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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Thread gallery
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LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 17:13

Another mischievous suggestion form the ether that Theresa May could sack both Boris and Phillip Hammond in (balanced) demonstration that she's in charge.

Or just swap them over ... I doubt the rest of the world would notice.

Or care, come to that.

Mightybanhammer · 14/10/2017 18:26

From Richard Notth's blog ( can't link)

Standing back from this, we are entrapped in the debate of the insane. The one thing we're not short of is commentary. From the lowest to the highest, everybody has an opinion. And everybody seems content to accept the terminology at face value, without seeking clarification or further depth.

In short, no-one actually knows what they're talking about or, to be more precise, people are talking about the same things using different vocabulary and meaning different things, or even the same things described with different words.

This is no way to conduct one of the most important political debates since the war. There is no clarity, no comprehension, no continuity – and no progress, however that is defined.

The debate of the insane. Quite.

Mightybanhammer · 14/10/2017 18:26

North's

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 18:39

britainelects.com/2017/10/14/labour-would-now-be-the-largest-party-if-election-were-held-today/
Labour would now be the largest party if election were held today

Our forecast (or 'nowcast') puts Labour on for 294 seats to 283 for the Conservatives with the most recent polls ending as of 11 October.

Notable seats they have changing hands:

Hastings and Rye
Richmond Park
Broxtowe
Putney
Chingford and Woodford Green

Some big scalps there.

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RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 18:57

Chipping Barnet too

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RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 18:59

www.heraldscotland.com/news/15596498.No_deal_Brexit____to_trigger_a_new_vote_on_Union_____says_Scotland___s_leading_EU_expert/
No-deal Brexit ‘to trigger a new vote on Union’, says Scotland’s leading EU expert

Ross Colquhoun @ rosscolquhoun
According to a former aide to David Davis, @Number10gov analysis shows Scotland will be worst hit by Brexit.

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TheElementsSong · 14/10/2017 19:08

because it would infringe WTO rules of equal treatment

But Brexiteers keep saying that crashing out with no deal, whilst flicking V's at the EU, and "going to WTO rules" is going to be bloody marvellous!

Holliewantstobehot · 14/10/2017 20:08

So three losses in Cornwall - Camborne and Redruth and Truro and Falmouth to Labour then StIves to LibDems. About time.

Interestingly although Cornwall voted to leave overall both Truro and Falmouth apparently voted remain. JC came down this summer so think we can expect more visitors from all sides in the future. But then we have always been three way marginal. Met Paul boateng in the 2005 election campaign. He seemed a really nice person.

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 20:17

Tim Weisselberg‏*@crosscrosslet*

So brexit supporters want Hammond sacked because he won't spend money on things they dismiss as "project fear" and say won't happen.

Rinse and Repeat

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TheElementsSong · 14/10/2017 20:33

So brexit supporters want Hammond sacked because he won't spend money on things they dismiss as "project fear" and say won't happen.

Very good point!

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 20:41

@stopbrexithour 2h2 hours ago
Sunday 6-7pm is #StopBrexitHour and this week we welcome @jameschappers to answer your Q’s live! Join us!

I was particularly looking forward to StopBrexitHour this week, anyway Smile As it would appear that we might be well on the way to doing so.
< fingers and toes crossed>

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 20:55

Looks like there were good marches across the country today. Smile
Another site:
helpstopbrexit.com/wp/

@J_amesp
Russia harnessed the far-right, greed, and data to disrupt the UK, US, EU & NATO in an act of war
#AlternativeWar

There's talk of a film version of this book: Alternative War. ^

Hope there's film version of this book too, soon. Smile
www.nhbs.com/the-orchid-hunter-book

He seemed a really nice person
JC visited friend's cousin's immigration law practice recently. Nice fellow apparently, too.

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 23:47

Eurosluggard @ Eurosluggard
Liberal Leavers had a plan. It would never have won competing in a straight 2-way fight against the status quo.
If EUref ballot had offered Remain vs Flexcit-type plan (move to EFTA/EEA for long time), result would have been maybe 70/30 for Remain (?).
The fact is Leave won EUref by amassing 52%., which it only did by appealing to ppl who wanted contradictory things.
#SchroedingersBrexit: simultaneously encompassing a multitude of mutually exclusive possibilities, appealing to different groups...
For example, #SchroedingersBrexit = 1) small govt free-trading Singapore-on-Thames 2) protectionist English ethnostate & 3) socialist Lexit
That’s wonderful as a campaigning tool for winning a binary vote when the country’s mood is already tilted towards political insurrection...
...but it’s fuck-all use afterwards when you actually have to deliver on the wild (& mutually incompatible) expectations you have exploited.
On having to deliver something (ie triggering A50 & negotiating), Schroedinger’s Brexit becomes a millstone; the coalition disintegrates.
[Short digression: of course, blame for all the deficiencies in the EUref process lies mainly with CaMoron, not with the Leave side.]
But Liberal Leavers have been disgracefully irresponsible. Rode tiger of nativist populism. We wouldn’t be staring into the abyss otherwise.
And now they have the temerity to wring their hands about how badly it’s all going. “It’s a shambles - but nothing to do with us, guv.”
If our country is now imperilled by the risk of catastrophic hard Brexit, that’s in no small part due to decisions made by Liberal Leavers.
We wouldn’t find ourselves in this mess if they hadn’t colluded with bigots, zealots & fanatics. But they take no responsibility whatsoever.
I admire ppl who admit their mistakes & take responsibility for them. I think it’s important to do so. Never get that from Liberal Leavers.
Liberal Leavers are among the most arrogant, smug, self-satisfied ppl I have met on twitter. They say this:

Sam Hooper @ samhooper
This makes pragmatic Brexiteers and those Remainers who haven't gone insane allies of necessity at this time. We must work together.

Eurosluggard @ Eurosluggard
Liberal Leavers also say things like this:
Remainers who are still angry are “indistinguishable from hard Brexiters”

Sam Hooper @ samhooper
The warm glow of self-righteousness that they feel as they become indistinguishable from Hard Brexiters is intoxicating as it is destructive

Eurosluggard @ Eurosluggard
When they say Remainers should work with them to get our country out of the mess they helped put it in, I’d like to know two things...
a) what compromise they are offering (compared to their original aim) & b) how they are taking responsibility for getting us into this mess.
Sure I’ll work to avert the catastrophic car crash we face thanks to you self-satisfied twats having handed the car keys to maniacs but...
I am not going to let you off the hook & give your consciences an easy ride by shutting up about the fact that you are deeply culpable.
I want to hear some contrition & humility from you twats. You could see the insanity of some of the ppl on your EUref side, but pressed on.
And if you don’t like being asked to take some responsibility for the dire state the country finds itself in, tough. Deal with it.
Lastly, if the disastrous mess being made of Brexit means it collapses altogether, good.

Elements of this I agree with. Elements I don't. I personally believe for the most part that the inquest into who fucked up and who should be blamed needs to less confrontational than this. Pride comes before a fall. I think we don't have the luxury of it, and when we do ask of leavers 'how are you going to take responsibility for your crock of shit' we run the risk of being arrogant.

We need to ask questions and point out whats failed / failing whilst not looking people in the eye about their role in it.

The inquiry comes years from now...

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mathanxiety · 15/10/2017 00:06

i.pinimg.com/originals/c6/e9/3c/c6e93c930e0c2697fdb5d163a14b1973.jpg From the Times

The late Boris Fyodorov www.rferl.org/a/Remembering_Boris_Fyodorov/1351542.html (Economist)
Without a moral basis, he said, capitalism would just become the means by which the powerful would concentrate their wealth.
While the Economist stops there, I think it is very necessary to point out that this is not just the case in Russia. Otherwise it is heavily implied that only in Russia would 1% of the population control a vastly disproportionate share of the wealth, means of production and capacity to influence political life, whereas it is perfectly ok now, since Citizens United, for a corporation to be a political actor, and for a lobbying group that is composed of vulture capitalists answerable to nobody to have a foot in the door of government during Brexit negotiations, with one of its hangers-on in charge of contingency planning, or should the role be called 'paving the way for his vulture capitalist friends to swoop in as they sought to do in Russia during the chaotic, and venal, Yeltsin era'? The Legatum actors have done this before. They cut their teeth in post Soviet Russia, and they will seek to do the same looting in the UK that they did there.

www.rferl.org/a/Remembering_Boris_Fyodorov/1351542.html (Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty)
It's a shame -- one of the honest voices, both about the mistakes of the Yeltsin era and the venality of the early Putin era, is now silent forever.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, a long-time friend of Fyodorov's, spoke to RFE/RL's Russian Service yesterday: "He was on Gazprom's board of directors -- not as a state representative, but representing minority shareholders.
Minority shareholders = the Chandlers, now 'Legatum'.
(If they are not welcome in the UK, why should they have been welcome in Russia?)

It is obviously worth pointing out what use can be made of much the same material by authors with differing povs, and this is of course facilitated by the lack of ground level knowledge of Russia - it makes it possible to project all sorts of scenarios that may or may not hold water, such as "Russia harnessed the far-right, greed, and data to disrupt the UK, US, EU & NATO in an act of war".

I do not think we need to look as far as Russia to find little groups of very rich people or very rich individuals actively engaged in destroying civil society as we know it, or the institutions that guarantee it in western Europe (the EU for instance). I think we are looking east for culprits when we should be looking west, and in our own woodwork. Legatum is a home grown, privately financed pressure group.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 01:49

imo, "Liberal" Leavers is the wrong term, certainly for the Norths

They are the intelligent part of the old-fashioned right wing of the Tory party, who are British nationalists, climate change deniers, many also anti-immigration and with racist views e.g. P North and "detritus"

They hate the (temporary) modernisers of the Tory party like Cameron & Osbourne for updating the party's policies on climate change, gay rights, immigration, accepting membership of an EU in which the UK was only the #3 power

  • they only want organisations that England` can dominate, like... well the UK
They do agree with the modernisers on austerity and benefit cuts.

Where they differ from the Brexiters is in having a deep knowledge of the EU they hate
so they know it would take 10 years+ to disengage without significant & lasting damage to the economy (which of course British nationalist never wanted)
Also, they are not working for the vulture capitalists (who plan to loot a damaged country)

However, even knowing the damage of a non-EEA/EFTA Brexit to the economy and to ordinary people, some of these intelligent Leavers like P North still prefer it to not having won the EU ref, or to the govt choosing to Remain.
because these Leavers are also rightwing fanatics, just intelligent & well-informed ones

Also, some of their agony now isn't just the economic damage of Brexit to the country
but that they fear it will bring in a Labour govt - especially their bogeyman JC - who will move the country leftwards for a generation, rebuild the welfare state and trade union power.

So, although I and others here often quote the facts and expert analysis of R North especially
be aware that these are NOT people like us, not people who just weighed up Leave / Remain benefits differently

Any common cause with them is not an alliance with "liberal" Leavers, but more comparable to the temporary wartime alliance with Stalin to fight the more immediate & dangerous threat of Hitler

So, we share very limited common aim
but almost all Westinistenders would find more congenial allies among Tory Remainers (who are mostly liberal or moderate Tories),
or among moderate Lexiters who would also prefer EEA/EFTA, if they become fully aware of the damage that a WTO Brexit would cause ordinary people

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 03:11

STILL priritisimg party politics Angry

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/14/cross-party-group-no-deal-theresa-may-brexit-eu

Tory MPS who oppose a hard Brexit have declared they will not back any amendments tabled by Labour’s frontbench and bearing Jeremy Corbyn’s name,
but say they would be prepared to line up with amendments from like-minded Labour backbenchers.

mathanxiety · 15/10/2017 03:26

Fiddling while Rome burns.

BigChocFrenzy · 15/10/2017 03:45

That article is ovrly optimistic, imo

it is unclear how this alliance of MPs could stop the govt from simply letting the A50 clock run out
without ever getting as far as a proposed deal

The "alliance' plan seems to be to wait for a vote on deal / no deal and then to refuse to vote for a no deal Brexit.
However, what happens if the negotiations remain basically as they are, without any deal on the table ?

There might not be any govt motion proposed , to vote against.

Do these MPs plan to table their own motion somehow for a deal that has not been for ally offered by the EU because negotiations never got that far Hmm ?

or for EEA / EFTA, which actually has to be applied for first, to EFTA and the EU ?

There is no prospect of the magical unicorn deal that would be required to avoid the govt being brought down by Tory Ultras and / or the DUP
and
the govt may not ever need a vote on just continuing to do nothing wrt negotiations

So MPs aren't being honest about what kind of vote they would probably need to force.

All they could realistically do in the absence of any deal is to table a motion sometime before March 2019,
maybe an emergency motion that the Speaker would need to approve,
demanding that the govt reverse A50, or at least apply for the clock to be stopped,
to give time for a total rethink and planning.

What would normally happen when the ruling party is riding extreme policies to disaster is that saner heads within the party force them to drop those policies,
if need be in extreme cases replacing its leader to do so, e.g. as the Tories did, when Maggie went too far with the poll tax

However, Brexiters have now so entrenched themselves within the Tory partythat this would mean Tory MPs destroying their own party for a generation
by removing half the government and overriding a very influencial group about 80 MPs and most Tory party members & supporters, also taking on very powerful backers with huge financial interests in Brexit

Would sufficient Tory MPs really put country before party like this ?
They would need to work very closely with Labour, led by their bogeyman^^ ...
and accept that they would lose their own seats and their careers, as the Tory party would be decimated at the next GE, probably out of power for 20 years.

They might well reckon it would be more survivable for the party to blame the EU and Remainers after WTO Brexit damages the economy (for the next 10-20 years)

rather than basically admitting a string of huge mistakes

Mistigri · 15/10/2017 07:44

imo, "Liberal" Leavers is the wrong term, certainly for the Norths

By modern terminology they are more libertarian than liberal. The word "liberal" seems to have acquired the US use ie denoting people who are left of centre and socially liberal.

But if my father is anything to go by (a soft EEA brexiter, long time euro sceptic and former Liberal Pary activist) they are quite representative of old style British liberalism. This type of liberalism tends to be in favour of decentralisation and transparency and increased local democracy. It's not terribly compatible with the large supranational bodies like the EU. Some remain voting eurosceptics like David Allen Green also represent this thread of liberalism.

Personally I think the Norths have a lot of interesting stuff to say, but I find them both reprehensible human beings.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 15/10/2017 08:08

Tory MPS who oppose a hard Brexit have declared they will not back any amendments tabled by Labour’s frontbench and bearing Jeremy Corbyn’s name, but say they would be prepared to line up with amendments from like-minded Labour backbenchers.

Yeah, I noticed that. Presumably the strongest political principle of all is not to be seen 'standing shoulder to shoulder' with Jeremy Corbyn.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 15/10/2017 08:09

Keir seems to be putting up a stronger fight than previously. Maybe the glacier will eventually slide to a no Brexit position.

woman11017 · 15/10/2017 08:42

12 regional rallies for Remain yesterday. Including the bellwether north east, which is now Remain.

Anti-Brexit protesters at Monument say people have 'changed their minds' on leaving the EU

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/anti-brexit-protesters-monument-say-13762496

I can't remember a time when 12 simultaneous rallies were held in britain.

metro.co.uk/2017/10/14/thousands-march-to-protest-brexit-as-rallies-held-across-the-uk-7000592/

Inevitable silence about the rallies on bbc.

Badders08 · 15/10/2017 09:35

Just e mailed the BBC re lack of coverage

woman11017 · 15/10/2017 10:06

Hope you get a reply badders!

@faisalislam
backbench Tory (10 MPs) now cross-party amendment- 7 that I think Mcdonnell refers to-require statute, ie Commons/ Lords votes for exit deal