Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
mathanxiety · 09/10/2017 20:48

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41546701
WRT the May speech in the HoC today:
First, did she button up her Mondays and Tuesdays? Take a close look at her right lapel - is that a button hole? Look at the way the bulky fold of the jacket runs diagonally across the right side of her chest. Look at the crumpled collar.

Secondly, this speech was all about preparing the UK for a cliff edge.

Mrs May repeated her call for a "new, deep and special partnership between a sovereign United Kingdom and a strong and successful European Union" in her first statement to MPs since her Florence speech last month, which was meant to kick-start stalled Brexit talks.
Disingenuous waffle that sets up the EU as churls for rejecting special snowflake status for the UK, even though the UK is so earnest about how this could work.

"Achieving that partnership will require leadership and flexibility, not just from us but from our friends, the 27 nations of the EU," she said. "And as we look forward to the next stage, the ball is in their court. But I am optimistic we will receive a positive response."^
Just that - the ball is in the EU's court.
But the EU is not flexible and, lacking leadership (being over-bureaucratic, you see) it can only be stubborn. Therefore it is the EU's fault if the whole shebang is run into the ground.

She rejected existing models for economic cooperation, such as membership of the European Economic Area or the Canadian model, calling instead for a "creative" solution that would be "unique" to the UK.
Special snowflake status again.
If it can't be accomplished, it is the fault of the EU for lacking creativity.
The word 'creativity' reflects Leave language that paints the EU as a faceless, plodding, aloof entity, set in its ways, incapable of imagination or deft maneuvers. Grey, massive, mechanical.
The political equivalent of the Bismarck.

But she also stressed - as she has done before - that the government was preparing for "every eventuality," reinforcing the government's long-held position that walking away without a deal is a possibility.
Laying the groundwork for the most likely outcome. This is the entire point of the speech.

I trust her on NI as far as I can throw her.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 21:20

I hazily remember reading about a 1930s Anglo-Irish Trade War
(can math or other Irish posters elborate ?)

iirc, the RoI sealed the border with NI,
enduring much more severe economic damage than expected from Brexit

  • to protect its independence from Britain and not give in to bullying.

re Troubles:
Dissident Republicans surely won't shoot at Irish customs officials or soldiers if Dublin is standing up to London.
However the London financial centre could be hit again - which would turn downsizing into a mad exodus

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 21:47

Tragic case, which has had very little coverage, hoping it might get some more publicity today. It looked like she might be released, but now has been given 16 years. Something very odd about this case.

Eighteen months ago, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe – a British Iranian – was arrested at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini airport by members of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard as she was boarding a flight home to London with her two-year-old daughter. The holiday had been an innocent reunion – Nazanin, travelling on a dual passport, had brought Gabriella to meet her grandparents for the first time. To this day, it’s still unclear as to why she was seized and imprisoned. “Arbitrary politics” is mentioned more than once by Richard

Earlier this year it was revealed that UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson has neither met with the Ratcliffes' local MP, Tulip Siddiq, nor any of the Ratcliffe family during Nazanin’s 18-month imprisonment.

www.the-pool.com/news-views/latest-news/2017/41/kat-lister-on-nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-devastating-sentence-in-iran

Link to email MP about it.

www.amnesty.org.uk/actions/help-get-nazanin-and-kamal-home

thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 22:08

Thanks for linking to the petition, woman . I read Cathy Newman tweeting about this and couldn't help feeling she's right. It's unfathomable that she hasn't been released.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 22:09

Dominic Cummings has deleted his Twitter account, apparently

@TintishaTech
Replying to @carolecadwalla
Interesting. The Crowd Justice fund for the case to investigate collusion by Vote Leave reached it's target yesterday..

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 22:10

Cheers cat Feel a bit sullied having to contact my tory, but needs must.

Somerville · 09/10/2017 22:11

Dissident Republicans surely won't shoot at Irish customs officials or soldiers if Dublin is standing up to London.

Goodness knows. They're crazy fuckers, and having border posts up again would (will?) be massively inflammatory. But probabaly anyone sitting on the "U.K." side would be in more danger than the republic side. Though physical infrastructure on both sides would be destroyed. In much the same way that certain parts of the north, there are never any working speed cameras. They're all destroyed as fast as they can be fixed.

However the London financial centre could be hit again - which would turn downsizing into a mad exodus

As you know, the IRA learned that the way to draw attention to the cause was by taking the armed struggle to the mainland. (I abhor their methods, BTW. But it was successful.) This is probabaly the only thing giving pause to the more rabid Brexiters.

On the 30's trade war - I remember it was sparked by the grossly unfair land annuity repayments (that Irish tenant farmers had had to borrow in order to purchase their land from their former (English) landlords).

OlennasWimple · 09/10/2017 22:17

If I were Dublin, I might refuse to put border guards on the north / south border out of principle. Let the Brits police this unwelcome border (and good luck to them - it is a literally impossible task. This farmer is the most egregious example of why a physical border is a non-starter, but there are lots of other places where it just wouldn't work too)

Somerville · 09/10/2017 22:30

I can't imagine they'd want to: dangerous, expensive, ideologically difficult. However, wouldn't they have an obligation to protect their border/collect duty, etc? That's the rumbling of concern I hear from family members who live near the border - that the British are going to leave the Irish government in the lurch, to do their dirty work for them. And people in the north are (perhaps understandably) staying much more up to date with the Brexit process than those in Britain. (Present company of course are excepted!)

Various rabid leavers of my acquaintance have also insisted that we can leave 'that border for the Irish to police for us' (angering me on so many levels).

That would only last as long as it would take for the Troubles to reignite though, and then we'd have the British army along the border about as quickly as I can say United Ireland Referendum.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 22:30

Mums letter for Nazanin:
www.change.org/p/mothers-open-letter-to-the-iranian-government-free-nazanin

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 22:39

Front pages all running on 'no deal'. Unfuckingbelievable.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 22:48

I've just seen that, woman.

Goodness. Shock

Peregrina · 09/10/2017 22:49

JDD: "Same as during the war - you will be linked to your nearest supermarket with prices dictated centrally
I believe that once a year you could change who you were registered with.

..... Linked to your NHS Card Number
Which were taken from the Identity card numbers originally, and used to be alpha numeric, but have been changed now.

thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 22:49

Better find out what my NHS number is.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 22:58

Meantime, Look who's laughing now (don't puke on your screen)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/09/david-cameron-takes-job-with-us-electronic-payments-firm-first-data

David Cameron has taken a job with the electronic payments firm First Data Corporation, his first major private sector job since leaving office.
....
In a press release, First Data described Cameron as one of the “most prominent global influencers of the early 21st century” Confused
< wrecking the #5 economy probably does count as being a "global influencer" >

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 23:24

Tom Newton Dunn‏ @tnewtondunn
Excl: Two Brexit Cabinet ministers demand billions in the Budget to prepare for 'no deal’ - 50/50 chance of it now;

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4648181/ministers-demand-billions-from-chancellor-to-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit/
PHIL UP COFFERS Ministers demand BILLIONS from Chancellor to prepare for ‘no-deal’ Brexit
Two of the PM’s most senior ministers spoke to The Sun to vent their growing anger with the government’s failure to be ready to call the EU’s bluff if exit deal talks fail.

But the bus!! There's loads of cash to spare.
Brexiteers in cabinet: Johnson, Davis, Gove, Fox, Patel

Which one other than Gove do we think it is?

Tom Newton Dunn‏***@tnewtondunn*
Chances of no deal? What I'm told;
David Davis privately, 10%
Cabinet minister who campaigned Remain, 40%
Another who campaigned Brexit, 50%

Tom Newton Dunn‏***@tnewtondunn*
We also reveal ministers have looked at buying up a motorway service station close to Dover as a lorry park. Cost: £50m?

Uh oh...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 23:28

Michael Gove‏ @michaelgove
Strong statement from PM on Brexit - let's be pragmatic over implementation to secure maximum freedom to diverge from EU in end state

Tom Newton Dunn‏**@tnewtondunn**
Gove being deployed to try to appease Brexiteer backbench rage on ECJ/new EU rules in transition - suck it up folks, the prize is worth it.

Boris Johnson
4 hrs ·
Great statement by the PM. Yes we will have a transition period but as she rightly says the chances of new EU regulations in that period are very small.
And yes we will mostly have to operate under existing rules during the transition but we WILL be able to negotiate proper free trade deals and business will be able to prepare properly for Brexit.
What matters is the end state and our freedom to do things differently and better - and once again the PM sets out a powerful vision: out of customs union, out of single market, taking back full control.
She has reaffirmed the destination of a self-governing, free-trading, buccaneering and Global Britain taking back control over our laws, money, and borders.
The future is bright. Let’s keep calm and carry on leaving the EU.

Tom Newton Dunn‏ @tnewtondunn
Boris wheeled out too, fully resiling from his pre-conference red line on new laws. A sign No10 sees big dangers.

OP posts:
thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 23:29

No wonder Philip Hammond has been talking to business leaders and trying to put the fear of Corbyn into them. This isnot good news for businesses.

This is crazy.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 23:31

Simon the Stylite‏*@Sime0nStylites*
Still not sure people quite understand that a material risk of No Deal Brexit is hugely damaging BEFORE the actual point of No Deal.

To put it another way, we could say we will no deal, and business plans accordingly and then ultimately stay in the EU and be fucked.

Those front pages tomorrow are a disaster.

OP posts:
thecatfromjapan · 09/10/2017 23:36

Yes, RTB . I genuinely can't quite believe it. That is not the reassurance City and business leaders were seeking. It's actually the opposite. People are going to have to put their 'worst case' plans into action.

I genuinely cannot understand the thinking behind this. It makes absolutely no sense.

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 23:38

Media Guardian‏ @mediaguardian
We can no longer pretend the British press is impartial | Owen Jones

Jennifer Williams‏***@JenWilliamsMEN* (aka a half decent actual journo)
Where to start.

T:man‏*@room808* @JenWilliamsMEN
What's your angle? Don't particularly like him but are you suggesting the mail and the sun are impartial?

Jennifer Williams‏***@JenWilliamsMEN*
Nope. Any more than the mirror or the guardian. And we all know this. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

Glad its not just me who thought this article was ridiculous.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 23:41

I genuinely cannot understand the thinking behind this. It makes absolutely no sense.

You say that... disaster capitalists will profit.

Also if you wanted to stay in the EU the best way would be to have that crash now, before you actually leave. (The May is genius alternative reality we all know if untrue).

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 10/10/2017 01:06

self-governing, free-trading buccaneering and Global Britain taking back control over our laws, money, and borders.
That single word tells you everything you need to know about the delusion of Brexit, what it is about it that grips the Leave imagination, how little they know of history, or economics, and how unacquainted they are with solid ground.

I think the Metro got it right - the Tories have nailed their colours to the mast now, and the course is set for the jagged rocks of No Deal (with a nice big two-fingered salute to Ireland as they sail past).

mathanxiety · 10/10/2017 01:48

Dissident Republicans surely won't shoot at Irish customs officials or soldiers if Dublin is standing up to London

There is no love lost between dissident Republicans and Dublin. It's impossible to predict what might happen.

The Economic War indeed had as its context the payment of annuities to the UK for the purchase of farms under the various Land Acts of the late 19th C, and the sense that this was most unjust, considering the political pov that Irish land was never really the property of interlopers despite what the British law might say.

My mother was born in the thick of it, on a small farm in the SE. Times were fairly grim, but my grandfather supported the policy 100%, and the farm provided almost everything they needed. The family farm and the Land Act loan that secured it were inherited from my grandfather's childless aunt and uncle - grandad (a very staunch Republican) left school at 14 and had the fantastic opportunity to go to work there (no sarcasm intended - the alternative was Queensland) and it galled him to have to set money aside that could not be spent on a growing family in order to repay a loan that lined the pockets of the McMurrough Kavanaghs who lived ten miles away in quite significantly better circumstances than anyone else did in the rural locality.

There were other farmers whose heard earned money went to repay loans that had paid off landlords they had never seen - from middle class investors to aristocrats who owned vast tracts. In poorer areas, hardship was really widespread.