Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Caroline may not be worried about potential customs delays, but Tim Waggott at the Port of Dover definitely is:

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/15/post-brexit-armageddon-dover-could-avoided-diverting-ships-east/

Tim Waggott, the head of the port of Dover, warned it was facing a possible "Armageddon scenario" of chronic delays and traffic congestion due to the risk of lengthy customs checks after Brexit.

Hes right about diverting. The same applies on the other side, bring Boulogne back as a key route.

This however, of course ignores the ridiculous situation that in the event of 'no deal', TM would more than likely mirror EU tariffs, and charge 4% on EU imports. What you have then, is Barnier and Davis explaining to the world, why when applying 'nett' taxes, all sides are having to jump through hoops and spend millions to accomodate 'egos'.

What Tim Waggot refers to, is indeed the exciting possibility of zero import tariffs. France and the EU hold up trade heading into the EU, (and spend the millions enforcing controls on the already higher priced goods in the first place) whilst the UK has an open door policy.

ABP is suggesting Free Ports - not Tim Waggott. Dover isn’t part of ABP.

And Free Ports aren’t completely zero import tariffs either - import tariffs could / would still apply for goods entering the domestic market.

Free trade zones could benefit the motor industry though, as it means that components can cross back and forth between the UK and the EU without incurring duties each time.

caroline every time someone tries to counter any of your points you patronisily bombard them with an information / link overload instead of recognising any possible problems and how they could be overcome.

Your 'facts' have been proven wrong before on these threads and if it were as simple as you claim, we wouldn't be in the position we are now.

You, and our negotiating team, are relying on us having the ability to carry on exactly as we were before.

I realise you think there's no reason why that can't happen, other than the EU being unreasonable, but the fact is, it's not going to happen.

Turn it round another way; if we get to trade on effectively the same terms as we had within the Single Market but without paying for it, what happens when other countries want the same?

If you have an answer to that I'd be overjoyed to hear it as it might mean there's a way out of this clusterfuck.

Others have kindly already provided supporting information that Caroline was demanding not that she'll read it it accept that it might be an issue

As she is so good at googling, I suggest she looks at what happens at the border between Norway and Sweden or Turkey and the EU.

I (and others) have already provided links on other threads. I can't be arsed doing it again for someone who is not prepared to acknowledge any problems, despite pesky experts and worried business owners pointing out the risks. **

"I'm pretty sure zero import tariffs would have to be the result of a deal, which we don't seem to be getting close to."

Absolutely not. The opposite is true. The Uk can decide exactly whatever import tariffs they wish to charge, unhindered by any 'club membership' rules. Thats Brexit. If they wish to allow all imports to enter the UK 'free', they can do.

Perhaps the grown ups are starting to see sense....or maybe someone has explained to Junker what 'no deal' means.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41684111

You know that echo chamber you are fond of mentioning caroline..........

If you actually watch the whole press conference, Junker makes it explicitly clear that he understands what "No deal" would entail. He's just not sure that the UK and its media understands what it means.

Bear I admire your patience and tenacity!

world I was so far down in the queue for patience it's untrue.

I'm just mightily pissed off with people like caroline who are refusing to see that there are problems that need addressing.

Our downfall will be our arrogance.

So Bear you are 'mightily pissed off with people like Caroline'!! But I can't see anywhere were you have explained exactly how Caroline's suggestions are wrong. Please explain?

I think a deal will eventually be thrashed out and we’ll leave. And that’s that.

What Falange said.
I concur.

Heavens, even the Guardian have been at the sherry today.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/20/theresa-may-resist-calls-walk-away-from-brexit-talks

I can't see anywhere were you have explained exactly how Caroline's suggestions are wrong. Please explain?

You only see what you want to see corcory

All carolines suggestions rely on us having the same terms as we had whilst in the Single Market, and that's not going there happen.

That's a pretty fundamental omission.

And she never ever answers, or even acknowledges, questions which ask her to address that fact.

falange - I’m sorry but that’s not good enough.
You have to explain exactly what deal is going to be thrashed out, exactly how long the thrashing will take ( & I mean to the minute ) and how this deal will effect every single person, animal, & organism in the U.K.

now please........< taps fingers >

affect

surferjet Of course you, as leave-voters, don't have to explain every detail like you suggest. But the government has to, and they're not. My personal opinion is that that's because various aspects of the UK is too entwined with the EU for Brexit to happen without significant pain and damage. (Certainly in the aspect I know the most about - Ireland and border issues - that is very much the case.) I understand that many leave voters think that it can be achieved without said significant pain and damage. But as the government is flailing around with no clue, that seems increasingly unlikely.

I really don’t think the EU will make things difficult regarding the N.I issue as they’re well aware of it’s history. I’m sure concessions will be made & a deal that works for everyone will be reached.
The EU will not want to be held responsible for trouble kicking off again in N.I.

As for EEA, IMO it's a compromise which moderate Leavers and Remainers would find acceptable. It wouldn't suit those who want to curb immigration

If we stay in the EEA then we would have more control over immigration to please those who wanted to leave. People from other EEA countries and Switzerland would need to be able to financially support themselves in some way before being granted the right to reside (this is theoretically true even now but the UK government has chosen not to implement restrictions on EEA migration).

The EU will not want to be held responsible for trouble kicking off again in N.I.

They wouldn't be.

We are the ones who want to leave.

Anything detrimental will be entirely our own fault no matter how much Leavers try to blame the EU for everything.

It's not the EU I'm worried about making it difficult for NI, surferjet. Our government and their bed buddies the DUP are the ones who might cause a major problem by crashing out without a deal. Or in many other ways. But that is the most immediate disaster on the horizon.

Why such a pedant with Surfer, Woman?

I never see you pick up fellow remainers on their dodgy SPaG.