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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Cailleach1 · 16/10/2017 10:51

David Davis explicitly stated that any deal would be delivering the exact same benefits as the single market and customs union. He is wrapping this up. Otherwise he would have peddled false statements which he portrayed as being within his control.

The thing about extending the role of French officials is that they would be operating on UK soil. So taking back control of the borders would turn out to be increasing the role of foreign officials physically within the UK.

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 10:56

The thing about extending the role of French officials is that they would be operating on UK soil.

Again, no disrespect, but has anyone asked them ? I'm struggling to imagine how many zeros would have to be added to my remuneration to persuade me to move to a country that has openly stated it doesn't want me, to do a job that it can't do ?

I'm too old for decorum. I would just openly piss my pants if the section of French officials that was sent were of African descent - and Muslim to boot.

I suspect we're straying into hypotheticals here. But I do get a sense of Brexit logic being pushed until it shatters.

Cailleach1 · 16/10/2017 10:57

And I imagine they hate having to dine with Barnier and Junker. The Council have delegated Brexit to the Commission. And the EP have a vote on the deal. Con's wanted to make it political rather than technical. They wanted there to be direct argy bargy with the EU27 leaders in the Council. Not to be relegated to where most of the nitty gritty negotiations about trade happens.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 10:59

Nick Gutteridge‏*@nick*_gutteridge

So both DD and now Boris have made direct pleas to EU leaders to 'see reason' over their negotiating mandate. Seems to be a concerted effort to draw fire away from Barnier, who could temporarily become one of UK's biggest allies.

Barnier, the UK's ally.

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Cailleach1 · 16/10/2017 11:05

Oh, I'd imagine the French would tell them to do one. Especially if they want to extend their own ops on French soil. It is a British who are raising it as a solution for themselves. Instead of extending 'Le Touquet' , they might get a short shrift on it altogether. As a third country, the compromises which keep things nice and harmonious in a bloc might not have to be so delicately considered. The Cons also want the Irish gov't and the other EU countries to solve their NI border issue. There is a little bit of a pattern here.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 11:07

Jay Rayner‏ @jayrayner1
For the sake of detail here is what Chris Grayling said yesterday about us having to grow more 1/
In one respect he's right. Britain needs to produce more. Our self sufficiency is down to around 60%. 2/
But you can't just say 'grow more' without understanding the mechanisms of agri. That it's a long term business demanding investment 3/
Investment which has been stymied by a dysfunctional retail setor which has fetishised price over continuity of supply 4/
And been allowed to do so by a toothless grocery codes adjudicator which fails to recognise how food supply chains work. 5/
At the same time it fails to recognise that a lot of food produced here is dependent on imports of feeds, fertilisers etc 6/
For example some parts of horticulture are dependent on imports for 95% of their seedlings. No deal brexit means disaster for that 7/
No deal Brexit presumably means an end to freedom of movement. Over 90% of vets in slaughter houses come from abroad 8/
A no deal brexit means that under our own FSA rules, we can no longer slaughter. A few examples of the emptiness to Graylings comment 9/

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RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 11:21

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanielJHannan
What made us the world's richest nation? We removed trade barriers and so put money into ordinary people's pockets.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/free-trade-will-always-enrich-country/
Free trade will always enrich our country. If we can't embrace it now, Brexit was pointless

What REALLY made us the world's richest nation?

Law and policy‏*@davidallengreen*

Being the first industrialised nation, with protection of Royal Navy, and with colonial resources obtained by force.

Not easy to repeat.

So there you have it Brexit is pointless and is based on a glaring inability to grasp our British history, because of rose tinted specs and not being honest about the darker side of our colonial past.

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woman11017 · 16/10/2017 11:37

bye bye NHS post from last night.

This morning on Radio 5, was item on the need for everyone to learn CPR as it's so difficult to get ambulances in time to people having heart attacks.

I've learnt CPR, would gladly, use it in emergency, but there's a reason I'm not a medic. Grin I'd be crap at it.

Grow your own, and sort out your own CPR.

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 11:49

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanielJHannan What made us the world's richest nation?

The problem is that when Britain was the richest nation on earth, it had some of the most impoverished citizens in the world. Even now, some 60% of voters really don't feel any benefit from living in one of the worlds richest countries.

Theworldisfullofidiots · 16/10/2017 12:37

Daniel Hannan makes my skin crawl. Not logical I know and not nice. I just think he'd be slimy to the touch.
He also talks rubbish.

prettybird · 16/10/2017 12:59

Indeed Sad

Have a look at the history of indigo in India to understand more about how the "riches" of the Empire were built HmmAngry

LewisThere · 16/10/2017 13:19

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/britain-490-billion-pounds-poorer-ons-figures-uk-brexit-talks-position-revision-gdp-a8002871.html

So apparently, according the ONS, we've lost £490 billions.
I don't know about you but suddenly, the £60b looks very small indeed.....

The figures come just ahead of Chancellor Philip Hammond’s November Budget. Mr Hammond is under pressure to show how the country would cope if we left the EU without a deal.
Well he might not be able to show anything, or anything else that total collapse.....

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 13:29

If anyone has time (and hasn't already read it) there's a good novel "Sarum" by Edward Rutherford, which traces the interconnected fates of families around Salisbury from prehistoric to modern day.

(For me) one of the more memorable scenes is where US descendants of one family are returned to Salisbury during the war as GIs. And all onf a sudden the native Brits see that for all the boasted wealth of Empire, the vast majority of people in Britain were dirt poor. Which the visiting Americans highlighted by having access to "luxuries" that few in Britain - the richest country in the world - could afford.

GlassOfPort · 16/10/2017 13:58

Can someone explain to me the disappearance of £490bn? Confused

I understand the part about foreign investement plummeting, but the preceding paragraph was very technical

PattyPenguin · 16/10/2017 14:13

The £490bn may not have disappeared, because it may never have existed.

More on the notayesman economic blog:
notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2017/10/16/has-the-uk-just-lost-490-billion-as-claimed-in-the-daily-telegraph/

The ONS is trying to measure things more effectively, although whether it is succeeding would appear to be anyone's guess.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2017 14:19

www.politico.eu/article/brexiteers-fear-swiss-trap-deal-for-britain/
Brexiteers fear swiss trap trade deal.

I could live with a swiss arrangement. Not ideal, but better than some of the other alternatives.

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LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 14:25

Just pondering on Mays desperate Brussels trip ...

What power or authority will she have to do anything to break any UK produced deadlock ? Even if she had the ability to stitch up a secret deal (which she hasn't) surely she hasn't got the power ???

Anything she puts on the table will have to run the gauntlet of extreme Brexiteers like Johnson, and non-Brexiteers (let's face it) like Hammond.

The whole UK government stance seems to be the same mindset as people who spend money like water because they know they'll win the lottery when it really matters (I have met such people Shock) .

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 14:27

I could live with a swiss arrangement. Not ideal, but better than some of the other alternatives.

The more unpalatable it would be to the Johnsons, Farages and Foxes of this world, the more I would like it.

Petty ? Probably. But then I'm seeing the rest of my life pissed away by their antics. So you'll forgive me for not feeling very conciliatory.

woman11017 · 16/10/2017 14:29

@acgrayling
Latest YouGov poll: ‘66% view Brexit as one of the biggest issues that could negatively impact the health of the UK economy.’

GlassOfPort · 16/10/2017 14:34

Thank you Patty, I have looked at the link and see what you mean...the underlying data is so muddled that it's impossible to draw any meaningful conlcusion.
So, the Torygraph article was basically clik-bait what a surprise

Badders08 · 16/10/2017 14:42

I wonder how many of that 66% think it's a price they are willing to pay?....

Badders08 · 16/10/2017 14:43

(That is, brexiteer nutters)

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 15:11

I wonder how many of that 66% think it's a price they are willing to pay?..

As long as other people are suffering, probably 100% Hmm.

RhiannonOHara · 16/10/2017 15:16

I could live with a swiss arrangement.

Me too. Will be thoroughly aggrieved though if it means even short-term disruption and downturns (which I know are starting to happen already).

The swivel-eyed loons will come for May if that happens. Apart from the terrible question of who the actual fuck would replace her, I can't say I give a fig.

LurkingHusband · 16/10/2017 15:20

I could live with a swiss arrangement.

Which suggests an Alice in Wonderland situation where more Remainers are happier with the outcome than Brexiteers.

It would be hollow comfort in the knowledge of what we have pissed away lost. But such sweet dew as e'er I supped; the taste of mine enemies dreams a-fucked.