Where have all the Brexiters gone?

[MsHooliesCardigan]

Just that really. 52% voted to leave. I know Mumsnet isn't completely representative of the electorate but you would expect at least a few people to be banging the Brexit drum. The ones that were quite vocal seem to have lost their voice. Perhaps they're just bored with the whole thing but their silence really is deafening.

Squishy,

"This was not intitally the UK's position though was it?"

They didnt have a position Squishy.

Youre being silly re the 'teleporter' squishy, but this...

"we develop a system in which the final destination of goods has to be checked as they enter NI, and somehow find a way of tracking those goods."

Again I come back to the UKs proposal, and why its actually quite sensible. I dont think remainers sometimes realise how thorough the current existing customs and transit systems in place are. But quite simply, because I dont want to spend an hour typing why and how the existing systems do work (Ive done that before on another thread sometime back, and it does get repetetive when remainers cant be bothered to find out or ignore it cause its long and boring), Ill go straight to the why its doable.

In short, (and Im certainly not an expert who could probably come up with another 5 or 6 options) there are 2 obvious options they could do. The biggest headache is in fact Irish goods travelling through the UK en route to europe. And vice versa. (Direct trade between Ireland and UK isnt that complex to resolve). The reason the trade route is so important is the quantity of food and perishable goods Ireland sells to Europe. Sending this stuff by sea, to avoid the UK, just isnt a viable option.

Option 1 could be the use of Authorised Economic Operators. (AEOs) Germany and Switzerland, Sweden and Norway use this type of arrangement. It allows businesses to send goods across borders with predetermined health and safety checks. Customs duties are paid quarterly which removes the need to check containers at borders, and both Irish and UK customs can do their random spot checks at any point en route.

Option 2 could indeed be sealed containers quite simply without checks. They use authorised agents who seal them, and authorised agents who unseal. 15 years ago I would have said this option was a non-starter, how many exporters have secured vehicles? What would be the cost to the vast majority of exporters upgrading their vehicles? etc. But today, due to the migrant crisis, the vast majority of exporters that traverse european routes, do indeed have secure units.

There are solutions out there, made a tad easier by the fact we are indeed islands, the issue currently, is clearly the lack of will to resolve them.

Goodness, youve changed your tune bear since the Sufficient progress on Irish border thread. How many posts was it berating Faith that a soft border was still FOM

Not at all, my discussions with faith were exactly the same, FOM applies to the 4 freedoms, people is the least problematic, but they all need a solution.

You really need to pay more attention to my posts rather than dismissing them out of hand if you are then going to quote me on them.

I don't care if you ignore my posts completely but in the last couple of days you've said that for the last year I have told posters I'm not going to read their replies, which is untrue, and now this.

Saying 'we need a flexible and imaginative solution' is simply saying 'we haven't got a clue how this is going to work unless you let us carry on a we were'

caroline, to save you looking through all the posts, check out my one on Wednesday 27th Sept at 18.29 on the 'sufficient progress' thread to see that my position was the same then.

Global banks and international bond strategists have been left stunned by revised ONS figures showing that Britain is £490bn poorer than had been assumed and no longer has any reserve of net foreign assets, depriving the country of its safety margin as Brexit talks reach a crucial juncture.

A massive write-down in the UK balance of payments data shows that Britain's stock of wealth - the net international investment position - has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn. This transforms the outlook for sterling and the gilts markets. "Half a trillion pounds has gone missing. This is equivalent to 25pc of GDP." said Mark Capleton, UK rates strategist at Bank of America.

Making matters worse, foreign direct investment (FDI) by companies is plummeting. It fell from a £120bn surplus in the first half 2016 to a £25bn deficit over the same period this year.

The above post is from the Telegraph .

One in five FTSE 100 ­defined benefit pension schemes would be at risk of failure if Britain entered ­another economic downturn, research reveals

In a “stressed” scenario – such as a recession – the combined pension deficits of the blue-chip index would jump by £100bn, equivalent to four years of pre-tax profits, according to a study by consultants Cardano and Lincoln Pensions.

In such a scenario a fifth of FTSE 100 firms would face pension risks worth 30pc or more of their market value, making widespread scheme failure more likely.

Also from the Telegraph .

The biggest headache is in fact Irish goods travelling through the UK en route to europe.

This is not news - people have been saying that for months. We also know that Brexit has a good chance of crippling the Irish economy. Not that many people in the UK gave much thought to that either when they voted or give much thought to it now.

That Telegraph article is extraordinary in more ways that one.

Looking in from the outside it does seem that the tide is turning, both in terms of public acceptance (rising cost of living clearly having an impact - it's the economy, stupid), and political concern about the size of the economic risk that is being taken.

I cant read the full article (paywalled Frumpety) but this is the revision to ONS estimates on the blue book estimates. Its a tad misleading saying 'half a trillion has gone missing", it hasnt in real terms but original estimates (the method the ONS use to calculate) by the ONS have been readjusted. We have this every so often when they find 'new' ways to calculate all sorts, and the timing is interesting. My guess, over the next 2 or 5 years and Brexit, youre about to see positive increases from this appalling new baseline? Heavens, is that cynical, even for me a leaver? Just my thoughts when a paper write down like this happens .......

"or give much thought to it now"

And how were they or are they supposed to give much thought Peregrina? Clearly when asked to vote on something, the actual options given are possible? Isnt that a reasonable assumption for any voter?

One of the biggest complaints about the EU, was that many did indeed say, member states are "prisoners". The EU said, no your not, we're a democratic organisation, of course you can leave if tou wanted to. The UK government said we can leave. Please vote. Why berate a voter for personally not deciding trade, or constitutional issues in advance. Either its possible to leave or not. Did the EU say if the UK votes leave, then Ireland must leave too?

PS Squishy, your chinese postal analogy is flawed. The reason your chinese purchase may be held up currently, is because youve bought it online tax and VAT free. Far more Chinese goods get through unchecked, than get stopped, which is why youre able to do it. Its a gamble though, but not one your chinese sellers bothered about, hes got your money, you get to sort out the 'faff' if it is checked. The 'faff' on the other hand with say a German seller selling to you, EU to EU, is currently with your seller not you, which is why it appears faff free for you the buyer. It isnt.
He charges you VAT for example, you pay him, he pays his government. His government is very interested in his online transactions, just as our government is very interested in ours.

.......but yes, (just back to VAT) IF the UK government did away with VAT, then yes any goods then bought from Germany for example as well, too become VAT free, whereas Irish citizens would still be paying the VAT. Your post office trip would be negligible compared to the queues in your NI supermarket. Its utterly unworkable, which is why Id bet my months salary that the UK will retain VAT.

Tarifs and compliance are dealt with differently, and isnt the responsibility of you the consumer.

On the ONS they are in danger of losing what little credibility and veneer of "independence" they ever had. First they lent credibility to the Osborne Project Fear by rubber stamping projections. Then they proclaimed uncontrolled immigration had little effect on wages. Then when post Ref Project Fear failed to materialise they revised their productivity estimates for the last 7 years - didn't bother to point out the impact this has on the modelling of the impact of low wage immigration effects. Now the actual budget deficit is not moving in line with Project Fear projections they use the new productivity modelling to keep pushing down the future estimates to their Fear end point. Obvs they have just looked at the capital account and felt the need to perform the same sort of jiggery pokery. (3 kids at home and a pile of ironing to contemplate whether my ONS suspicions stack up).

Nice to see both sides of the issues being debated again even if everyone is a bit ranty.

Either its possible to leave or not.

Of course it's possible to leave. What's not possible is to retain the benefits of frictionless trade.

It does make me think of the DWP National Insurance numbers issued issue too Howabout, and employment..........

Caroline are you saying the figures are incorrect or the way the figures have been collated is incorrect ? What about the FDI , is that something you would have expected anyway during this period of uncertainty ?

I think it is the fact that it is the Telegraph who are reporting it , although in the past the business section always seemed to be generally pragmatic , that made me stop for a moment .

I think that what Caroline is saying is that some of this may be an artefact to do with the way data is collated - and that could be true.

OTOH leavers won't want to address the FDI numbers. With my industry hat on (I'm an economist for a big company that makes stuff) I would say this is completely unsurprising and consistent with what one can observe in RL ie investment in the UK is being deferred or is simply going elsewhere.

The half a trillion comment was made by the UK rates strategist for Bank of America . So either he was quoted out of context , he believes the figures are correct or has some nefarious reason for pretending the figures are correct .

Clearly when asked to vote on something, the actual options given are possible? Isnt that a reasonable assumption for any voter?

It may be a reasonable assumption, but it did not happen with the Referendum. Did we see Johnson standing in front of a big red bus with 'Consider the GFA - Peace in N Ireland' written on it?

Rate strategists always have "nefarious" reasons for the comments they make.

Point 9 of the ONS bulletin covers the changes to the methodology.

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/quarterlysectoraccounts/apriltojune2017

Couple of blog pieces musing on the significance or otherwise and poking a wee bit of fun at The Telegraph.

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/10/16/oops-490-billion-has-done-awol/

notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2017/10/16/has-the-uk-just-lost-490-billion-as-claimed-in-the-daily-telegraph/

And for the real anoraks the link to the underlying data showing the improvement in the net position since Q1 2016 under the revised methodology.

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/datasets/unitedkingdomeconomicaccountsbalanceofpaymentsinternationalinvestment

Worth noting that the nature of the gross figures is such that quarterly fluctuations in the 100s of billions are normal.

"It may be a reasonable assumption, but it did not happen with the Referendum"

Yes it did. The whole point of the referendum was two choices that were possible. Not one choice we can do, and the other, well actually we cant. The question of whether we could or we couldnt was answered in the Referendum Act.

I know youre happier steering things back to the campaigns, the calibre of voters etc and comfier debating ground, but you cant rewrite the basics. The campaigns were shit on both sides, but the question was a valid one.

Frumpety, I think howabouts really informative post, answers your questions. I didnt know any background to this, apart from the workings of the ONS, oh and the media, that weve all come to know and love.

Do they need to keep banging the Brexit drum, the referendum is over?

I know youre happier steering things back to the campaigns, the calibre of voters etc and comfier debating ground, but you cant rewrite the basics.

You know nothing of the sort. If someone doesn't agree with you, you seem unable to discuss, but usually ridicule or make assumptions like the above.

The whole Referendum was not one which was amenable to a yes/no answer. Very few questions in life are. If it had been there would have been substantially more progress than we have seen over the last 16 months.