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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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woman11017 · 09/10/2017 09:46

Anyone else prepping this week?

prettybird · 09/10/2017 09:53

I've been buying a few extra cans/rice/spaghetti/sugar every week for a few weeks now. I'm going to have to reorganise my cupboards!

All stuff I'll use anyway. Smile

But it's only ever a sticking plaster that would only last a few weeks if that Hmm

Cailleach1 · 09/10/2017 09:55

Listening to the news this morning, it was reported that the ball was now in the EU's court. To be more flexible and imaginative with solutions. The UK are leaving, but the EU should adjust in some way.

It then struck me when I heard the word 'concession' in the report. Having been accommodated in concession land when a member, the gov't think the EU should still accommodate the UK as a third country with special concessions. Concessions other third countries do not receive. Special third country status. Third country in name and lack of regulation and contribution but membership benefits.

woman11017 · 09/10/2017 10:11

it's only ever a sticking plaster
I agree prettybird Preparations for 'contingency plans' being on the news bulletins now. Missed the blackberries this year for the first time in years, some crumbles might have been useful.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/10/2017 10:23

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prettybird · 09/10/2017 10:54

Motheroffourdragons - I'm only buying tins (and checking the Use By dates) and "dry" consumables that will last.

But one of the reasons I need to rearrange my cupboards is so that it is easier to rotate what I've been buying Smile

By doing it little by little, I won't notice it on my grocery bill Grin

Motheroffourdragons · 09/10/2017 11:03

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ElenaGreco123 · 09/10/2017 11:05

DH thought we should holiday in Madrid or Barcelona in half-term [facepalm].

I thought about starting to prep, but DH would just give it away to the school harvest festival at the moment.

Cailleach1 · 09/10/2017 11:49

On foot of the Redwood humming Welsh. Doesn't everyone know that it was year zero when the first Angle or Saxon set foot on the island of Britain. Any existing language became suddenly a foreign language.

Same with NI, even when the lines weren't drawn quite right and the locals have the temerity to recover somewhat in numbers. Now what needs to be done is to chop it off from the rest of the island, pretend it was never attached and eradicate all the place names which gives any idea of a pre existing language and culture. And make sure those new boundaries never see the light of day. instead a nice little gerrymander effort . You wouldn't be able to tell the difference between Finchley and Fermanagh. The free thinking Protestants and Presbyterians of the Society of the United Irishmen would be turning in their graves.

"The Society of United Irishmen was founded as a liberal political organisation in 18th-century Ireland that initially sought Parliamentary reform.[1] However, it evolved into a revolutionary republican organisation, inspired by the American Revolution and allied with Revolutionary France. It launched the Irish Rebellion of 1798 with the objective of ending British monarchical rule over Ireland and founding a sovereign, independent Irish republic."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_United_Irishmen

Many of the members were Protestant. Presbyterians too, but true free thinkers. Different from now. Don't forget the penal laws which repressed, dispossesed and pauperised a nation in/of their own land still existed at this time. You could keep your property (or take your entire families) if you became Protestant. Many things looked at and lauded from a British viewpoint will send a shiver down many an Irish spine. Penal laws and Cromwell. His actions paved the way for parliamentary democracy in Britain but is remembered for massacre and murder in Ireland. Purges.

"The Penal Laws were, according to Edmund Burke "a machine of wise and elaborate contrivance, as well fitted for the oppression, impoverishment and degradation of a people, and the debasement in them of human nature itself, as ever proceeded from the perverted ingenuity of man."[3] Burke long counseled kinder relations by London with its American & Irish cousins, fearing that the punitive spirit fostered by the British was destroying English character, and would spur violent revolt."
and
In 1613, the constituencies of the Irish House of Commons were altered to give plantation settlers a majority

I'd suspect Gove wouldn't have found too much wrong with this, and have been among comrades at the DUP shindig he recently attended. I'd also suspect he was against the GFA for other reasons than his official line about it capitulating to the IRA. 71% of the people of NI (or the 94% in Ireland) did not vote for it in order to capitulate to the IRA. Strawman excuse IMO.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penal_Laws_(Ireland)

I don't understand the present day othering and dismissive attitude towards Celtic languages. But it probably did and does reinforce an English speaking identity as a dominant culture. Rather than just English (and therefore excluding Welsh, Scots and Northern Irish ), English speaking. My mother didn't learn English until she went to school. I think the fact they were in this corner of Europe before the arrival of Germanic languages grated and maybe in the UK still grates with some narrative. It exposes the English as subsequent migrants of later wave of incomers. And therefore the history of trying to destroy them in everyday use. You see in this present climate migrant is a bad word. As for refugee: enough invective doesn't exist. What is your game mate, fleeing that war to try to keep your children alive?

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 11:54

If the ports are log-jammed as R North sstates is inevitable with a crash-out or WTO Brexit,
I still cannot imaging that food supplies would be disrupted for more than a couple of weeks

Otherwise, you need to be prepping for mass riots, violent revolution, stringing up MPs from lamp-posts

Remember, at least ¼ of the population have less than £95 savings, so a substantial minority cannot prep even if they believed warnings in time
Add to them the sunny uplands Brexit lot, the naive ones only, who would refuse to prep, unless the Queen broadcast that everyone should.
So that would be a hefty % of the population getting hungry after a few days

(Reports are that Farage plans to be in the US for Brexit, probably Banks, Legatum and a good section of prominent Brexiters will decamp, to avoid being lynched)

I am getting nervous though, because R North and Senior civil servant JDD on his blog are sounding quite panicky atm
So are the port authorities.
JDD posted that ration books have already been printed
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86627

That's ration books for food, not just petrol.
Personal petrol rations would piss people off; being issued with ration books for food would send them into total panic
So no ration books would not be issued until the very last moment, probably not until after the ports are jammed.
< cue BBc broadcasts of "strong & stable" >

All this is why I still have faith in those 30 or so Tory MPs who warned the whips at the start of this Parliament that they would block any type of Brexit that could lead to this.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:00

What would be a problem thereafter is an economic recession, businesses closing or moving abroad, with large scale job losses.

Major changes to an economy can do this:
iirc, MrsT's changes, whether you love her or hate her, added 2 million unemployed in quite a short time
Great swathes of industry closed, never to reopen and the jobs were not replaced by those of similar pay & conditions

LurkingHusband · 09/10/2017 12:02

On foot of the Redwood humming Welsh. Doesn't everyone know that it was year zero when the first Angle or Saxon set foot on the island of Britain. Any existing language became suddenly a foreign language.

Except that post 1066 "English" - in whatever form it was - became the language of the peasant. With the nobility all being Norman French, and conversing in French. (Personally I would speculate that the fact this obscured affairs of state from the masses was certainly not unhelpful).

If memory serves, no English King was really fluent in "English" until the 1300s ... there was one of the Edwards/Henrys who was renowned for his Tucker-esque taste for swearing.

Yet another example of the patchy knowledge of history the Leavers try to sell as part of their story. I am secretly waiting for someone from the Leave campaign to cite Oscar Wilde (double irony Grin), or George Bernard Shaw as the epitome of English wit and sophistication.

IdontlooklikeEmmaWatson · 09/10/2017 12:06

bigChoc that's an interesting blog nd the comment section is worth glancing at.

This caught my attention:
It pretty much went unnoticed due to the conference debacle, but the DUP clarified the proposed sea border was a red line issue for them

and so i am wondering if the conference debacle might have been planned, not by BoJo to tear down May but by May's team, to distract from much more worrying conference contents.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:06

(paywall) Tories at war as Theresa May plans for no EU deal – but rebels warn she must make progress by Christmas

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/07/tories-war-theresa-may-plans-no-eu-deal-rebels-warn-must-make/

The Telegraph can disclose that Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, is planning to sanction the Brexit spending in the new year to prepare the UK for leaving in March 2019 without a deal with the EU.

The cash – which is not expected to appear in the Budget < so as not to panic the public ?>
will be spent on new technology to speed up customs checks at the borders if the UK has to revert to a World Trade Organisation tariff system, and a range of other measures.

The Government is already working on plans to deal with air traffic control and migration in the event of a “hard Brexit”. Face to face talks begin again with EU officials in Brussels on Monday.

One senior Treasury source told the Telegraph:
“Billions of pounds will be unlocked in the new year if progress has not been made. We have to plan for a no deal.”

SwedishEdith · 09/10/2017 12:12

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/primer-1-wto-membership/

Good, clear, plain English article on UK's WTO membership.

SwedishEdith · 09/10/2017 12:19

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/primer-2-tariff-quotas/

And this one of tariff quotas.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/10/2017 12:22

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:30

(paywall) The Tories’ reputation for competence is going

< Hmm surprising it ever existed >

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tories-reputation-for-competence-is-going-nxxktmbfh

The Conservative Party does not need to worry about being likeable Hmm
Its currency is not likeability but respect.
For decades there has been a belief that while you might loathe the Tories, they get the job done.

Yes, they could be arrogant, high-handed bastards but at least they were competent bastards. Hmm
They were capable.
They could envision and see through big, nation-changing projects.

This is the fatal thing about the current state of the Conservative Party.
The reputation for competence is gone — and with it the grudging respect that brought millions of people to vote Tory.

For the Tories to lose their reputation for competence would be as fatal as Labour losing theirs for compassion.
It is core to the brand.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:34

Mother Hammond has unexpected budget pronlems, in addition to the problems he thought he had:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/05/hammonds-budget-cupboard-almost-bare-treasury-document-reveals/

A dramatic over-estimation of the UK's productivity levels over the past seven years by fiscal watchdog, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR),
means the Chancellor of the Exchequer's room for spending could be reduced by as much as two-thirds.

The Chancellor had previously set aside £26bn of headroomm* to cushion shocks to the economy in the wake of the Brexit vote,
but this will be severely curtailed by the OBR's new, more negative outlook for the UK.

A recent internal Treasury document, which has been seen by the Financial Times, suggested that the £26bn headroom would be reduced to a margin of "single digits of billions" as a result of the latest revisions.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:40

Brexiter in lala land, complaining May is listening to the Treasury advice instead of James Dyson

Like all Ultras, he sees the automatic consequences of choosing to become a "third country" as deliberate punishment by the EU

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/08/brexit-treasury-eu-bernard-jenkin

There is no intrinsic reason why Brexit should be difficult or damaging, but the EU itself has so far demonstrated it wants to make it so;
and it has co-opted the CBI, parts of the City and, it seems, the Treasury to assist.
They are legitimising EU threats of economic disruption.

We are fast reaching the point when the prime minister should assert the authority of her office over the negotiations and call time.
A clean break in 2019 would be preferable to the mess they want to draw us into
.....
It seems blind to the facts, preoccupied with preserving “access” to the EU market seemingly at any cost.
People such as James Dyson or Anthony Bamford of JCB are ignored.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2017 12:41

btw, he belongs to the powerful ERG group of Tory MPs

Motheroffourdragons · 09/10/2017 12:47

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Cailleach1 · 09/10/2017 12:56

Oh, it is not merely a punishment by the EU. The Treasury, CBI and anyone who ever mentions the possibility of any downside is colluding with the EU. It is beyond parody, now.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/10/2017 13:00

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RedToothBrush · 09/10/2017 13:03

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
PING - May to EU 'the ball is in your court'
PONG - EU to May 'la balle est dans ton camp'
scene set for constructive week of negotiations

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*
This is the Foreign Secretary's reaction to fellow MPs re front pages saying his allies want the Chancellor of the Exchequer to be sacked

Alex Wickham‏*@WikiGuido*

Boris: "I heartily disagree with the sense, tone and spirit" of allies' comments... "I do not know who these people are"
order-order.com/2017/10/09/livid-boris-vents-fury-at-allies-briefing-press/

I believe it was Nadine Dorres and various Torygraph articles.

David Lammy‏*@DavidLammy*
Amendments to EU Withdrawal Bill run to over 100 pages. A lot of work for all parties to do on this unfit for purpose piece of legislation

www.thenational.scot/news/15583720.Tories_plan_to_use_their_power_grab_to_sell_out_Scots_fishing_and_farming__says_Brexit_minister/
Tories plan to use their power grab to sell out Scots fishing and farming, says Brexit minister Michael Russell

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/google-russia-us-election-adverts-found-youtube-gmail-donald-trump-president-investigation-latest-a7990546.html
Google says Russia tried to influence US election using adverts on YouTube and Gmail
Tens of thousands of dollars were spent on ads by Russian agents, according to US tech giant

No shit. You took the money and you are telling us this now? Why is that?

May statement in the Commons later today.

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