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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

OP posts:
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thecatfromjapan · 14/10/2017 10:51

Blush I thought I was amazingly astute. Mind you, it's reassuring to know I'm not imagining it. Grin

This thread keeps me sane - but also sad. Even when I'm not posting, I'm reading.

whatwouldrondo · 14/10/2017 10:56

The view from outside the EU, has Britain become a completely useless country? www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2115358/has-britain-become-completely-useless-country-these-daysd

"Former foreign secretary Douglas Hurd once famously declared that his country’s military strength allowed it to punch above its weight. That was back in 1993 when Britain was far more relevant to the rest of the world than it is today. Now you have Boris Johnson, nuff said."

prettybird · 14/10/2017 10:58

No - you were indeed being astute cat : it's just the fact that we are obsessive Westministenders readers that means our spidey senses are easily triggered Wink

Other people may well be taken in Sad I hope not and that they're wasting their time and money Grin

twofingerstoEverything · 14/10/2017 11:04

There are quite a few posters who now say: "I voted Remain but ... and go on to list lots of pro-Brexit 'arguments' + a little paragraph or two saying how great Brexit is actually going to be.
They remind me of the ones who say they're tired of remainers calling them thick racists when no-one has actually called them a thick racist.

HashiAsLarry · 14/10/2017 11:23

I'd noticed that too.
It's like saying if I'd known how TM would have been torn to shreds over her conference speech I'd have voted Tory in the last election.
It's doesn't stack up logically but plays well to those who don't think in those sort of constructs.

Tbf people have been called thick and racist in one homogenous mass. However a lot of people who moan about that can't understand that not being anti EU doesn't necessarily make you pro eu and homogenously mass attack remainers.

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 11:30

Yes cat .
Funny how their script has changed from Greece loving Lexiteers to 'more in sorrow than in anger' remain converts to brexit.

I've noticed too that their writers can't cope with: gardening tips, self sufficiency and gluten free baking. Grin

TheElementsSong · 14/10/2017 11:37

I voted Remain but ...

I’ve noticed plenty of those, but there’s nothing to do but take them at face value. If they say there been converted by how obviously great it’s going to be, how the EU is bullying us, how rudely Leavers have been treated, how it’s the Will Of The People... whatever the reasoning. They say they’re converts, I accept that they’re converts.

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 11:52

The biggest gap was found to be among female voters with 49 per cent of women saying the decision to leave was wrong, compared to only 40 per cent who thought it was right.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-new-eu-leave-regret-remain-yougov-times-latest-theresa-may-bad-idea-a8000156.html

We are the largest demographic group. (women) Hence our new wee brexitty friends on our female forum.

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 12:05

BJ for PM may be a squirrel tactic.

Steven Baker's new fiefdom may be almost as significant. It makes official who is running the gov.

Mistigri · 14/10/2017 12:29

there seem to be more than you'd expect on MN slowly converting to a pro-Brexit viewpoint.

You don't get an "MN viewpoint" on the EU ref board where only the convinced post.

The MN viewpoint is distinctly more anti brexit these days if the thread about food prices is anything to go by. People's purchasing power is declining and they are not happy.

Holliewantstobehot · 14/10/2017 12:44

Just watched the panorama race hate programme and am now thoroughly depressed. Interesting that the Polish family were thinking of either going back to Poland or to Scotland.

Interesting that there are suddenly so many brexit threads or threads pretending to be about something else but really brexity.

I am also tired of the assertion that all remain leavers are middleclass/well off londoners with international type jobs. I live in a rural deprived area which benefitted from lots of eu money. We also have east European immigration mostly to work on the farms. I am a single parent on benefits (ds has autism so I am his carer) and have no savings. I get by month to month. I will admit I did a languages degree which prob ably does affect my opinion on the eu.

But I feel the narrative is "those remainers aren't like us, they don't know how hard our life is etc;" Well yes I do thanks and Brexit is going to fuck my life up even more. Dd is really bright and wants to be a medical research scientist. Will she now be able to afford uni? Will she be able to get a job researching if funding isn't there? Feeling quite angry today.

If opinion polls keep moving against brexit it could get interesting. After all will of the people can change, which is precisely why referenda areally crap. It's a snapshot of how people feel at one particular point in time.

JustWanna · 14/10/2017 12:45

Delurking.
Lico is that the Vauxhall plant in Luton?

Theworldisfullofidiots · 14/10/2017 12:49

In the financial times

twitter.com/daily_politics/status/918440729277448192

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
thecatfromjapan · 14/10/2017 12:56

ElementSong That's a useful approach.

TheWorldIsFullofIdiots That is funny and depressing in equal measure.

OlennasWimple · 14/10/2017 12:58

If these are really converts to the Brexit cause, then surely they should evangelise and try to convert a few more people? But I am still waiting for a concrete example of how things will be better post-Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 12:59

Full “standstill” transition- give UK obligations of EU membership without seat at table- could be agreed in Dec
Theresa May to call for Brexit transition talks next week
UK prime minister to appeal to fellow EU leaders ahead of summit

Andrew Lillico @ andrewlillico
This appears to be precisely what I predicted we'd do during the euref. It's not really a "transition". It's more like an Art 50 extension.

Which is exactly what we need if we WANT to leave the EU every bit as much as if we want to stay in!!!

OP posts:
Lico · 14/10/2017 13:23

Just wanna:
Not sure but in the FT

www.ft.com/content/2ea88fa8-b05c-11e7-aab9-abaa44b1e130

LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 13:47

I voted Remain but ...

cf ... "I'm not a racist, but ..."

LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 13:57

flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2017/10/13/no-deal-brexit-its-already-too-late/amp/

No-deal Brexit: it’s already too late

As things stand at the moment, eighteen months from now the UK will leave the EU without any agreement on trade regulation or tariffs, either with the EU or any of the other countries with which it currently has trade agreements. The arrangements which assure the smooth running of 60 percent of our goods trade will disappear. Once we are outside the regulatory framework, many products, particularly in highly regulated areas like agriculture and pharmaceuticals, will no longer be accredited for sale in Europe. Aeroplanes will be unable to fly to and from the EU to the UK. Those goods which can still legally be traded with the EU will face lengthy customs checks. Integrated supply chains and just-in-time manufacturing processes will be severely disrupted and, in some cases, damaged beyond repair. Unless politicians do something, that’s where we are heading.

International trade and commerce doesn’t just happen. It is facilitated by a framework of agreements on tariffs, quotas and regulations. Without these, trade is either very expensive or, in some cases, simply illegal. Therefore, if the UK were to leave the EU without concluding a trade deal, things wouldn’t simply stay the same. They would be very different and very damaging.

Of course, it would be disruptive for the rest of the EU too, although it is much easier to find new suppliers and customers in a bloc of 27 countries than it is in a stand alone country with no trade deals. Even so, most of us have assumed that common sense will prevail at some point. No-one in their right mind would let such a thing happen so surely both sides will do what is necessary to between now and March 2019 to avoid it.

Incredibly, though, our government, egged on by ideologues on its own back benches, has been talking up the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, apparently as a negotiating ploy to make the EU realise that we are serious about walking away. Almost as soon as the no-deal idea was suggested, Philip Hammond said that he was not willing to set aside any money to fund it. In any organisation, that’s a sure-fire sign of a project that’s going nowhere. If the finance director won’t even stump up the cash for the planning phase, you might as well forget the whole thing. Mr Hammond said that he would wait until “the very last moment” before committing any money to prepare for a no-deal scenario. Which means it’s not going to happen because the very last moment passed some time ago, most probably before we even had the referendum.

To prepare this country for the complete removal of trading arrangements that have been in place for decades would be an immense task. The customs implications alone are massive. Ports like Dover, Folkestone and Holyhead have no customs infrastructure. They have been designed and developed on the assumption that they are, to all intents and purposes, domestic ports. The proposed inland customs area would need to be vast to cope with the number of lorries. There was already a plan to build a lorry park in Kent in anticipation of increased traffic but this has stalled after local objections and is now subject to a judicial review. It is unlikely that work will start for some time even on this modest proposal. The idea that a fully functioning inland customs processing facility could be up and running in 18 months is just fanciful.
Much has been made of technological solutions to the increased administration brought about by Brexit but the specification for the new customs IT system was written before the Brexit vote. It was future-proof to the extent that it was designed to handle around three times the current number of customs declarations. The trouble is, that number is now likely to multiply by six, with many declarations from companies that have never had to use the system before. Increasing its capacity in time for the Brexit deadline will be challenging. It may well not be ready by March 2019.

As well as infrastructure and IT, HMRC will have to take on more people. A lot more. It has estimated that some 3-5,000 new customs staff will be needed. Other departments face similar challenges. The Home Office has said that it will need at least a year to recruit and train the staff it needs to handle the additional border and immigration work. As the Institute for Government pointed out, customs alone has an impact on many public sector organisations. They will all need extra resources and organisation to deal with these changes. On top of that, new regulatory organisations will need to be built from scratch. Capability is a combination of capacity and ability. It’s not that the civil service lacks good people, it just hasn’t got enough of them for this colossal task. The British state doesn’t have the capacity to do Brexit in 18 months.

There comes a point in any project when, if a certain amount of work hasn’t already been done, there is just no way you are going to meet the deadline, no matter how much money and resource you throw at it. Some things can’t be fast-tracked. This is especially true of recruitment, training and setting up new organisations. If anyone ever finds a way of microwaving the acquisition of skills and the bonding of teams they will become very rich. For now, though, these are not processes that are easy to speed up. As a colleague of mine used to say, nine women can’t make a baby in a month. Some things just take as long as they take and there isn’t much you can do about it.

The UK had a decade to prepare for the Olympics. Brexit is a much bigger job. If we had decided to make a clean break from the EU as a well-thought out and considered policy, it would have taken us years to plan and prepare for it. We should probably have started several years ago. As it stands now, it is far too late to do anything that will have a significant impact on the chaos that would follow in the wake of a no-deal exit from the EU. However much money the government throws at the problem, there won’t be enough. It is simply too late. Philip Hammond knows it, the civil service knows it and, most probably, Michel Barnier knows it too.

JustWanna · 14/10/2017 15:21

Why did Brexit not happened in a orderly panned manner with a transition of say 5-15 -15 year? EU migrants would have continued to arrive here during that time but the UK would have had a decent chance at sorting its affairs out. It seems to me that there is actually no genuine commitment for Brexit to work. Was the government really that clueless about international trade and the GFA?

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 16:05

Liam Fox:

"As we prepare to leave the EU, we will seek to transition all existing EU trade agreements and other EU preferential arrangements.
This will ensure that the UK maintains the greatest amount of certainty, continuity and stability in our trade and investment relationships for our businesses, citizens and trading partners."

Civil servant JDD on R North's blog:
"As I have explained to him many times, that is just a crock of shit"

JDD also states that cutting & pasting of existing Eu trade deals with other countries is not possible
because it would infringe WTO rules of equal treatment
< that's a new roadblock suddenly come to light >

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 16:09

Hammond has a point:

You can build the best and the brightest customs facilities you like in Dover, the other ports, build up customs manpower and training
but if the EU27 you’ve spent a couple of years insulting & antagonising don’t match them on their side,
you will end up with infrastructure that cost billions, but still cannot perform its intended function

LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 17:01

Why did Brexit not happened in a orderly panned manner with a transition of say 5-15 -15 year?

Because by the end of that timescale 30% of people who wanted it would be dead.

The only amusing thing about the entire situation is the increasing panic of the more thoughtful Brexiteers as they realise how their dream has been hijacked by the extremes.

LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 17:06

Mention of Thatcher upthread actually made me briefly nostalgic for her Shock.

Bearing in mind she was never the EECs natural champion, I think it's clear with hindsight that she grasped the UKs best interests were as a member. Once you accept that as a fact (which, by definition, Brexiteers haven't) then it's a case of making it work for you. Which (again, with hindsight) seemed to be her approach. It may not have been what the EEC wanted but that's how clubs work.

My currently preferred best way to piss Brexiteers off is to suggest that the reason they wanted Brexit was because they couldn't handle the EU the way Mrs T did. Which, ultimately, is hard to rebut with any facts.