Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

I didn’t much take to him when he first landed at Westminster, & immediately started banging on about disabled facilities - “forced to miss Commons debates because he has nowhere to sit” & no accessible hotels closer than Hammersmith (really???)

James Cleverly made a tweet last night which gave me the distinct impression that he'd pissed off a load of MPs of different persuasions and didn't have too many friends in parliament.

I didn't know whether to comment on it, because it wasn't explicit. It was something about the tone of Cleverly tweet. He's generally fairly reasonable though he does tweet bollocks. It struck me as genuinely pissed off on a personal level, rather than simply political opportunism

James Cleverly‏*@JamesCleverly*

Since being elected Jared O'Mara has asked only 3 written questions, no oral questions, made no speeches but has insulted almost everyone.

Note 'since elected'.

If its a political pop, then its a far easier to swipe at the more obvious. This tweet wasn't about that. This was a grievance on a different level.

I did wonder what had sparked it. It makes more sense in the context of your post. Perhaps he has been difficult - with reason - over his disability issues, but the tweet struck me as being about having a more general attitude problem rather than over a particular issue.

Its building up to a picture where he's complained about the facilities, whined about how he has engage with constituents on a Friday and this messes up his social life, made excuses and just done fuck all work.

And THEN there's the scandal on top of it.

Thanks Lapdance for linking the stuff wrt to Jared. Massive arsehole.

The description of Jared O'Mara reminds me of a Tory MP who got into the HoC in 1979. He was completely useless as an MP, the story went that people in the Parliamentary watering holes would buy him drinks just to see what dreadful stuff he would come out with, and he hacked off so many people in the constituency that he managed to lose the seat at the subsequent 1983 election, when the swing to the Tories was even greater, if I recall correctly, than in 1979.

And all in the days before social media - though in a rural constituency with a very effective jungle telegraph.

If you have pissed off everyone, as he seems to have, then when scandals pops up you find yourself hung out to dry with no friends to support you. I suspect if O'Mara had been more popular he would have had much more MPs running to his defence.

As it is I imagine he is likely to get the boot so labour can all tell themselves how they are strong on dealing with nasty types. In the circumstances it is rather handy for Corbyn to have someone he can chuck out for this sort of thing and nobody loudly complaining. It will allow him to suggest that May follow his example and suspend Boris forthwith.

There is a lesson here about being nice and making friends. You never know when you might need them.

Clearly, anyone racist, misogynistic or homophobic in Parliament needs to be exposed, called out and generally dealt with. I'm tired of waiting for misogyny and sexism to stop happening. But obviously we don't just want men to stop being sexist because they think it might be an obstacle in their future career. We want all men, including those in power, to just treat all people, including women, decently, respectfully and kindly.
Well, we live in hope.
I'm just a bit anxious the O'Mara furore will take the spotlight off other outrageous things that are happening politically, plus other men in government who seem to get away with awful behaviour. Anna Soubry has dozens of comments on her tweet of people saying some Tories are responsible for the same.

mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/922839449796521985

immediately started banging on about disabled facilities

This is a shame on so many levels. He was one of the first MPs with cerebral palsy in parliament?

Everyone's got hay to make out of this one, including Cleverly. Maybe by name but not by nature judging from the sexual incontinence of his mate and sponsor.

This young man was clearly out of his depth, with a back catalogue of pretty normal white male sexist baggage.

The SWP have not previously held conventional political office for a reason, they are not very good at it.

He is not the first white man I've heard of being overtly sexist and homophobic though.

Imagine if a man was elected to high office who refused to acknowledge fatherhood of children he'd sired extra maritally? Or a man who was under investigation for rape and child abuse, but was still in high office? Or a man who had an extra curricular affair and put his wife through that and the indignity of the press intrusion afterwards. I still love Jane Ashdown's cool response to media intrusion following pants down's misdemeanours. The list is endless, with the obvious perpetrators, never mind the legislative sexism the tories and their allies have voted through.

When actual sexual abuse is conflated with idiotic entitled white male behaviour, there's trouble at t'gender mill.

Duncan Weldon‏ @DuncanWeldon

1. Bank of England looks set to hike next week.

And yes, inflation is high but growth is weak & real incomes are being squeezed.

1. Message from the Bank since August has been clear: we expect weak growth, squeezed incomes and, oh, if we are right - we’ll have to hike.
2. Why the shift from the Bank? Possibly worries about “financial stability” (polite way of saying “bubbles”) but more likely...
3. They’ve become pessimistic on the supplyside of the UK economy. They think the 10yr weakness of productivity growth isn’t temporary -
4. It’s here to stay (in their view). Growth since 2010 has relied on using up spare capacity but with unemployment ultra-low -
5. That spare capacity has been eroded. Without productivity growth, then we will soon (again in the view of the MPC as I see it) face -
6. Rising price pressures. This is grim. It’s the equivalent of saying today’s weak growth is “as good as it gets”.
7. I don’t understand what made the Bank swerve to this view. But it’s where they think we are - and it’s a defendable position.
8. Macro policy is usually about trade offs. And the terms of those trade offs in the U.K. look grim. (Ends).

10. When I said the thread was done, that was fake news. There’s a huge outstanding question. 11. Is next week’s hike “one and done”? I.e. is it just reversing last August’s cut or the start of a (v gradual) hiking cycle? 12. (And actually ends) - if it’s driven by supplyside pessimism then it’s the start of a cycle not a one-off. 13. Bonus 13th tweet: buying the pound in response to a deterioration in the UK supplyside outlook is, well, “brave”.

Hester you just posted much more elegantly the general gist of what I wanted to say.

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/25/eu-to-probe-uks-anti-tax-avoidance-schemes-for-multinationals?CMP=share_btn_tw

EU to investigate UK tax loophole for multinationals
Inquiry to centre on George Osborne’s 2013 rule change that allows resident multinationals to shift income offshore

Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner, will announce on Thursday that she is opening an in-depth investigation into a UK tax scheme that exempts multinationals from anti-tax avoidance measures. Officials think the special exemption for multinationals may break EU competition rules by allowing them to pay less tax than domestic-only rivals.

The inquiry centres on a change to the UK’s “controlled foreign company” rules announced by the then chancellor, George Osborne, in 2011. The new rules were described by one expert at the time as a huge change, which meant companies could assume they were exempt from the anti-avoidance rules unless specifically caught.

The rule change, which came into force in 2013, means a multinational company resident in the UK can lower its tax bill by shifting some taxable income to an offshore corporation, known as a “controlled foreign company”. CFCs are offshore subsidiaries that multinationals use to move capital around their global operations.

CFCs are not illegal, but the commission believes the UK setup breaks EU competition rules, by giving an unfair advantage to multinationals, compared with British companies without foreign subsidiaries.

Tom Newton DunnVerified account @tnewtondunn
Full reversal just issued on Brexit before a Parliament vote by David Davis. Another day, another self-inflicted Tory wound.

Otto English‏

Retweeted Tom Newton Dunn
Whisper it but I've heard that David Davis no longer believes in Brexit

James Savage‏
Interesting. Credible source? Do you believe it? If true, will be interesting to see how he acts.

Otto English‏ Replying
Yes.

Captain Haddock‏
Funnily enough you’re 2nd person I’ve heard that from.

Maybe we know who Richard North's JDD is?

I had wondered...the J being for Joke.
But no, couldn't be, too well informed and coherent.

mighty JDD said the ration books were printed where the money was - my bad, not Royal Mint !

He is certainly taking risks - both he and North say he was questioned by police, but released.

I gather JDD was taken on last year specifically for Brexit, after an earlier business or civl service career, so may not be on the standard civil service contract. Official Secrets Act would apply though.

Most civil servants are kept in order by threat of losing their job or pension

However, JDD has said he is not dependent on pay or pension, as he has comfortable independent means (plus a title he never used)
He is senior, about 2nd secretary level, probably with trade expertise that is in short supply there.

He could stretch his luck too far;
however, especially after his "authorised" remark, I suspect he is being used by a Perm Sec or even a minister to leak what they want, alongside his own comments
Maybe a 5th column working for Flexcit ?

I am surprised more civil servants aren't leaking

• iirc DexEU already had 25% staff turnover, but there have only been a few scattered reports of despair at the task and DD's ignorance.

I expect it is pay & pension keeping them quiet, but many are covering themselves with an eye to the Chilcott-style enquiry expected within a few years

'Intergalactic space lord' Lord Buckethead has offered to lead Brexit negotiations

His fame has reached Germany

http://www.businessinsider.de/election-hero-lord-buckethead-has-agreed-to-lead-brexit-negotiations-2017-6?r=UK&IR=T

Lord Buckethead, who according to his Twitter bio
enjoys "planet-conquering, dominating inferior species, and Lovejoy,"
made an appearance on Oliver's show Last Week Tonight
....
"is it an absurd idea? Yes.
But it would not even be close to the stupidest thing that you [Theresa May] have ever done."
< unfortunately true >

Maidenhead voters could have save us a lot of grief if they'd chosen his lordship instead

• his manifesto was miles better than hers too.

Otto English‏
Whisper it but I've heard that David Davis no longer believes in Brexit

That's actually the impression I've got from Davis on more than one occasion since the election but didn't know if it was a political ploy or not.

Interesting that there is speculation about it though.

I remember the Clive Ponting trial after the Falklands War.
He was a senior MOD civil servant who leaked documents about the Belgrano sinking to Labour MP Tam Dalyell
That was only secret because it would have embarassed the Tory govt
... wait, like with Brexit leaks

imo, Ponting seemed totally shocked that he could be prosecuted, at his rank
(I was rather disgusted that he first tried to blame his secretary)

So maybe it will be DD who has to face the nation and say
" um,... sorry about this, but um .... < big sheepish grin > Brexit won't actually work out"

DD looked and sounded ill today. Not nice what they're (May and her 'cabinet', or the cast) being put through. Must be scary.
Moggers looked sad, Ian Dunt pointed out.

DD has apparently said he won't stand again.

Michael Crick‏ @MichaelLCrick
BREAKING. Labour confirm Jared O’Mara wasn’t interviewed when picked for Hallam. They just took decision on paper cos wasn’t then a Lab seat

Ivan Rogers to Treasury Committee

(UK ambassador to EU, forced to resign for being so negtive)

http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/b1f2aa76-ab15-40ce-9602-bb81badab525

"My point about trade deals … is that they are inordinately complex, legal, lengthy documents.
They often run to thousands of pages.

There is no way that an EU-UK trade deal as comprehensive as the one I think we'll want to strike will be done in under a couple of thousand pages.
Those couple of thousand pages are not going to be legally baked and done by October 2018.
No chance".

"Arron, what first attracted you to the now, multi billionaire Vlad? You were in such a financial pickle yourself in 2014 before you had a run of unexplained financial good fortune?"

Putin and his inner circle valued at nearly £18bn but report finds 'no obvious explanation for their hidden wealth'

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wealth-russia-president-investigation-24-billion-novaya-gazeta-a8019971.html

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/25/brexit-transition-period-likely-limited-20-months-eu-officials-say?CMP=share_btn_tw
Brexit transition period likely to be limited to 20 months, EU officials say
Exclusive: Despite Theresa May’s request for two-year transition Brussels sources say exit date likely to be 31 December 2020

The Tories can string out a no-deal without Parliament being able to prevent this ... other than by bringing down the govt

However, if a deal is quickly cobbled together - boilerplate, without special terms the Uk want - note that Rogers confirmed the October 2018 deadline, which is required to allow time for E27 ratification.

Even this govt would be hard put to deny the UK parliament a vote, when the EU parliament, the 27 member parliaments, the regional parliaments are voting - Walloon again !