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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
woman11017 · 15/10/2017 10:09

the list of some of them:

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
LurkingHusband · 15/10/2017 10:28

Replies from the BBC (possibly an early adopter of Artificial Insouciance) have been written to the formula:

  1. Sympathy;
  2. A detailed explanation of why you are utterly wrong;
  3. A veiled suggestion that no one else complained;
  4. Some piffle about how important customer feedback is;
  5. Finish off with a bit of dick swinging about awards, and commitment to excellence;
  6. Suggestions as to how to fuck off if you're not satisfied.

When I was going for fast-track management jobs in the 80s, one of the common tests was to write letters like that. longhand. Does anyone remember having to draft the swimming pool manager response to a complaint about vending machines ?

Badders08 · 15/10/2017 10:35

Generic reply to e mail so have escalated to official complaint...
I may have suggested the BBC is now the official news service for the far right....😁✊

LurkingHusband · 15/10/2017 10:42

Generic reply to e mail so have escalated to official complaint...

I didn't see that coming Grin

Let use know when (or if) the reply actually indicates they read your original complaint. (Another dalliance with corporate management showed me how to write a boilerplate template that looks personalised but can be generated by a mailmerge with the complainants details.)

Badders08 · 15/10/2017 10:45

😁 I'm contemplating buying Nick Clegg book....

prettybird · 15/10/2017 11:32

Can't read mist of the article as it's behind the paywall but the Brexiters are definitely getting rattled, with Janet Daley frothing at the mouth about all the "fear mongering" from nasty Remainers who insulted Leave voters' intelligence by pointing out the potential problems.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/public-running-patience-insolent-remainers-drum-fake-brexit/

Peregrina · 15/10/2017 12:53

it now gleefully circulates stories of planes having to circle endlessly in the air like the Flying Dutchman because they are unable to land and lorries trapped in an endless purgatory at Dover.

This was the only bit I was able to read of the Telegraph article. I have not heard any Remainer talking about planes circulating. I have heard the Norths, who may be obnoxious people, but are at least well informed Leavers, talking about planes not being able to fly.

DrivenToDespair · 15/10/2017 13:08

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DrivenToDespair · 15/10/2017 13:15

This reply has been deleted

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Cailleach1 · 15/10/2017 13:38

I don't think the BBC are reporting very well on the one big issue for this country. I changed back and forth between Sky and BBC news. A few minutes in and Sky did report. I don't think the BBC did at all. Fair enough, there were issues reported on. First item Weinstein, then secondly the couple who had been released from kidnapping in Afghanistan. The second is world news, but had been reported on the day before, too. I can't remember what they linked to in the papers, but sports news was on when I flicked back.

Question Time was the first in a while that some bs was stopped. Whatever you think of john O'Dowd's politics, at least he set Villiers right when she segued into 'the common travel' area and how there was no issue with a border. This being separate from the border. There was a border between Ireland of NI from 1921/23 until the in 1993 the single market did away with the need for any operational customs posts. Even with a customs union there is a border. See Turkey. On Marr, again Chris Grayling diverted into the Common Travel Area when asked about the border. There were border checks while the Common Travel Area existed. I'll scream if they divert into this nonsense again muddling the issue of border checks and the Common Travel Area while out of Customs Union and Single Market.

Theresa Villiers sure spouted a whole of rubbish. She had a little list to read out of companies on board with Brexit. She mentioned Astra Zeneca. I thought I read something about where they were a bit worried. It'll be great sort of thing. Chris Grayling said that the open skies thing was nothing to worry about. Most of the worlds planes fly outside of the open skies. Do they operate right across Europe outside of open skies? Mentioned that Air France-KLM had invested in Virgin Atlantic. I don't think Virgin Atlantic operate across Europe, either. Oops, they use Boeing and Airbus. They divert into canards.

Cailleach1 · 15/10/2017 13:50

Has there been a Treasury report? This is from Sam Coates, twitter.

Treasury believes no deal cd mean £60bn drop in tax revenue a year = austerity on massive scale. Do “no deal” supporters hv their own figure

twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/919132263497043968

But everyone is 10 billion a year up. Lots of lolly for NHS. and farmers, and education, and can be used again, and again, and again. Never-ending, ad nauseum.

If education is starved of 'nuff money, maybe no one can take 60 down, add 10 and get a number of 50 down. Billions, that is.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 14:16

Individual E27 govts, e.g. Sweden, Germany,
commissioned and published reports on how Brexit will affect their country.

The EU Parliament commissioned this

Assessment of economic aspect of Brexit on E27
(issued March 2017)

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOLSTU(2017)5953744_EN.pdf

The govt of the country that will by far be affected the most - the UK - was late commissioning its report(s)
and is still refusing to publish them

The E27 will have a pretty good idea of the effects on the Uk - probably better than the Uk does
It is only the UK public that the govt intend to keep in the dark

Gross irresponsibility and incompetence, followed by outrageous cowardice and party political calculation

RedToothBrush · 15/10/2017 14:32

Nick Gutterridge @ nick_gutterridge
Have to say, this doesn't ring true for me or fit anything I've heard. Suspect source for it is from British side.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4981182/amp/Barnier-ready-push-UK-cliff.html
Barnier is ready to push the UK off a cliff: Top EU negotiator is 'happy' to see a hard Brexit because he wants to punish Britain for quitting

Thats nick of the express btw...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 15/10/2017 14:36

I have not heard any Remainer talking about planes circulating.

We recently were not able to take off because planes were blocking air space enroute and the flight needed to book a new landing slot.

If an airline thinjs a plane might get stuck in the uk, they'd not take the risk.

Maybe remainers understand air traffic control...

OP posts:
OlennasWimple · 15/10/2017 14:46

Is this part of an attempt to "normalise" Jacob R-M?

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 15:05

red It's not so much a matter of risk, but of legality:

All agreements, including Open Skies etc, negotiated by the EU no longer apply to the UK one minute after Brexit

Without negotiating new legal agreements to take off, overfly, land in other countries, UK civil aviation flights would be illegal
Airlines will not risk taking advance bookings for a time period in which takeoff, landing or overflight might be illegal

Hence why they are agitating for the govt to negotiate new agreements v quickly
O'Leary says RyanAir organises planes 12 months in advance of flights. Other airlines probably have comparable lead times.

O'Leary is well aware of legal rules wrt flying - having spent so much time trying to circumvent them Grin

prettybird · 15/10/2017 16:18

AKAIK the "Open Skies" agreement or rather lack of doesn't just affect flights within the EU - it would affect UK flights world-wide as our current agreements are via the EU Shock

I'm sure a last minute fudge will be cobbled together to ensure that all UK international commercial flights are not grounded, but given the way that our glorious leadership is sticking its head in the sand, that can't be taken for granted Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 16:28

yup, the issue is Uk international civil flights to anywhere, not just the E27

The new agreements need to be ready in time to allow 12 months for the airlines to organise their planes, plus time for for advance bookings.
That means pretty soon

Cailleach1 · 15/10/2017 16:35

How on earth did this referendum get put through Parliament as an advisory referendum and then become binding? How was it not plainly spelt out exactly what people were voting for? How was it not discussed thoroughly in the media and how were lies allowed to stand?

I will always be amazed at how it was run. Cameron handed the country and his party to the few extremists. Chris Grayling kept saying on Marr that the cabinet were united. Why should anyone care how united the Conservative party are if they are going to send everyone down the Swanee? After watching Simon Reeve's programme on Russia, a thought of the UK being pickings for a few the oligarchs could also result in a dearth of investment in certain places. Akin to Tuva. Would that be Wales, or NI, or Cornwall, or the north of England. Scotland has the oil so that is Siberia. On not quite such a dramatic scale.

Cailleach1 · 15/10/2017 16:42

Relax. Chris Grayling said it was all going to be fine. On the telly.

HashiAsLarry · 15/10/2017 16:49

Ah caill you don't understand. It wasn't an advisory referendum. It said that somewhere but the words of Cameron overrode that don't you know? Because words are always more binding than actual written contracts/laws/etc.

Well according to some anyway. I'll be back when I stop banging my head on the nearest table.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 17:24

We need to call out Brexit govt LIES

Take e.g. David Davis ... OK, I realise noone wants to

DD article on ConservativeHome just after the referendum:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/david-davis-trade-deals-tax-cuts-and-taking-time-before-triggering-article-50-a-brexit-economic-strategy-for-britain.html

"So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly.

I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals Grin with all our most favoured trade partners.

I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months Grin

So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete,
and therefore before anything material has changed,
we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU Grin

Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others."

Grin How many deals so far , DD ? Yes, NONE

DD in Feb 2016:
"Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market."

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/02/david-davis-britain-would-be-better-off-out-of-the-eu-and-heres-why.html

DD also said:
"[after Brexit]There is nothing to stop us supporting our indigenous car industry to make it more competitive if we so chose." Hmm
< except maybe that other WTO countries won't accept such unfair competition, so won't trade in other areas >

Indigenous car industry?
So NOT:
.Mini (German)
.Vauxhall (was US, now French)
.Nissan (Japanese & French)
.Ford (US)
.Rolls Royce (German)
.Bentley (German)
.Jaguar Land Rover (Indian)

... does he mean Morgan and TVR ? Hmm

Peregrina · 15/10/2017 17:24

How on earth did this referendum get put through Parliament as an advisory referendum and then become binding?

Largely through Cameron's panic resignation I think. No one appeared to be thinking straight that summer. Now with May in charge, it's more a question of her inflexible approach, having set her stall out to offer Brexit, she has to go through with it.

Badders08 · 15/10/2017 17:31

Does the average leave voter realise yet that the architects of leave will be unaffected by brexit
Their wealth will cushion them and their children from the worst...no chlorinated chicken for them!
😡😡😡

BiglyBadgers · 15/10/2017 17:32

Because words are always more binding than actual written contracts/laws/etc.

Unless it's Boris bloody Johnson who can apparently say whatever he damn well likes with no consequences because, you know, it's just Boris being Boris Hmm