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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 22:45

Lucy Fisher @ LOS_Fisher
EXCL: 15-year time limit on new peerages to be announced as key plank of plan to reduce size of House of Lords

Lead in Times tomorrow.

OP posts:
prettybird · 16/10/2017 22:46

"The prime minister and the president of the European Commission reviewed the progress made in the Article 50 negotiations so far and agreed that these efforts should accelerate over the months to come," the [joint] statement read.

The way this is being presented on BBC (and other media), it is the EU* who should accelerate. No suggestion that it is the UK who needs to accelerate its efforts Confused*

lonelyplanetmum · 16/10/2017 23:01

Thinking about it, the frosty Downing street Junker/May dinner was in May before the election.(That was the dinner where some one said the PM wasn't from Mars but a distant galaxy.)

At that point Teresa:
1.Wanted to discuss future trade arrangements first then the divorce bill.
2.Was still using EU citizens in the UK, saying they'd be like any other foreign national.
3.Was needling the EU,saying that we owed nothing at all to the union.

So from May to October we have moved on 2 and 3 have we, and shifted on 1 to talking about transition?

Headfullofdreams · 16/10/2017 23:20

Lonelyplanetmum, I feel exactly the same. I had a very heated discussion with the Daily Fail- reading, Brexit-voting MIL yesterday. I've bit my lip previously but have had enough of this shit show and the damage it has caused to our futures.

lonelyplanetmum · 16/10/2017 23:31

I actually cried after the row Headfullofdreams. I too had bitten my lip previouly. I know you are supposed to find common ground with the person you are debating with so that they are more prepared listen etc but I just lost it.

He started it by reading the paper and saying angrily "There're saying we are refusing to settle our bar bill.They should be paying us back-why aren't they giving us money!"
I just responded with equal anger and drew him a diagram showing how much our 1% of EU contribution is dwarfed by other domestic payments and illustrated what we got access to in return.Hope you weren't too upset by your MIL.
NOT looking forward to seeing FIL next at Christmas.

BowlingShoes · 17/10/2017 01:27

An enjoyable point-by-point critique of John Redwood's piece of crap article in The Sun on the Another Angry Voice blog if anyone wants to read it.

anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/john-redwood-is-spewing-delusional.html

Some snippets:
"Theresa May can and should turn the tables on the unhelpful EU at next week’s meeting. She can tell them the UK is preparing to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, with no deal."

Theresa May has been spewing her reckless "no deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric for months, but it doesn't work. The EU27 are unified and they're not going to budge because her "no deal" threats are completely delusional. It's like threatening your neighbours that you'll burn down your own house in the hope that they suffer some disruption and smoke damage.

"The problem for the EU states is they export a lot of food to us."

That the UK has a vast trade deficit with the EU is not a problem for the EU, it's a problem for us.

"The Government will be able to give us all a tax cut out of the tariff ­revenue it collects, so we need not be worse off."

Ah ha ha ha. We'll all have to pay the cost of tariffs on our supermarket shopping, and we're to trust the Tories to redistribute that wealth back to us, rather than distribute it to their billionaire backers in tax cuts for corporations and the mega-rich. If you believe that, you'll believe anything!

mathanxiety · 17/10/2017 06:13

LonelyPlanetMum
So from May to October we have moved on 2 and 3 have we, and shifted on 1 to talking about transition?

You would think she had not lost an election in the meantime, and was not hanging onto power by the skin of her teeth bribing the DUP . Chutzpah is not the word here. Is she in denial?

Who does she think she is fooling? Everyone in the EU knows TM wants to bypass all the thorny issues because she presides over a cabinet that can't agree on any of them, or does not know what it wants as an outcome (what to pay the EU and what exactly the relationship with the EU should be after Brexit) or can't for the life of it figure out how to achieve an end it has said it wants (in the case of the NI border).

Of course she wants a 'transition'. But she will first have to nail down exactly what that is and what it is transitioning into - and again, she has so little sway in her own cabinet that the EU can 'whistle' for insight from Westminster into what a transition might entail.

Basically she is saying 'Indulge us while we get our act together,' or alternatively, 'Put your business and agriculture leaders on hold for a few years with no guarantee that we won't implode in the heel of the hunt.'

Cailleach1 · 17/10/2017 06:31

Hold the horses. Redwood is taking about collecting tariffs. The rest of the posse is talking about removing all import tariffs. That is their angle; that tariffs are protectionism and an impediment to their big free trade vision. Their guru Minford, too. Hold the requiem for British farming and manufacturing. But it a price worth paying, according to Minford. They are always worried about the developing world and how tariffs are slapped onto their produce. They call the EU a big protectionist racket.

Anyway, the big impediments to trade will be the non tariff barriers. But the UK will have no standards to conform to, so all good. Other trading nations won't in turn be fussed about importing goods from the UK that don't conform to any standards, I suppose. Or with dodgy chains of origin.

I remind myself what Major called these lying loopers many moons ago.

www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/02/17/patrick-minford-uks-chancellor-is-economic-illiterate-over-post-brexit-trade/#55d2e75531d5

A British market "flooded with less expensive goods from elsewhere" would immediately put European exporters at a disadvantage, Prof Minford argues in his introduction to the report.

The Cardiff University academic has already provoked controversy by suggesting that Brexit will "eliminate manufacturing" and leave an economy made up of industries such as "design, marketing and tech".

The cross-party pro-European group Open Britain dismissed Prof Minford's suggestions as "economic suicide".

But a reply from an unbeliever. Does she not realise it is totally good to cut off your nose to try to give the EU a bloody nose?

"Unilaterally scrapping our tariffs without achieving similar reductions in the tariff rates of other countries would see Britain swamped with imports, leaving our manufacturers and farmers unable to compete," said Labour MP Alison McGovern.

"The levels of bankruptcy and unemployment, especially in industry and agriculture, would sky-rocket."

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/88373/removing-tariffs-could-mean-%C2%A3135bn-annual-boost-economy

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 06:58

timworstall

definitely someone to listen to. He used to write a weekly economics blog for "The Register", and frequently showed why (searches for PC terms) really thick people almost invariably misunderstood how economies work. He managed to correctly (and against all expert hype) predict the non-collapse of the tech market when China tried to corner the rare-earth metals market.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 07:06

Opening up UK markets without tariffs is one thing, but it is the non-tariff barriers that cause the delay.
If a desperate UK govt drops all barriers, to fill empty supermarket shelves or to save UK exporters,

they will last until the effects of e.g. the first imports of contaminated baby formula from China
No BBC censorship can stop that news

btw, I remember the BBC during the Falklands War - an actual war, not the result of a internal Tory party spat - and they were far more balanced in coverage
(they stood up to criticism from MrsT & others)
Courage and professionalism seem to have fallen off in the decades since

From the conservative media, Max Hastings was scrupulously reliable and wrote facts "I counted the olanes all out and I counted them all back"

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2017 07:19

What now ?

I expect the EU leaders to agree to "scoping" future trade relations among themselves only, not with the UK.
That could be enough to keep the talk going, or to restart them later after a UK walkout

However, Uk "official leaks" are pessimistic, at least for the short term

The senior civil servant JDD last night posted on North's blog
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86637
that he was signing off for a while because he had just been given 2 hours notice to fly to Brussels

He was either supplying expertise so May could apply further back channel pressure ..... or he was flown to "officially leak" public warnings that May cannot give "further" concessions without something back
The lack of notice suggests a sudden change of plan / panic on UK side.

Anonymous British Official: U.K. Fears Collapse of Brexit Talk Within Weeks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/u-k-is-said-to-see-brexit-breakdown-if-eu-refuses-to-compromise

May spoke to Macron about Brexit in a call on Monday and Merkel on Sunday.
She tried last month to convince the German chancellor that a two-year bridging period after Brexit day would help both sides.

So far EU leaders have refused to widen Barnier’s negotiating mandate to include trade or transition
....
Germany and France had made clear on Friday they wanted to toughen the tone of the summit declaration,
according to an official familiar with the discussions.

Germany has a vested interest in delaying progress in the Brexit talks because Frankfurt is trying to tempt companies away from London,
the person said.

< note: they seem to have decided that negotiator Barnier is the most helpful person on the EU side and making it clear he is not the problem
it is those pesky elected politicians in other countries, putting their own citizens first >

Frankfurt has emerged as the biggest winner in the fight for thousands of London-based jobs that will have to be relocated to new hubs inside the European Union after Brexit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/

< Yes, I'm in the Frankfurt area and it is booming, much optimism of gaining well paid finance jobs from the UK, along with all the service jobs that always accompany such a prosperous influx.
So Germany will force a deal because of cars ..... Hmm doesn't sound like it >

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 07:39

@JolyonMaugham

Have @openDemocracy found the man who subverted our democracy? Well, he's not denying it

www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/pro-union-donors-deny-brexit-dark-money-involvement

borntobequiet · 17/10/2017 08:23

Flowers to lonelyplanetmum
(re the FIL situation)

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 08:30

Flowers lonelyplantmum and headfull on how this is playing out IRL. I see it is with both male and female relations, but power relationships in families get fucked up when public services are dismantled.

No gender breakdowns of those who want to remain in EU and not, but the Leave campaign funders are male, the media owners are male.

It's a partly gendered political crisis, but what isn't. Grin

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 08:30

Listening to R4 this morning, and hearing a German politician demolish any semblance of progress on talks, I found myself wondering if there's space in this game for some zig-zag-zigging.

Bear with me.

Rather than playing the part of "remoaners", what would happen if there were to be a volte face - as if remainers suddenly "got it". Only like ex-smokers, the zeal will be high, and we demand no-deal.

Because I have a sneaking suspicion that for all their bluster, the one thing that petrifies Brexiteers is a no-deal. Especially one bought by UK petulance. It's garlic to their vampire tendencies.

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 08:36

From the conservative media, Max Hastings was scrupulously reliable

Max Hastings may be a respected historian, but he's also a Tory cockwomble.

I think you may have meant the late Brian Hanrahan ??

was scrupulously reliable and wrote facts "I counted the planes all out and I counted them all back"

That quote was not written, it was spoken. The BBC was forced to operate under MoD censorship which meant every report had to be pre-approved. The BBC were not allowed to say how many planes were in the fleet, but that report allowed the public to assess all was well.

Of course nowadays, the report would be even more succinct:

"I counted it out, and I counted it back."

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 08:44

No gender breakdowns of those who want to remain in EU and not

I'd be surprised if there is any statistically significant variation. The negative driving forces behind leave can be ascribed to all.

missmoon · 17/10/2017 08:59

No gender breakdowns of those who want to remain in EU and not

I've done some work on this using the British Election Study. Basically there is no gender variation in the original Leave vote, but there is in the number of people who regret voting Leave. Women are 2 to 3 times more likely to change their vote to Remain.

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 09:08

Women are 2 to 3 times more likely to change their vote to Remain

Consistent with the experiences of WW1 Sad.

Peregrina · 17/10/2017 09:25

the one thing that petrifies Brexiteers is a no-deal.
Not your fanatics like John Redwood.

Women are 2 to 3 times more likely to change their vote to Remain
Because they are more likely to bear the brunt of Brexit.

woman11017 · 17/10/2017 09:30

Thanks missmoon for those stats, and I agree peregrina : Because they are more likely to bear the brunt of Brexit.

LurkingHusband · 17/10/2017 09:38

the one thing that petrifies Brexiteers is a no-deal.

Not your fanatics like John Redwood.

I suspect he's actually a minority-minority.

He might be happy to see a no deal. But the people not quite as committed as him would be prepared to sit on him, if he looked like bringing a no deal about.

As WW2 came to a close, the more swivel-eyed loon Nazis who wanted to continue till Germany was a hole in the ground were quickly put in their place ...

I'm starting to see no-deal Brexit as the WW2 equivalent of being captured by the Russians ... it was fear of that which prompted the German surrender.

It's the one thing remainers can do: push the leavers to the Russian front of Brexit ...

Maybe start by trolling leavers: Why the fuck are you wasting time for some stupid deal ??? The will of the people was clear. We have to be out of Europe. Now. Why are you leavers being so weak, and pathetic that you keep on talking about "a deal" ? Let's just walk away, and have Brexit NOW !!!!!!!

And then at every opportunity just shout them down. Not with any treacherous calls to remain. But with a chorus of voices accusing them of treachery by delaying Brexit - for a single day by negotiating. After all, hostages don't negotiate with their captors ?

Boris Johnson ? Fucking traitor. He should be telling the EU and the whole world "no deal".
David Davies ? Fucking traitor. Wasting precious time when Britain could be becoming Great again, waffling on ... with foreigners for gods sake ?!
Theresa May ? Fucking traitor ...

(I may have read too much Sun Tzu and Caesar Grin)

missmoon · 17/10/2017 09:53

Lurking, it's worth a try!

lonelyplanetmum · 17/10/2017 10:05

Lurking -it's worth a try indeed!

Returning to Redwood why does he even get media time? He should be Deadwood after the Twitter storm six months ago when he said we can buy UK cars instead of German or French ones.I can just see the whole country now,swanning around carefree in thousands of Government subsidised Morgans, Caterams and McClarens with the wind ( not Ophelia) in our hair.

Predictions about fuel prices haven't featured much, but If there is no agreement then WTO tariffs would presumably lead to a further slump in the pound, and then an increase in fuel prices, of 20% according to this article. Plus a recession of course, and foreign investment moving away.Staying within the single market could lead to fuel prices being more stable.

https://www.petrolprices.com/news/brexit-process-impact-fuel-prices//_

lonelyplanetmum · 17/10/2017 10:10

Thanks to Borntobequiet and Woman for the sympathy but, in the scheme of things, it's minor.I never really liked FIL anyway, he's sadly not really interested in any of his grandchildren. It's amazing I have managed a thin veneer of civility for over a decade to be honest.

If there is a gender imbalance over the proposed exit, FIL would be the stereotypical example of that.He definitely believes that purely by virtue of his aged penis he is naturally superior to all women, and that his viewpoint on politics and economics should dominate.(Still I can't talk, as on this subject I believe my view should dominate!)

...And just so I get in first,thanks to Red for threads past, present and future.Such a valuable regular sanctuary.