Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

The EU will not want to be held responsible for trouble kicking off again in N.I.
WTAF? Why would the EU be responsible, rather than the UK? Typical leaver thinking.

The Uk can decide exactly whatever import tariffs they wish to charge, unhindered by any 'club membership' rules.

False. Assuming this quote is supposed to apply to a future UK outside the EEA/singlemarket/EU. b/c UK would then be in the WTO.

The WTO has RULES about limits of tariffs and taxes that members can impose. So UK would switch from following EU rules to following WTO rules. In EU we only had to negotiate with 27 other countries. In WTO, a mere 150+ other members to deal with. Like EU, the WTO rule-making follows a "everyone has to consent" process to setting new rules for individual members.

Post-Brexit, under WTO rules, without free trade agreements, the UK MUST impose minimum & maximum tariffs on imported products. I've heard estimates of 12-25% on avg (Reuters article saying up to 46% on specific food items -- and I do mean food not booze). It really wouldn't be crazy to stock up on Parmesian cheese before March 2019.

Obviously UK would try to move fast to reduce those default import tariffs... or would we? Look how fast the current negotiations are moving, after all.

Why can’t you just be more positive lljkk?

"All carolines suggestions rely on us having the same terms as we had whilst in the Single Market, "

Bear, show me one. Any one, and then talk me through why you believe what youve just said.

Or are you jumping on the conflating band wagon again, that people who sell goods into the EU have to comply with EU standards and pay whatever taxes and tariffs the EU demand? Well yes. Helloo. (Please let this be a squishy VAT penny dropping moment.......)

Let me talk you through it. Lets say, Tetley tea sell into Carrefour................

lljkk - I think Caroline was suggesting we reduce the tariffs not increase them. Anyway, do the US trade by WTO rules? How come they can suggest charging 300% on an aircraft?

Not true lljkk. The WTO does not have minimum tariffs.

Following Brexit, under WTO rules, the UK will be entirely free to adopt its own import tariffs and other requirements related to the import of goods.
We will however, have to submit, a schedule of import tariffs and other restrictions (if applied) and a schedule of whats called market access commitments, (see the 'dumping' link as an example of one area this applies to).

Maybe Ill feel compelled to go into great reams re WTO tomorrow, but to be frank, I clearly lost some of the audience here at 'tea bags, prefering the usual personal insults weve come to know and love.

Corcory, I thought Id very patiently (yet again) walked through how 'stuff' works. If youre interested, Spin wrote a really excellent short description on the Politics board, an answer to, 'Will the UK have to pay?'
If youve not picked it up, its a great explanation. None of us are perfect, (though Howabout is a really sharp cookie) and over simplifying is inherent with dangers (especially with pit bulls around), but we are trying, as to be frank, some of the rubbish on MN re Brexit is criminal and the scaremongering particularly, has a very nasty edge. Theres genuine concern, which we all acknowledge, then theres filling peoples heads with unfounded rubbish purely for shits and giggles.

Please do report the criminal posts on MN to the police, Carolines.

And "scaremongering with a nasty edge" should be reported to MNHQ as if it is that bad it will be against talk guidelines and they will delete it. Just like they deleted some of your opinions on Ireland on prior threads.

Just out of interest, Caroline, where are tetley sourcing their tea leaves from? Presumably, not the uk. If so, how does the exchange rate affect the price of tea? What tariffs will be applied to the imported tea leaves?

I know you're trying to simplify things, but it not very reassuring when you use an example and leave out half of the story. After all, the concern here is regarding supply chains, not just trading the end product.

Yes, Regulatory bodies are independent from the EU but they increasingly use EU based networks and systems. Of course we can replace these when we exit but do you have any idea how onerous this is? How much money it will cost to disentangle ourselves from every EU directive and network just to replicate it again? Such a pointless waste of time and money, it will suck up time and funds for years to come and likely increase the regulatory burden on individual companies. Still, if that's what you think is the best use of public money in this country then go wild. I've stopped trying to make any economical sense of Brexit, it's purely political imo.

All carolines suggestions rely on us having the same terms as we had whilst in the Single Market

Bear, show me one. Any one, and then talk me through why you believe what youve just said.

caroline, I was quoting corcory when I used the word 'suggestions' which was actually conflating fucking hate that word it with 'opinions'

My main issue with your posts is you never actually make 'suggestions' on how things could work, just endlessly offer 'opinions' on how there's no need for a border in NI or increased border controls on the mainland.

If walking away from negiotiations and just charging whatever tariffs we like is so easy why haven't we done it?

Why can't you answer my question about the precedent set by us having frictionless trade with EU once outside the SM?

What about trade that isn't covered by WTO?

FaithHopeCharityDesperation. I’m used to some of them just swooping in to take the piss out of my spelling. It’s a form of bullying of course and I’m embarrassed for them.
I’d far rather be a crap speller than a pathetic bullying arse.

The idea that the UK can do well out of WTO only rules also relies on certain assumptions. The Minford model was based on a much lower EU tariff than currently exists. He apparently believes that some sort of international pressure will cause the EU to reduce its external tariff by a considerable amount, which is a rather large assumption to make.

The UK has pretty much said it have to remain part of EU agencies (assuming they allow us to) for some years after any exit from the EU as we currently have neither the time nor the expertise to create our own agencies. After Brexit, the Minford model also assumes that the EU will have a set of agreed regulations with the UK, which can only be arranged as part of a "deal".

I'd far rather be a crap speller than a pathetic bullying arse.

That's unfortunate because when you throw in crap like:
In an ideal world, I’d love all diehard remainers to be sent off to live on an island somewhere - isle of white or talk about traitors you kind of come across as both.

It's an irregular verb Humps.

You’re missing the key word which was ALL - I wasn’t picking on one particular person to try & humility & embarrass them.
Highlighting my spelling mistakes is picking on me as an individual and is therefore a form of bullying.
Most people would get that

How dare you!

Ok so bullying of a group is acceptable, pointing out spelling/grammar mistakes of An individual is not.

Thanks for clarifying, surfer.

Boshy, youre right about tea of course, but lets just get the basics first, Im struggling to even get those across. (Not helped by examples like below from Sky news,

Why would any eu based regulatory body need replacing? Staying simple, all non-eu suppliers importing into the EU abide by EU regs and standards, they fulfill their compliance requirements. They dont do that by creating their own. For example, if you wish to import food from Brazil, you require an EU import licence. Obtaining the licence demonstrates you understand the what rules apply. All importers from any country have to do this. A Uk supplier today, has an EU import licence.

Where this gets confused, is people making the assumption, the UK would demand different rules and regs from EU suppliers into the UK. Why would they? Most regs are WTO regs and the UK sits on most european regulatory boards, not to mention the WTO boards.

@Carolinesbeanies, actually I am fascinated by the WTO situation. So I'd love anyone to go into reams of detail here. Please go into heaps of detail but you have to write it in plain English. I am happy to be corrected.

Everything I read about WTO rules is LOTS of rules, which in practice means customised rules about the tariff options available to each country. WTO expert on Radio4 right now, saying in absence of specific agreements "you have to treat imports exactly the same as domestically made products." and "you have to treat imports from all countries exactly the same". I gather the tariffs can work by category.

Many paragraphs about the initial negotiations UK would have to undertake with WTO. Must work out out how much of EU's production quotas UK could have, post-Brexit. Probably UK will try to start with the same import duties (and regional trade agreements) that EU has currently (if partner RTA countries agree to that, they aren't obliged to agree). After that UK could start the process of negotiating with all 160 WTO members for changes in tariffs & trade agreements.

Of course tariff rates may not be very important, compared to tariff quotas, product standardisation, safety standards and financial services. I imagine UK will keep all EU regulations & product standards, for convenience, even though we will have negligible input into how they develop in future. I can't get my head around what happens if City of London loses passporting.

Since WTO is so delayed in dealing with disputes, the UK could get away with cowboy behaviour for a 4-5 yrs, like Russia.

I guess at end of the day WTO is just a dispute resolution group.
If you spend time on WTO website, can see status of thousands of disputes. Seems like many have been stuck "in consultation" stage for many years. I thought WTO could levy large fines, but I'm guessing that is rare, so lots of cowboy behaviour is possible.

you're right about tea of course, but lets just get the basics first, Im struggling to even get those across

No, you're ignoring the problems as ever.

You’re missing the key word which was ALL - I wasn’t picking on one particular person to try & humility & embarrass them.

Making it all of a group doesn't make it less bullying. It just makes it more discriminatory. If I suggested internment for all Tories, or all Scottish people, or all social workers, I would expect to put the back up of anyone in that group, and to de-rail the wider discussion. I think you got off very lightly for that comment.

The politico article Mother, jumps on a mass of half truths and hysteria. Seriously suggesting current products within the EU actually roll around the continent utterly unregulated, and that the regs only start to apply to outside suppliers? That must make you currently feel safe. Non-eu manufactured planes will indeed drop out of the sky, but only on a said 'trade' date?

This is the issue with going 'brexit armageddon', it utterly swamps discussion on where the true issues are.