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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
LurkingHusband · 09/10/2017 16:58

Surely it's more like Make it sew, since it's a stitch-up ?

prettybird · 09/10/2017 17:04

In response to Ken Clarke, May is now telling us about all the invisible ink things we (the electorate) agreed to when we voted to Leave: that we voted to leave the Single Market (despite Leave campaigners saying we wouldn't), that we voted to leave the Customs Union, that we voted to leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ, that we voted to have control of our sovereignty (despite acknowledging in her White Paper which came out after the Referendum Confused that we'd never not had it).....

I presume she has shares either in an invisible ink company or in a mind reading device.

prettybird · 09/10/2017 17:05

No having to give up watching as IDS came on Envy

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 17:11

Plain truths from former RoI PM John Bruton

< the Irish politicians and especially the Irish press are far, far better informed than the UK ones. Why do we have such idiots ? Angry >

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/09/eu-cannot-rely-on-uk-to-stick-to-brexit-deal-because-of-cabinet-divisions

The battle within the cabinet to replace Theresa May as prime minister has left the UK an unreliable negotiating partner in the Brexit talks,

unable to convince the EU that it will stick to any agreement it strikes,

Speaking to business leaders in Brussels,
John Bruton accused the British government of being hopelessly divided, and offering only a vague and impractical vision of what may come once the UK leaves the bloc in 2019.

“If it got into detail, the disagreement between cabinet members is so deep that the Conservative party would split and the government would fall,”
Bruton told the Institute of Directors.
“The Labour opposition has a similar problem.
UK party and public opinion has been polarised and is unready for compromise.

The Conservative party is consumed with its leadership struggle and cannot be relied upon to make a deal that will stick.”

He said the UK could find itself out of the EU in April 2019 before the transition deal had been ratified by all countries, meaning the deal would be inoperable..
“Negotiating and ratifying a transition deal could be almost as difficult as negotiating the final permanent deal,”

Bruton said the UK should “engage itself seriously with the complexities of Brexit” and seek to extend the timeframe of article 50,
something that would require unanimity by the 27 other EU member states.

“The present tight timeframe minimises the opportunity for creative thought.
Instead, it maximises the influence of blind bureaucratic and political forces.
It increases the likelihood of miscalculation, and of the UK leaving the EU with no deal at all.”

“Unfortunately, there is little sign that the current UK government, the originator of Brexit, sees this at all.
Their mind is on other things.”

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 17:15

May - and Hammond, maybe DD` too - have to keep waffling & stating airy platitudes,
because the instant they make any concrete proposals, with proper detail, they will be crucified

  • but currently by different flavours of Brexiter, not by Remainers
prettybird · 09/10/2017 17:24

Indeed. During her statement, she tried and failed to make a virtue of this, saying, effectively, she doesn't need to worry about nasty details like process, what she has to do is to provide the Bigger Picture

However, we the British public won't be able to eat the Bigger Picture if it all comes crashing down around her ears if they fail to come to an agreement - ie the process

thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 17:45

Agree with you, Oleanna, about the Julia Girling statement.

You know, one small thing about Brexit: it's taken me to the final stage of no longer being so 'tribal' about politics. I find people who say 'All politicians are the same,' and 'All members of X party are ' a bit trying now.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 17:46

Didn't see TM in HOC, but thanks for the commentaries.
Working out nicely for her old man's firm isn't it.

@Peston
Prime minister really does not want to say if she has had legal advice about whether Article 50 notification could be revoked

DrivenToDespair · 09/10/2017 17:49

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 18:00

Agree on Dunt red. Stuff that's been taught and studied on Communications Studies and Media studies courses for half a century shouldn't be a surprise.
He seems to have a bit of an issue with feminists too. Bless. Shouty wee men like him and Mason are taking good jobs from women.

lalalonglegs · 09/10/2017 18:09

I enjoyed this from Guardian coverage:

In the Commons, the Conservative MP Michael Fabricant says Labour could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag. A Labour MP - it sounded very like Chris Bryant - shouted that they would not have got into the paper bag in the first place. Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 18:12
Grin
BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 18:16

(paywall) Still clueless on Brexit – and it’s taking a toll

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/david-smith-economic-outlook-still-clueless-on-brexit-and-its-taking-a-toll-8x5shg0l9

Sixteen months on from the EU referendum, and less than 18 months until Britain’s formal departure,
business still does not have much of a clue about Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

It is, frankly, astonishing that so far into the process,
the government does not have a Brexit blueprint that it can communicate.
This is not, to be clear, to avoid showing our negotiating hand to the EU.
There is no blueprint Angry

“Businesses are clear that they want a comprehensive transition period, lasting at least three years,
and pragmatic discussions on the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU firmed up by the end of 2017,”
said the British Chambers of Commerce.

“They will judge the government’s progress on Brexit by this yardstick
and will take investment and hiring decisions accordingly.”

The Institute of Directors attacked “the big let-down” of the party conference season
and the fact that
“far too little time has been spent explaining the plan for how we leave the EU.”
....
Those that have made contingency plans for a Brexit deal that falls well short of what they need to operate in the EU and
have either pressed the button on those plans or are close to doing so.
....
The City ..... will take action on the basis of no deal and no transition.
....
The construction sector is struggling because of a lack of new projects and may be back in recession,
while service sector growth has slowed.

The economy is crawling along,
with the third quarter of the year set to similarly weak growth as the first two quarters.
.....
Such talk misunderstands the nature of our trading relationship with the EU, and the degree to which the British economy is integrated within the EU economy.

Many British businesses see their exports embodied as intermediate components of the EU’s exports,
as Mark Carney pointed out in a recent speech,
in a way that barely happens in the rest of the world.
They are part of an EU supply chain.

British exports to the rest of the world travel long distances,
taking a long time, by ship or plane.

British exports and imports to the EU travel short distances,
usually by lorry, and operate on tight schedules,
because they are carrying components needed for just-in-time production,
or perishable food products and other products where time is of the essence.
Delay these movements and you have serious problems.

The Port of Dover used advertising space at the Tory conference to demonstrate
that the 10,000 lorries it handles each day are cleared through the port in an average of two minutes.

Extend that average time by just two minutes and there would be 17-mile queues on the English side of the Channel
with something similar on the other side.

Operation Stack, the occasional queues of lorries on the M20, would become a permanent feature, and worse.
Without frictionless trade, there would be chaos, confusion and considerable economic damage.
....
The single market has changed the nature of Britain’s economy,
enabling the advantages of free trade, as well as economies of scale, to be more fully exploited.
....
Smart detective work by Ed Conway, Sky’s economics editor, suggests the true share [of UK exports to EU] is already above 50%.
....
“Countries have always traded the most with their biggest, closest neighbours.

This is by far the most reliable fact about international trade and holds true no matter which set of countries, time period or sector (goods, services, e-commerce, foreign investments) is looked at.

Given that the EU is within swimming distance from the UK,
has a population of more than 500m
and a GDP of almost $20 trillion (double that of China),
an equivalent replacement is effectively impossible.

EU standards on goods and labour are more acceptable to British people than those in the US, China and India.”
....
the best business can hope for is agreement on lengthy transition arrangements,
during which very little changes.

As to where Britain ends up in the long-term in its relationship with the EU,
it is still not getting much of a clue Angry

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 18:39

@faisalislam 2m2 minutes ago
“the PM has gone further than I wished for her to go” on ECJ jurisdiction during transition... @JacobReesMogg tells @JasonFarrellSky

versus

@michaelgove
Strong statement from PM on Brexit - let's be pragmatic over implementation to secure maximum freedom to diverge from EU in end state

TheElementsSong · 09/10/2017 18:52

Every time I think the Brexiteers can’t get any crazier, they go and prove me wrong.

SwedishEdith · 09/10/2017 18:56

Spotted on a Pete North thread from one of his followers. It's now the fault of Remainers that UK could crash out with no deal. Grin

Simon Barnett‏ @_SimonBarnett 8h8 hours ago
Show where Leave Alliance campaigned for leaving the EEA.

St Jason of London‏ @SaintTheJase 7h7 hours ago
Show me where the leave campaign stepped up and owned Brexit and "made it work"

Simon Barnett‏
Replying to @SaintTheJase @PeteNorth303
It was a referendum. We did we elect the leave campaign.
But we'll end up WTO b/c EU fanatics did not speak up for the EFTA/EEA option.

John Curle‏ @johncurle 4h4 hours ago
Christ! This is my fault. I never realised. Thanks for pointing it out.

BiglyBadgers · 09/10/2017 19:03

But we'll end up WTO b/c EU fanatics did not speak up for the EFTA/EEA option.

So it's the fault of the EU fanatics for not being fanatical enough about the EU? Eh, OK then...

TheElementsSong · 09/10/2017 19:11

See? Crazy!

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 19:18

@adampayne26 Oct 8
Michael Heseltine at it again:

Sky News: "Where would you put Boris if you were in Theresa May's position?"

Heseltine: "Mongolia”

SwedishEdith · 09/10/2017 19:20

Dominic Cummings has deleted his Twitter account, apparently.

Peregrina · 09/10/2017 19:41

If Brexit did cause food rationing to be introduced, it would be the fault of the EU for not being prepared to accommodate the UK's cake and eat it stance.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 20:22

Senior civil servant JDD (Leaver) agonising again on R North blog

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86630 :

"Nobody is listening to advice.
That is why there is a huge attrition rate in the individual departments
and taskforces are being put together at Cabinet Office

It is really dire and it is going to be a catastrophe.
...
I now make sure that every paper I send out is acknowledged as being read
and when the shit hits the fan I can honestly then say I told you so,
I know you read it and you chose to ignore it,
so therefore it is not my problem
and you have to face the voters or in this case the food rioters
....
Until I realised that there is a tipping point beyond which the UK can never recover and remain democratic

That tipping point is when food becomes in short supply and significant commercial flight
I give it less than a week after exit
..... chaos in my view
....
No need for a general strike there will be mass unemployment anyway within days
"

Another poster "A practical question re food rationing. How will you be linked to a list ?"

JDD: "Same as during the war - you will be linked to your nearest supermarket with prices dictated centrally
..... Linked to your NHS Card Number
......Not using NI Number,[[https://www.scottishparliament.tv/meeting/culture-tourism-europe-and-external-relations-committee-october-5-2017 "

Another poster "Which printers got the OJEU contract to print the ration]] booklets"

JDD:" Never went to the Journal as it was a matter in the national interest and covered by the Official Secrets Act.
Some firm in Cheltenham that prints money I gather"
< I think he is hinting at the firm that prints UK banknotes >

mathanxiety · 09/10/2017 20:24

John Bruton is not only a former Taoiseach.

After his career in Irish politics, he was EU ambassador to the US for several years, a few years ago. It is very likely that business leaders and EU politicians will pay attention to what Bruton says on the topic of Brexit.

It is interesting that Bruton is playing a role here, but not surprising, given his wealth of experience and contacts in Brussels. At this point, although Fine Gael is a minority government, I think it can be assumed that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (which currently supports FG in the Dail, though not in coalition and not a National Government) are essentially well co-ordinated in their approach to Brexit.

Am I the only one who noted that the Irish Revenue Commissioners began preparing an assessment of the impact of Brexit a year before the vote?
A year before Brexit, the Revenue Commissioners began exploring the potential impact on the customs interface between Ireland and the UK. (Quoted by RTB, Sun 08-Oct-17 09:38:42)
There is a lesson to be learned there, somewhere.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 20:39

Pennies dropping. Grin

@davidallengreen
Well.

@patrickwintour
On Independence Day March 2019 only EU body from which UK will be independent is Council of Ministers - where decisions are taken. Brilliant

I think it's called pragmatic divergence day now.