Where have all the Brexiters gone?

[MsHooliesCardigan]

Just that really. 52% voted to leave. I know Mumsnet isn't completely representative of the electorate but you would expect at least a few people to be banging the Brexit drum. The ones that were quite vocal seem to have lost their voice. Perhaps they're just bored with the whole thing but their silence really is deafening.

caroline I think most people acknowledge the border issue in NI is more problematic for goods than people but I have several questions

• if there is no hard border between the U.K. and the EU, how are people who voted solely to 'get control of or borders' going to react

• it's not just VAT that is the issue with goods, its tariffs, country of original, customs checks etc so how can that be managed without a hard border

• what does Croatia have to do with any of this?

Caroline without passport checks, how do you know if the people travelling across a border are Irish, British, or another nationality?

I have already told you that the Croatian border involves checkpoints and passport checks. Not just for tourists - for everyone (how could you tell the difference anyway without a border check?)

"For some reason the EU believe that for the first time in almost 100 years (clearly excluding the troubles, WW2 etc) and for the sole purpose of 'negotiation', Irish and NI citizens shouldnt have the right to travel freely without passports between the two. "

This just isn't true!

There was agreement between the EU and UK that the common travel area between the islands would continue - initially, Britain wanted this restricted to British and Irish passport holders only but have luckily moved on this position. Again - if you restrict movement to some nationalities, you have to check everybody's passport, so I am glad we have accepted this.

The issues around free movement of goods is not just restricted to problems over VAT but...

"However, its never been suggested, its never been proposed, it certainly wasnt a basis or promise of the leave campaign"

There were loads of promises made about VAT by leave campaigners!

Faith your post makes perfect sense, and I suspect that I am much closer to you in position than I am to most leave posters.

I agree that we have made some concessions already - I am very pleased to see some of these (like the one I mentioned in my previous post to Caroline) because I thought that our initial position was wrong.

You may be right about some of the politics of making concessions - however you mentioned the implementation period. Are the UK negotiators and government actually united in wanting this? I got the impression that if it was declared that such an implementation period was happening (depending on the shape of it I suppose) the hardline brexiteers would make trouble. I know that TM has mentioned it, but surely the devil is in the details (as always!) I think we need to be pragmatic about what we expect from it - we cannot expect all the benefits of membership without continuing to pay and have the responsibilities of membership during this transition period. It would be nice if we could, but if that's what the negotiators are essentially asking for, the EU wont agree. And you could paint this as the EU turning down a request for an implementation period, but the request has to be reasonable if it has a chance of succeeding.

*Sorry to labour the point faith but what have we shown were willing to be flexible on?

We need an implementation period, that's not us backing down, it's us not having made preparations to avoid needing a transition period.*

S’ok Bear - the nuance of what I mean is being lost in being just text, rather than a conversation (and my wording/phrasing probably isn’t accurate).

By ‘willing to be flexible’ I mean - both sides have been posturing politically; the U.K. & Leave in particular (Nigel Farage is case in point, but actual MPs as well) have been presenting a front of ‘we’re not budging - we want cake & eat it & we won’t take anything less’ sort of thing.
Then over the course of negotiations so far there’s been a sort of ‘oh, well yes, we could probs compromise on x’ (totally expected, but it’s the political theatre).
Thus - it creates the narrative of ‘we may have been a bit hardline initially, but we’re totes on board now with a bit of give & take’.

Re the implementation period - of course we need one - we always knew we needed one - but the stupid dance that has to be done (because the EU project is not just trade, it’s political) means that:
U.K. says: ‘no implementation period’
EU: we’re not budging & you’re being very silly, the clock’s ticking
U.K.: no
EU: tick tock
U.K.: ummm - we’d like to have an implementation period if that’s ok?
EU: well, we’ll think about it

Both sides know that there has to be one - it’s in both our interests & to not do so would be silly - but the narrative that has been facilitated is that:

To the EU 27, the EU is calling the shots
To U.K. electorate: TM et al are being pragmatic when necessary.

Sorry squishy, I replied to Bear’s post before reading yours - but I said what my perception of the implementation period thing was in my response to her anyway.

I have to say, this is only my take on what’s been happening so far - but I think other Leavers think like me & that’s why there’s no stressing or worrying if you see what I mean - the proper stuff hasn’t really started yet, only the posturing.
(Both EU & U.K.)

There’s every chance I’m totally misguided though....!!

I see what you're saying faith but I just think it's twattish behaviour to go in all guns blazing then have to be seen to concede on something that is entirely of our own doing.

The phrase 'pick your battles' springs to mind.

I agree Bear.

I wish Politics was more grown up at every level - it’s ridiculous.

Each ‘side’ are as bad as the other though - especially wrt the U.K. parties - it wouldn’t have killed them to work together & then Juncker’s an arse obvs.

The implementation period is pretty critical though.
Because if all of this posturing is just posturing, then it has wasted a lot of time.
I hope that you're assessment of what is happening is correct - my fear is that although this may be how many politicians both within the UK and the EU might see it, it doesn't mean that this transition period will materialise. It is high risk and I worry about the possibility of us leaving with no deal, and no transition period by accident.
And while you say "of course we need one" I do worry that it is not so obvious to everyone.
And some of those initial positions we backed down on should never have been our position in the first place - not just unreasonable and a waste of time, some of them made us look like we lacked a firm grasp of the issues at stake.

No matter what the EU are doing, I really dislike some of the needless antagonism towards the EU that has come from some of the most prominent leavers since the vote. I don't think this willy waving helps at all in negotiations, and if it accomplishes anything at all politically then it is not to the benefit of the UK as a whole, but is entirely for the benefit of those individuals, to make them look "tough" and "more Brexit than thou". It reminds me of the ludicrous trash talk before a boxing/wrestling match.

To U.K. electorate: TM et al are being pragmatic when necessary.
I would suggest that only a certain sector of the UK electorate would take that view. The rest of us are bemused, appalled and embarrassed by TM et al's behaviour.

twofingers I do take Faith's point that they might intend it to be read as TM being pragmatic and compromising, while allowing both sides to save face. However I join you in being bemused, appalled and embarrassed.

@Frumpty

Has the Government made public its own impact assessments yet ? They seem to be very reluctant to do so , can't imagine why though

Are you being deliberately thick? The impact assessment will tell the Uk government which bits to negotiate hardest on and which bits not to. It is effectively setting the bottom lines for each element. You don't show your negotiation strategy to the opposition ever. No matter how much you want to see this to gloat over it is vital it doesn't get released to the EU. The Opfor will have its own assessment, but you don't tell them where they are right or wrong otherwise they will deny anything on the areas you need and shaft you on the areas you can give ground on.

There are some good beginner books on negotiating if you want some suggestions for further reading.

@Barebehind
I haven't disappeared but I was rather hoping things had progressed. I can see that the noddy list of points for remaining that was provided was fisked by Caroline and your comments in return were that you couldn't be bothered to understand what she had written due to formatting issues. It was pretty bloody clear to be honest so I assumed you just refused to engage further in the debate. I said as much.

Was busy baking banana and currant bread this morning for our visitors today. Potato cake is on the list for next weekend... :-)

They're not haggling over a used car WD.
Which books would you recommend?
"Opfor" is a bit dramatic, isn't it? Who does it refer to - just the EU? Or other members of the government? Because it is not just being kept away from the public; very few MPs have seen any of the impact assessments.

And given that we have been told so many times how much worse a hard brexit will be for the EU than Britain, are either the EU or the UK preparing economic impact assessments of different Brexits on the EU? Should we be?

Are you being deliberately thick?
Why be so rude and arrogant?

David davis wrote a book on negotiating ...i think its out of print now

That's a shame.
On a lighter note, I cannot hear his voice on the radio without immediately thinking of the "Brexit bulldog out" impression from dead ringers.

How massively unreasonable of people to want to know what impact Brexit is likely to have on them! I mean, why on earth could you possibly want to know that or think that if studies have been paid for WITH YOUR MONEY you might have both an interest in seeing them and a right to do so.

"No matter how much you want to see this to gloat over it is vital it doesn't get released to the EU."

The data used for making impact assessments are publicly available. The EU have done their own, as have many other people (academics, the World Bank, the Scottish govt.). Everyone knows the results are dire, particularly for some sectors / regions, even under the "Norway" model. The only reason the govt. are not releasing them is the impact it would have on public opinion, i.e. of the govt saying that their own analysis shows that Brexit will have a huge negative impact on the country (millions of jobs lost under a "WTO" Brexit, for instance).

"Caroline without passport checks, how do you know if the people travelling across a border are Irish, British, or another nationality?"

Exactly as it works now for 167 nations. The UK border is in effect in Dublin, and the Irish border is in effect in Dover. Lets try this.

There is no border between Ireland and NI, yet Vladimir from Russia with his UK visa only is absolutely physically free to wander across to Ireland where, it must be noted, a UK visa is not accepted. Theres not even a signpost telling him hes leaving one for the other.

They do do spot checks, but the reason its not a political issue is what on earth is he going to do? Hes there illegally, but what can our Vlad do? He cant work. He cant get any state support. He cant open a bank account. He cant leave via Ireland. Does he change his name, work illegaly, never needing healthcare and never leave the island again? (As once his UK visa expires and hes not left the UK, hes on the naughty list). His only way out, is the same way he got in, via NI and the UK on a valid UK visa.

Youre conflating the CTA for the wrong purposes. The CTA in one form or another has been in force pretty much since the 1920s. What the current CTA (that you refer to) did, was gain the additional co-operation between UK and Ireland, that ALL travellers would enter one border only when arriving in Ireland/NI/Mainland UK/Jersey/Guernsey/IOM. This was to avoid placing a border control on mainland UK for travellers from the island of Ireland/NI. (Thats been the whole bone of contention, UK Northern Irish, having to show a passport to visit the UK, its absolutely nothing to do with passports on the NI/Ireland border, and its the button the EU want to press by shit stirring suggested 'sea borders')

The easiest and most simplistic way to understand this, is draw a huge line around UK and Ireland, and theres your border, just as it was back in the 1920s when 'no passport control' was first agreed. However, and this is why long posts are absolutely neccesary, Vlad cant fly into Dublin on a UK visa. Ireland doesnt accept them. These sorts of variances, and there are lots of them, are all managed perfectly well.

Coming back to our Vlad though, if someone wants to overstay a tourist trip illegaly they will do. They do it now and theyll do it after Brexit. How do you propose tackling overstayers and how do you think a hard Irish/NI border would have any impact on illegal overstayers whichever side of the border?

"This just isn't true!"

Yes it is. The only time since the early 1920s and the creation of the Irish Free State and partition, that Irish or NI citizens were ever asked for passports or ID papers crossing the border, was during the Troubles when military border posts were put up.

"There were loads of promises made about VAT by leave campaigners!"

Well they must have passed me by, Ive never heard or read anywhere, any serious suggestion about removing it. Either way its a moot point for now. The EU refuse to discuss it.

So I assumed you just refused to engage further in the debate.

wisedad I think it's quite clear who is refusing to engage in further debate and your 'are you being deliberately thick' comment was incredibly rude and patronising but pretty standard for you.

Leavers often get outraged because the think they are being accused of being thick yet you think it's acceptable to specifically call someone that?

Caroline is completely ignoring me and refusing to clarify what her point was about Croatia so I have to assume she didn't actually have a relevant point but was simply ranting about something the EU did that she didn't like, as per usual.

I'm quite happy to be proved wrong here as I've said, I'd like there to be a simple solution to NI but since neither caroline nor anyone else can explain what Croatia has to do with this situation in practical terms, I'm assuming it's not relevant.

Wise am I being deliberately thick ? No, my little lambchopaloo , not deliberately thick , obtuse possibly , patronising, in this sentence , almost certainly

The government are actually going to have to make the impact assessments available to MP's , so that they can debate properly in parliament . The government have been privy to this information for some time , which is almost certainly why the negotiations are stalling at the moment . It's is like trying to negotiate a pay rise at a meeting, to tell you , you are being made redundant .

Have a lovely day in this calm before the storm, meteorologically speaking

caroline I know that Irish and NI citizens don't need passports to travel between the two. Whe I said "that isn't true" I was referring to your claim that the EU wanted to stop this.
They didn't.
The UK negotiators initially wanted to restrict common travel between the islands to British and Irish passport holders only. The EU are not trying to restrict movement of people across the border - do you have any evidence that they are?
In your example, yes "Vlad" from Russia can walk across the border but cannot work, etc. Fine. But that wasn't the position of your fellow leavers.
It has already been pointed out the movement of people shouldn't pose too much of a problem as long as people don't get dickish about "losing control of our borders"). Goods is more of an issue.

"The easiest and most simplistic way to understand this, is draw a huge line around UK and Ireland, and theres your border"
How do Ireland feel about a UK outside the EU absorbing them into their borders? Do Ireland want the border between themselves and the EU to be effectively the new EU border? Can you not think of any reason why this solution might not be welcomed by them?

Bear Caroline was bringing up Croatia because she was wrong about the Croatian border. Checkpoints with armed soldiers across the roads are not a good model for the NI border.

Theres not even a signpost telling him hes leaving one for the other.

So were you saying, there aren't.

Or is it an exercise in "Let's Imagine"?