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Brexit

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/10/2017 12:32

And so the Zombie PM lives on.

Some might say that the Tory Party conference has been the thing that has really killed her, with one more blow needed to the head.

But had she already lost the battle within the party?

What is curious is how its now the hard liners who have got behind May. Why is this? They did so BEFORE the conference, not after May's speech. They are not known for suffering those they see as weak. They are there for target practice. Why have leopards seemingly changed their spots?

The truth is that just before and after her Florence speech Boris Johnson repeatedly undermined her and showed his authority was superior to May's. He may have backed down publically, but May backed down with policy, doing u-turns on her 'concessions' to the EU. Johnson was leading May and the Tory Party and not the other way around. That's what the conference was about and May's bad luck just played to their agenda.

May could be likened to the elderly Hindenburg, desperately trying to cling to power, and trying to appease the far right on the advise of von Papen who thought it could be controlled and contained. Whilst the right push it further and further, after each concession to them which they take as weakness, for their own political gain and shot at power. What would a successful far right leader in this country have to look like? A cut price Churchill pushing the values of fake patriotism? The historical parallel isn't hard to find and to fit to the political reality of today.

The irony emerging is that the EU Commission is starting to look like its more on our side than the EU27, tired of our nonsense and insults.

In this situation there can be no deal. Unless something drastic happens we are headed directly for a state of emergency.

The much forgotten and equally important dealing over the WTO is going as badly as the EU one. What do we expect with Liam Fox in charge and next to no accountability from the press or from parliament?

The hard right, obviously are making the calculated gamble that they have seized the hostage May away from the Liberals who had started to get her to see the reality. They will now do what they can to protect her, and support her. Afterall, why would you challenge her, if you felt you could control her? They have the perfect scapegoat and can protect their own political hides for the time being.

The most obvious sign of this, is Gove leaping to her defence in a way that is so ridiculously over the top.

The hard right have nothing to fear from a chaotic exit. Indeed they have much to profit from it. And they always have the means to leave if it gets too bad. They fear staying in the EU. Why IS that? Its almost as if many of them have something to hide...

Grants Shapp's intervention, is beginning to look like he was set up, with it being leaked that he was leading calls for a leadership election privately and had no intention of doing so publically until outted. The effect has been it has shored up her position, making it harder for May to even to resign either for personal or political reasons. It also casts any dissenters as 'traitors' whilst the hard right casts the image of the 'loyalists'.

Of course the hard right's gamble also rests on three other things; they know they are starting to lose the argument, they have done the maths and don't think they will have the numbers to ensure a hard right candidate makes the final two in a leadership battle and they think they can control the rest of the party because they fear Corbyn more.

Perhaps the best chance we have for a deal now does lie in a collapse of the government in the near future. This seems to be the position that the EU are taking by stepping up talks with Labour.

Just how much will Tory Liberals act in the best interests of the country and stand up to the hard right of the party. They have the numbers to get things through with Labour. But Labour want the government to collapse, so the balance of power ultimately relies on the hard right's support. Its hard to envisage Labour stepping up in the national interest any more than the Tory Right compromising.

I suspect the Hard Right ultimately fear the EU more than Corbyn. If a collapse happens it will be because the hard right will not compromise and they are prepared to push their luck on that, and this is the weapon they have over May. I suspect they figure they have little to lose by pursuing this direction. Its do or die for them anyway.

Of course what happens at home and what happens in the EU talks are also different things. The UK could well be promising more than they say at home, and this seems to be the case. But the infighting at home, jeopardises a deal even if one is reached by the EU commission as our diplomatic appearance through our antics and rhetoric at home, will convince the EU27 to reject it, and any compromise. Another gamble the Tory Right might be keen on to win over the domestic audience with their faux patriotism.

Of course, May could simply resign... She won't. She's a politician who lacks self awareness and arrogant in her own political ambition. A bit of a pep talk about how great she is and how she is doing things right and she believes it, as she is totally disconnected from the reality of things as the election proved in all its glory. She only listens to voices she agrees with...

So the Zombie PM lead by the De Facto PM will limp on. Its a game of chicken over who will lead to a collapse of government now between the liberals and the hard right.

At least for now. A leadership election is what is wanted by the press but not the party. The media want the drama more than the Tories.

If it hasn't changed within a month or so, the moment may have passed and it might be too late to salvage anything, such is the damage being done to our diplomatic relations. Start prepping in serious by Christmas, if we are still headed this way.

Please tell me, my reading of the situation is wrong...

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Peregrina · 13/10/2017 22:11

if it's removing health & safety checks, workers' rights, rights to nhs treatment, clean beaches without sewage, clean air .... then Brexiters should state this

You would hope that Grenfell has taught them the hard way, that we made these rules for a reason.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 22:12

I remember Maggie's downfall as being surprisingly sudden:
she had a 100+ landslide in 1987, her 3rd successive GE and seemed invincible

However, she insisted, for ideological reasons - on bringing in the poll tax, which was hugely unpopular because it cost millions of people significant sums every month

That imo was a catalyst, which then made people angry about the nhs cutbacks and the polls then said most people wanted to pay more tax, for better services.
Also, there was sleaze about Tory MPs profiting illegally from privatisation and at least one was convicted.

Once the chinks in her dam appeared, suddenly there were cracks everywhere and then the torrent crashed through and swept her away.
From hero in 1987 to a toppled zero in 1990

Remember, May doesn't have Maggie's incredible electoral record of 3 great wins: May gave away Cameron's 2015 majority
After a few month's honeymoon last year, she has been an electoral liability and embarassment

imo, if Labour had similar policies to now, but a leader like Starmer or Jarvis, they would be 50%+ in the polls
There has never been such an open goal in political terms, in modern times

LurkingHusband · 13/10/2017 22:12

How long did Thatchers de throning take?

Heseltines exit exposed the lack of cabinet involvement. But my memory was the single defining issue was ... the poll tax.

Badders08 · 13/10/2017 22:14

Yes that's my recollection.

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 22:20

Definitely the poll tax is what brought Thatcher down although people try to rewrite history and say it was the EU - but it really wasn't - the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties were still to come.

She first tried the Poll Tax out in Scotland, with the end result that it destroyed the Conservatives for a generation there - with them only just now beginning to find a way back.

I think her downfall was a matter of a few weeks once they started sharpening the knives.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 22:22

Flowers Badders and Hashi It's mitigation in the long run, and sometimes it works? Is why I am not a medic Grin

You would hope that Grenfell has taught them the hard way, that we made these rules for a reason
Exactly Peregrina ; the most powerful speech at last remain rally in London was from representative of Sikh temple and help centre at Grenfell. I'll never forget what he said.

LH my memory of thatch's culling is there was a head of steam built up by all the tory gov's crimes:
attack on miners, poll tax, Clause 28, selling off of nationalised industries; her allegiance with and ultra right eejit running america,in thrall to ultra capitalists; invoking phoney patriotism to save her bacon and the death of hundreds of servicemen as a result and her fatal misreading of the runes.
Sounds familiar.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2017 22:23

peregrina Judging from threads here and elsewhere...

Not a proper disaster, because the victims mostly looked furrin, so the scandal was that they were here in the first place,
in subsidised housing, which "British" people supposedly can't get
Then those foreigners grumble when they get burned to death, instead of being grateful they were allowed in

Fury at the suggestion that any surviving illegal immigrants should escape deportation - bad enough they escaped the fire.

More envious fury at pictures of the new flats where some will be rehoused (the luxurious ones shown are NOT where they'll be living)

RedToothBrush · 13/10/2017 22:28

Lobster Plot.

Hammond isnt just a remainer. Hes a remainer who hangs out with George and is plotting.

I do wonder whether calling the EU the enemy and then apologising later today was choreographed and deliberate.

Westminstenders: Zombies don't have friends. Is Johnson the de facto PM now?
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woman11017 · 13/10/2017 22:34

today was choreographed and deliberate Yep. Grin JC is going to be pissed off. "Wait and watch" won't necessarily work for labour.

Peregrina · 13/10/2017 22:35

Thatcher had one advantage over May in that she was elected as party leader about 4 years before she won the election. She had chance to get the measure of the party before having to face the public as PM. May, sadly or not, lacked the gumption to know that however much she wanted to be PM, now was not the time for her. I am quite confident that she has already wrecked her political career. I can't see her doing a Ted Heath and going to the back benches for a long sulk.

woman11017 · 13/10/2017 22:40

She had chance to get the measure of the party before having to face the public as PM

Good point.

I do like this geezer:
@davidallengreen
Oh, what is the point tweeting about Brexit?
Anyone with a mind knows how it is going, without commentary.
And the mindless don't care.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 00:14

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/13/tory-party-cliff-edge-brexit

Hammond is right:

You can build the best and the brightest customs facilities you like in Dover,
but if the EU27 you’ve spent a couple of years antagonising don’t match them on their side,
yours will end up the most dysfunctionally desolate facility since Michael Jackson’s Neverland.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 00:16

Taking back control of our democracy, Brexiter style
A well-supported blog by a Tory councillor
https://www.federaljack.com/ebooks/eu%20truth/traitors.html
who wants

“the Treason Felony Act be amended to include the following offences.

“To imagine, devise, promote or encourage others, to support UK becoming a member of the European Union.
To conspire with foreign powers to make the UK or part of the UK become a member of the EU.”

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2017 00:35

Mike Smithson @ msmithsonpb
Robert. @Peston says it's no longer an absurd notion that BoJo could be PM within weeks.
Sleep well

Tim Shipman @ Shipperunbound
Two people said the same thing to me today

Do you think all the current Tory MPs would be willing to serve under PM Johnson?

Just pondering exactly what it might take for defections.

Johnson as PM is frightening prospect...

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Badders08 · 14/10/2017 07:28

Bojo? Surely not??

LurkingHusband · 14/10/2017 07:28

Johnson as PM is frightening prospect.

Who for ? He might make the Tories even more unpopular ...

frumpety · 14/10/2017 07:59

I would like to see Bojo given the job about 24 hours after the Brexit impact assessment documents are made public knowledge , that to me would be perfect timing Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 08:12

"Fuck the DUP !"

I'll say that, because gay rights marchers in NI cannot - allegedly it is a hate crime....
whereas Loyalists burning effigies of nationalist politicians is not
NI politics as usual ?

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/13/woman-could-face-hate-prosecution-over-anti-dup-banner

frumpety · 14/10/2017 08:21

I would rather not Big and my standards have been woefully low in the past Grin

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 09:59

frumpety Grin likewise.

@J_amesp
You see, the damage is so far done this is already happening. Brexit passed its tipping out much earlier this year. Expect more.

@SkyNewsBreak
Sky News understands British nuclear industry is preparing for 'no deal' Brexit scenario by relocating some nuclear materials around Europe

woman11017 · 14/10/2017 10:01

@Daily_Plebeian
In mid 2013 I contacted Europe Direct to ask their advice on a UK national's asylum in the EU if Brexit happened. They indicated it possible

@J_amesp
It’s fair to say Britain is at the point where holding a proEU view is incompatible with life here. Perhaps seeking asylum is a good idea.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2017 10:18

I've jokingly referred to myself a few times as a "Brexit Fluchtling" (Brexit refugee)
This may become no longer a joke

thecatfromjapan · 14/10/2017 10:19

I'm just nipping back here for a minute to say I think I've spotted a new tactic amongst our Brexit friends.

Obviously, I'm not saying that anyone could be posting disingenuously of anything but ...

There are quite a few posters who now say: "I voted Remain but ... and go on to list lots of pro-Brexit 'arguments' + a little paragraph or two saying how great Brexit is actually going to be.

Interesting. Of course, they might be for real - there have to be some, I guess, but considering the fact that the polls seem to be going the other way, there seem to be more than you'd expect on MN slowly converting to a pro-Brexit viewpoint.

lalalonglegs · 14/10/2017 10:37

Ha ha - yes, I've noticed some alleged Remainers on other threads who have changed their allegiance... and blame it all on the Remoan-y, anti-democratic, militant Remainers who should just try "and get on with it". It is curious and not entirely convincing.

prettybird · 14/10/2017 10:46

I've also seen that on some FB groups. They tend to get torn to shreds and evidence found that they were always Leave (eg membership of Leave/Britain First groups - and even previous posts where they had mentioned voting Leave).