumably show a massively negative effect on numerous sectors of our economy. This should strengthen our attempts to pay less towards our pre existing commitments, with payments spread over a longer period.

So let's bloody see them.

By analogy, If a company in financial difficulties published negative annual accounts then that would help negotiate a disputed payment down, because the creditor would be worried about not bring paid at all.

So to play devil's advocate, does this mean that the Heinz variety of impact assessments are being suppressed because they are positive? Could they reveal cake eating unicorns frolicking in sunlight rainbow filled pastures?

I have a friend who is Spanish and really do feel for her. She is already feeling screwed over by Brexit and had decided to return home sooner than planned. Now she is also feeling appalled at her own country. She is furious with all sides and feels that everyone has dealt with this situation in the worst possible way when it would have been perfectly possible to avoid this escalating.

We had an interesting chat about the similarities and differences between Catalonia and Ireland. She certainly sees parallels between Catalonia and NI in that this is a group of people who feel they have been oppressed and dictated to for decades. They suffered terribly during the civil war with wounds never really being addressed. She would like to see a similar reconciliation process put in place with the possibility of an actual referendum in the future on further independence, but suspects that both sides have gone too far for that to happen now.

Basically the whole thing is a lesson in how not to deal with an aggrieved portion of your country. What a bloody mess.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/michael-gove-blasted-for-inappropriate-harvey-weinstein-joke-live-on-air-a3670326.html?amp
Michael Gove blasted for 'inappropriate' Harvey Weinstein joke live on BBC Radio 4 Today programme

Just heard the footage of Gove on the Today programme. The laughter from Neil Kinnock and others is appalling too. I shook my head in despair.

Don't think Kinnock comes out of that smelling of roses either

Speaks volumes about the sort of culture prevalent in the Houses of Parliament

How on earth did any of them think that 'joke' was acceptable especially in light of the allegations about inappropriate sexual behaviour in Westminster. Think you're right prettybird, it has shone a light on the culture/attitudes at Parliament.

On another topic, dh has just made me go through and watch Michael Burke announcing the headlines on the BBC News, which he re-wound for me, with the comment, "Just how worried are they?"

He introduced it saying that the crisis was deepening in Spain "as the government in Madrid moved to take control of the Caledonian government"

Oops

Actually, not - it's sad and concerning for everyone concerned . But calleach has raised some interesting parallels with Ireland and Westminster's absolute refusal to even talk. I don't think that Scotland will ever come to that, as the SNP wouldn't declare UDI - but Glasgow is the last place within mainland UK that troops were ever used in anger against our own citizens (in the 20s).

And with talk of "treason" being defined as "opposing Brexit" by some of the nuttier Parliamentarians, then it's not so much of a hop, skip and a jump

Good Ian Jack piece on whether the UK in the wake of the EU ref.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/britain-caught-brexit-storm-scotland-england-stick-together?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=249835&subid=18573163&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

You'd think the UK would be able to give some good advice on how to deal with an aggrieved part of your country. Shame Westminster consistently fails to learn from its own failures.

"but Glasgow is the last place within mainland UK that troops were ever used in anger against our own citizens (in the 20s)."

I don't think that was the last time. There have been reports on British troops having a campaign of terror in NI. Personnel themselves have spoken about how they would shoot random individuals (nationalists) to terrorise. I would regard the grey area of supporting Loyalist terrorism and/or the flow of information as similar.

Hillsborough took a couple of decades to come to justice. That was with a police cover up on it's own. With NI, you have the extra barrier of a political cover up as well which will probably never be exposed. Without any whataboutery, the families of these individuals who were murdered by the state itself or with state complicity never receiving any justice or even proper acknowledgement of how much collusion there is/was.

The murders of Pat Finucane and Rosemary Nelson are alleged to be political assassinations with the collusion of the state. There is a kibosh on their investigation.

Very interesting column, howabout, thanks for linking. Without wishing to sound like your stalker, I was just thinking that I hadn't noticed you much on the Westminstender threads recently - welcome back .

It might be argued that troops were last used during the miners strike and the battle of Orgreave. There were reports of 'Police' who had no numbers. I suspect that we might not learn the truth about whether this was so, for a long time.

twitter.com/_elultimomono/status/923437115685384192