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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Badders08 · 16/10/2017 15:21

Oh LH
You are so poetic 😂

GlassOfPort · 16/10/2017 15:51

I could also live with a Swiss arrangement, but I can't see how that could be negotiated in 18 months...

The Wikipedia entry for Swiss-EU relations makes for useful reading

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations

In 1994 Switzerland and the EU started negotiations about a special relationship outside the EEA....The first treaty was signed in 1999 and came into effect in 2002....By 2010, Switzerland had amassed around 210 trade treaties with the EU.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2017 16:28

If May is attempting a Swiss-style Brexit ..... this is likely to take several years
There are over 100 different EU-Switzerland deals to create their trade arrangement

The EU have repeatedly said that the interconnecting Swiss deals are too complicated and time-consuming, occupying so much expert manpower - for maintenance as well, as the EU changes and creates deals with other countries
Hence they said - long before the EU referendum - that they don't want to attempt this arrangement with any other country.

They may yet agree to for the UK, but the UK can't exist in limbo for several years while all the deals are worked out
So it would mean a very long extension / transition period for the UK under current EU terms, but without MEPs

BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2017 16:28

Switzerland-EU trade / deals

ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/switzerland/index_en.htm

BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2017 16:31

"In overall, around 100 bilateral agreements currently exist between the EU and Switzerland.
The on-going implementation of these agreements obliges Switzerland to take over relevant Community legislation in the covered sectors.

These bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland are currently managed through a structure of more than 15 joint committees."

Very cumbersome

LewisThere · 16/10/2017 16:36

I can live with any agreement et that means the uk isnt completely out of the EU.
Both on a very selfish pov (I would t be so worried about my ability to stay in the uk, pensions etc...)
But for the uk itself too. Economically, on a safety and security pov, etc... this is what would be the least disastrous.
The fact it will never be as good as being IN the EU is obvious

BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2017 16:39

If May / the Ultras insist on being ready by Beano Day, they would need to successfully negotiate 2 treaties per day,
in order to give time for the E27, UK and European Parliament to be ratified, hopefully in one chunk at the end

2 treaties per day, every day, starting after her dinner assuming she doesn't have another row
considering they haven't got anywhere near even one treaty after 16 months ....

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 16:49

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-islington-north-seat-to-be-abolished-in-boundary-shakeup-a3659846.html
Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat to be abolished in boundary shake-up
EXCLUSIVE: Labour leader's seat of Islington North will cease to exist under new plans

Overall the plans will cut London’s tally of MPs from 73 MPs to 68. It is part of a review set in motion by David Cameron to whittle down the overall size of the Commons from 650 MPs to just 600.

But most MPs think the laboriously drafted new map will be sunk when put to a vote next year, after Theresa May lost her majority in the election.

Key questions are whether the Democratic Unionist Party have managed to argue successfully against plans that would have cut their tally of seats.

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TheElementsSong · 16/10/2017 17:22

It seems that DD asked Vince Cable to discipline a LibDem MEP who did not vote according to The Will Of The People Shock

twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/919940252801912832

So much for "something something democracy something something control something something EU undemocratic..." Hmm

TheElementsSong · 16/10/2017 17:24

Also reported here - and it was a general call from DD for measures against Labour and LibDem MEPS for being unpatriotic etc etc.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vince-cable-david-davis-mep-suspend-post-brexit-trade-talks-vote-against-lib-dem-tory-a8003186.html

woman11017 · 16/10/2017 17:29

Bit of light relief: we had spooky beautiful sahara sand skies down south today, Ian Dunt's twitter feed is funny as boys try to take pictures of it.

@IanDunt
Sorry to do this but it is going all funny outside like in Ghostbusters.

Brexocalypse .

Motheroffourdragons · 16/10/2017 17:30

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

woman11017 · 16/10/2017 17:33

@acgrayling
If Hilary Clinton is only half right about Russian interference aimed at disuniting the EU, Brexit should be stopped & investigations made.

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 18:21

Meanwhile in Malta Sad

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41637730

A prominent blogger in Malta, who had accused the island's government of corruption, has died in a car bomb attack, according to police.

Daphne Caruana Galizia, 53, was reportedly killed when the car she was driving exploded shortly after she left her home in Bidnija, near Mosta.

(contd).

Do we need to go back to checking under our cars ? (I have an official police mirror on a stick from a former life, if anyone needs one).

BlueEyeshadow · 16/10/2017 18:49

Meanwhile...

More Brexocalypse

pointythings · 16/10/2017 19:32

BlueEyeshadow I ducked out of that interview. Redwood came on the Today programme this morning on my way to work and I just put Linkin Park on instead - I don't need stress on my way to work.

APipkinOfPepper · 16/10/2017 19:34

I haven’t posted on these threads before as I don’t feel there is anything I can add, but would like to say thanks for the informative posts from others! And on the topic of negative news about brexit, these headlines came into my inbox today from’Public Finance’.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2017 22:03

iirc, LH was warning us to get a good VPN against official snoopers.
Now we have to worry about (Ordinary Decent Criminal) hackers too

'All wifi networks' are vulnerable to hacking, security expert discovers

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/16/wpa2-wifi-security-vulnerable-hacking-us-government-warns

lonelyplanetmum · 16/10/2017 22:17

With respect to PIpkin's post by coincidence we had the crisis letter from DD's headmaster today.(I mean youngest daughter's headmaster not David Davis's headmistress.) The letter says...
"Our financial position
For this financial year, April 2017/2018, there was a reduction in the funding we received from Government... Whilst we have been running a tight ship for the last couple of years...this year it means that the school has set a budget which will see us spending more than we will receive by around £60k.
Whilst future education funding policy is not entirely clear, it is likely that the position will only become more challenging.We are looking again at our already tight cost base... Other schools nationally and locally have taken more drastic cost cutting action, from closing early on Fridays to lengthening school holidays. A number have asked parents to contribute financially to the running of their schools and, whilst we are not doing so now, this clearly remains an option."

It. is. absurd.
We were (past tense) the 5th strongest economy yet cannot fund schools or hospitals.Yet we can find billions to buy support of the DUP, fight legal cases to try and circumvent parliamentary process, hold unnecessary elections and recruit 1000's of civil servants to implement this exit into the unknown. Thereby we jeopardise the GFA, lose businesses,jobs jobs and services hand over fist, and trash the economy.
I still can't believe this is happening.Feeling disheartened and despairing today,especially after shouting match with UKIPesque FIL over the weekend.

Cherrypi · 16/10/2017 22:24

Thirteen of our local libraries are potentially closing leaving four. Sad The problem is there's not much left to cut in the next recession.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 22:25

m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59e4ee12e4b0a52aca19c86e/amp
Theresa May Had 7 Article 50 Goals - And She's Failed All Of Them
This will make that dinner in Brussels pretty awkward.

Theresa May has failed to stick to any of the seven targets she set her Government in her letter to Brussels triggering Article 50.

Juncker and May agree to accelerate talks. So it sounds like they didn't fall out at least.

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RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 22:29

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/crunching-the-numbers-are-voters-really-turning-against-brexit
Crunching the numbers: Are voters really turning against Brexit?

Peter Kellner is ex yougov president. This piece is for Labour's prospect magazine.

Tom newton dunn @ tnewtondunn
Big claim by Peter Kellner: working people are turning against Brexit. 44% C2DEs now against it, up from 37% in Aug;

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RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 22:41

Jason Ashford @ jasonashford89
Whatever your political view on the border, you have to be impressed by the fact it's hurricane proof.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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lonelyplanetmum · 16/10/2017 22:44

"In response to May’s diplomatic efforts, the official said: “What the British have in mind is some sort of stage one and a half. Not sufficient progress but you can start talks on negotiations on the transition.That is not going to happen because I think in the capitals they are very much in touch with this idea that we have a staged approach. We were very specific when it came to the guidelines what we meant by the first phase.”

The only positive bit was footage of Juncker kissing May as she left and bear-hugging Davis. That is a change since that frosty London based dinner party when the staged approach was discussed previously.